4 ms·

Don’t understand the downvotes, this is literally how societal consensus used to be built

by MrMan 5y ago

Natsu 5y ago
The first sentence was terrible. The rest of it was reasonable but the thing is people don't like being manipulated. They may not always know the precise terms of the manipulation but public health is not somewhere I like to see a lot of manipulation. Now, they're not wrong that people take things out of context, that's why I generally approach things by adding context. Yes, there are one in a million risks with vaccines, give or take a bit, but there are much higher covid risks. That's why I don't try to manufacture consent, I try to give people the most honest, brutal factual assessment I can and let them assess the facts honestly. I will poke holes in their theories and push them on the points that are just plain false, but I won't try to BS them with false confidence or try to manipulate them with social proof. Techniques like that may work for a time but they don't last. It's better to build on a foundation of honesty.
- deodorel 5y ago
  While reasonable, your statement ignore the fact that humans have issues considering the difference between a 1 in the million risk and 1 in 100000 (made up numbers). Many are afraid of flying and drive instead even if the risks are way higher driving.
  - benmmurphy 5y ago
    It is funny you mentioned driving because if you are in the 18-29 year age group you have a much larger risk of dying from driving (or other people driving?) than you do from COVID. Deaths in the 18-29 age group in the US: 2253. I believe this figure is over a longer period than 12 months. So this is going to overestimate covid risk when comparing to 12 months of driving fatalities: Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... The number of people in the 18-24 age group in the US: 43,351,778 This is a narrower group than where deaths are coming from so this is going to overestimate covid risk. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_Sta... Covid Death risk per 100,000 = 5.2 Motor vehicle fatality risk for the 15-24 year old age group: 14.1 per 100,000 Source: https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/historical-fatality-trends/deaths-by-age-group/ https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/historical-fatalit...
    - jollybean 5y ago
      Yes, but you don't 'pass along' 'car accient death' to others. COVID's 'danger' isn't so much it's individual lethality - it's that it's highly contagious. 'Young People' are active reservoirs of the disease, and who will pass it on to others. It's why they have to obey social distancing etc. - even if it's not really going to be very dangerous to them.
      - Natsu 5y ago
        > Yes, but you don't 'pass along' 'car accient death' to others. Actually you might, if you were the dangerous driver, just not to very many others and it can't spread further than that. And yes, that's a very good point about the risk for kids that's not often appreciated. That's one of the points I try to make people understand, along with the idea that vaccines aren't perfect (so you can't just immediately drop every precaution once vaxxed), etc.
- jollybean 5y ago
  The first sentence is accurate; you say you want 'honesty' but are unable to deal with very simple factual information yourself, because it's unpalatable? Otherwise, you are misunderstanding the nature of Public Communications. The idea that somehow sidelining some confusing information, to focus on simple messaging is somehow 'dishonest' is wrong and naive. It would cause massive harm. FYI - the strongest example of this is with masks. It's why they told you 'Mask were not necessary' at first (because 300M buying masks in a panic would negate the ability of doctors to get masks), but then, as supplies became available, and the marginal value of masks would make sense for the general public - the CDC turned upside down and told you masks were essential. That's Dr. Fauci doing his job. You have 350 Million people to get vaccinated and you have to communicate to them the availability and safety of vaccinations. About 1/2 of the population has some degree of literacy and education, they watch the news, they roughly believe the government. They watch Dr. Fauci somewhat consistently and roughly understand what he is saying. They are compliant on some level. But the other 1/2 are not. Millions don't have the capacity to parse through the information, either in terms of intellectual foundation, vocabulary, etc.. Millions don't watch any news. Millions don't believe anything the government says. Millions believe in some other conspiracy theory. Millions are lazy and don't care. Millions are in social or work environments that reinforce all of this. Millions - even among the literate camp are unnecessarily skeptical about vaccines. ... We're in the middle of a pandemic mass killing elderly, we finally have a vaccine, it's on the news every single night, on every station in, in Canada - and yet only 1/2 (!!!) of eligible seniors are showing up to get vaccine in Toronto? It's similar elsewhere. That's really bad. I have friends who don't really understand what is being said about the risks of AZ vaccine, others making irrational claims and 'waiting out' for their preferred vaccine which is literally 100% against the often repeated policy of the government and scientific consensus. Dr. Bonnie Henry of BC goes on TV every 2 days and gives an amazingly detailed presentation about COVID updates. I usually watch it. Epidemioligal graphs etc.. You know how many viewers there are? About 10 0000. 10K viewers among 6 million target citizens. Now that particular form of messaging isn't going to be remotely sufficient in getting the word out is it? ... So how do you communicate important information with people that are too dumb, incapable, unwilling, irrationally skeptical, not paying attention, because it's their lives depend on it? Popular individuals with social credibility move masses - not scientists or even 'facts'. Obviously, messaging needs to be truthful and credible, but in a simplified format. You market the idea using communications that will get the message across, by people that have credibility within groups, and who can draw enough attention. Oprah is beloved and respected among huge numbers of people, particularly African American women who are considerably more likely to be vaxx skeptical than other groups - and who are also way more likely to die from COVID. It's similar with politics - do you remember her endorsement of Obama: 'He Is The One' ? Not only that, Oprah and her communications team are Master Communicators. She knows exactly how to say something the right way, to get a message across. Otherwise, entertainers and athletes are who people pay attention to and look up to. You want to get people down to the vax centre: get Michael Jordan there. In some places they are having lotteries - get vaxxed - win a million dollars. That's brilliant. If children were a target of COVID and neededed to get vaxxed then if I were president I would practically 'executive order' Marvel and DC comics hers to make little vax vignettes with Superman getting vaccinated: 'Even Superman Needs His Vaccine, Did You Get Yours? Ask Your Parents'. If the government were more effective in communicating, they'd be addressing the 'bottom 50%' using better methods. To think that we use more effective strategies to sell breakfast cereal and iPhones ... than we do critical, life-saving vaccines is kind of pathetic.

Don’t understand the downvotes, this is literally how societal consensus used to be built

by MrMan 5y ago

Don’t understand the downvotes, this is literally how societal consensus used to be built

The first sentence was terrible. The rest of it was reasonable but the thing is people don't like being manipulated. They may not always know the precise terms of the manipulation but public health is not somewhere I like to see a lot of manipulation. Now, they're not wrong that people take things out of context, that's why I generally approach things by adding context. Yes, there are one in a million risks with vaccines, give or take a bit, but there are much higher covid risks. That's why I don't try to manufacture consent, I try to give people the most honest, brutal factual assessment I can and let them assess the facts honestly. I will poke holes in their theories and push them on the points that are just plain false, but I won't try to BS them with false confidence or try to manipulate them with social proof. Techniques like that may work for a time but they don't last. It's better to build on a foundation of honesty.

deodorel 5y ago
While reasonable, your statement ignore the fact that humans have issues considering the difference between a 1 in the million risk and 1 in 100000 (made up numbers). Many are afraid of flying and drive instead even if the risks are way higher driving.
- benmmurphy 5y ago
  It is funny you mentioned driving because if you are in the 18-29 year age group you have a much larger risk of dying from driving (or other people driving?) than you do from COVID. Deaths in the 18-29 age group in the US: 2253. I believe this figure is over a longer period than 12 months. So this is going to overestimate covid risk when comparing to 12 months of driving fatalities: Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... The number of people in the 18-24 age group in the US: 43,351,778 This is a narrower group than where deaths are coming from so this is going to overestimate covid risk. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_Sta... Covid Death risk per 100,000 = 5.2 Motor vehicle fatality risk for the 15-24 year old age group: 14.1 per 100,000 Source: https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/historical-fatality-trends/deaths-by-age-group/ https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/historical-fatalit...
  - jollybean 5y ago
    Yes, but you don't 'pass along' 'car accient death' to others. COVID's 'danger' isn't so much it's individual lethality - it's that it's highly contagious. 'Young People' are active reservoirs of the disease, and who will pass it on to others. It's why they have to obey social distancing etc. - even if it's not really going to be very dangerous to them.
    - Natsu 5y ago
      > Yes, but you don't 'pass along' 'car accient death' to others. Actually you might, if you were the dangerous driver, just not to very many others and it can't spread further than that. And yes, that's a very good point about the risk for kids that's not often appreciated. That's one of the points I try to make people understand, along with the idea that vaccines aren't perfect (so you can't just immediately drop every precaution once vaxxed), etc.
jollybean 5y ago
The first sentence is accurate; you say you want 'honesty' but are unable to deal with very simple factual information yourself, because it's unpalatable? Otherwise, you are misunderstanding the nature of Public Communications. The idea that somehow sidelining some confusing information, to focus on simple messaging is somehow 'dishonest' is wrong and naive. It would cause massive harm. FYI - the strongest example of this is with masks. It's why they told you 'Mask were not necessary' at first (because 300M buying masks in a panic would negate the ability of doctors to get masks), but then, as supplies became available, and the marginal value of masks would make sense for the general public - the CDC turned upside down and told you masks were essential. That's Dr. Fauci doing his job. You have 350 Million people to get vaccinated and you have to communicate to them the availability and safety of vaccinations. About 1/2 of the population has some degree of literacy and education, they watch the news, they roughly believe the government. They watch Dr. Fauci somewhat consistently and roughly understand what he is saying. They are compliant on some level. But the other 1/2 are not. Millions don't have the capacity to parse through the information, either in terms of intellectual foundation, vocabulary, etc.. Millions don't watch any news. Millions don't believe anything the government says. Millions believe in some other conspiracy theory. Millions are lazy and don't care. Millions are in social or work environments that reinforce all of this. Millions - even among the literate camp are unnecessarily skeptical about vaccines. ... We're in the middle of a pandemic mass killing elderly, we finally have a vaccine, it's on the news every single night, on every station in, in Canada - and yet only 1/2 (!!!) of eligible seniors are showing up to get vaccine in Toronto? It's similar elsewhere. That's really bad. I have friends who don't really understand what is being said about the risks of AZ vaccine, others making irrational claims and 'waiting out' for their preferred vaccine which is literally 100% against the often repeated policy of the government and scientific consensus. Dr. Bonnie Henry of BC goes on TV every 2 days and gives an amazingly detailed presentation about COVID updates. I usually watch it. Epidemioligal graphs etc.. You know how many viewers there are? About 10 0000. 10K viewers among 6 million target citizens. Now that particular form of messaging isn't going to be remotely sufficient in getting the word out is it? ... So how do you communicate important information with people that are too dumb, incapable, unwilling, irrationally skeptical, not paying attention, because it's their lives depend on it? Popular individuals with social credibility move masses - not scientists or even 'facts'. Obviously, messaging needs to be truthful and credible, but in a simplified format. You market the idea using communications that will get the message across, by people that have credibility within groups, and who can draw enough attention. Oprah is beloved and respected among huge numbers of people, particularly African American women who are considerably more likely to be vaxx skeptical than other groups - and who are also way more likely to die from COVID. It's similar with politics - do you remember her endorsement of Obama: 'He Is The One' ? Not only that, Oprah and her communications team are Master Communicators. She knows exactly how to say something the right way, to get a message across. Otherwise, entertainers and athletes are who people pay attention to and look up to. You want to get people down to the vax centre: get Michael Jordan there. In some places they are having lotteries - get vaxxed - win a million dollars. That's brilliant. If children were a target of COVID and neededed to get vaxxed then if I were president I would practically 'executive order' Marvel and DC comics hers to make little vax vignettes with Superman getting vaccinated: 'Even Superman Needs His Vaccine, Did You Get Yours? Ask Your Parents'. If the government were more effective in communicating, they'd be addressing the 'bottom 50%' using better methods. To think that we use more effective strategies to sell breakfast cereal and iPhones ... than we do critical, life-saving vaccines is kind of pathetic.