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While I strongly believe in vaccines, I note that the Dallas, Texas (USA) area has seen similar improvements, and we’re hardly a high-vaccination area. Vaccines

While I strongly believe in vaccines, I note that the Dallas, Texas (USA) area has seen similar improvements, and we’re hardly a high-vaccination area. Vaccines surely help, but there seems to be an additional force beyond 1. vaccination rates and 2. natural immunity that could be inferred based on data-informed infection rates. Almost every pandemic measure has been eliminated in Texas the past two months, and the fatality, positivity, and hospitalization rates have kept going down. (The state has prevented local jurisdictions from extending measures.) My guess is that asymptomatic infection rates may have been far higher than what the professionals believe or herd immunity happens at considerably lower levels than believed. I don’t know how else to explain this. For backup, here’s various plots I’m making from official state data. The hospitalizations are probably the most reliable metric, and like the other metrics, they are just falling off a cliff. https://www.arencambre.com/covid-19-stats-for-dallas-and-texas/ https://www.arencambre.com/covid-19-stats-for-dallas-and-tex...

ceph_ 5y ago
You really trying to say it isn't the vaccine. When vaccine availability is the only positive thing that changed?
- kapp_in_life 5y ago
  We're also entering the summer months which I hazily remember somehow negatively impacting Covid-19's ability to spread last year.
  - igetspam 5y ago
    I challenge your hazy memory with a "false." Late spring was when we started seeing infections. Summer being hot was what we were told would help. The data showed otherwise. As you've provided none of your own, I'll go ahead and do the same.
    - Izkata 5y ago
      There's a few states where the drop in the summer was really obvious, like Illinois and New York, and others that didn't spike until the fall, like Washington and Montana. Cases being low in the summer is common in the northern states, which is probably what GP is hazily remembering.
      - kapp_in_life 5y ago
        Ah that would be it, thanks!
  - AuthorizedCust 5y ago
    It spreads in the summer. Look at my plots (link above) for Texas’s summer surge. Was happening when I was a Boy Scout summer camp. Kind of weird to be in that communal environment at that time (albeit outdoors mainly, where spread is unusual).
- AuthorizedCust 5y ago
  No. I’m saying our vaccination rate is far from herd-immunity levels and low enough that experts have pushed back the projected herd immunity date considerably. The other things are two large infection surges. Perhaps prevalence and/or power of natural immunity are higher than thought?
corpMaverick 5y ago
How do you know you know Dallas is not a high vaccination area? We only have data at the state level. It may be that the urban areas have high vaccination rates while the rural areas have vaccination rates. The big improvements are for sure a combination vaccination, natural immunity and people who are still using masks and social distancing.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > We only have data at the state level False, e.g.: https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/texas/dallas-county/48113/ https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-track...
- AuthorizedCust 5y ago
  It’s lower than expected in Dallas.
foobiekr 5y ago
https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/texas/dallas-county/48113/ https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-track... Dallas does not seem half bad in terms of vaccination rate.
- AuthorizedCust 5y ago
  It’s much worse than expected, so they have already pushed back herd immunity dates: https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2021/05/08/dallas-reaches-herd-immunity-at-80-immunity-we-are-at-35/ https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2021/05/08/dal...
andred14 5y ago
Lol, science is not be something we have to believe in. There should be straight forward proof of this new virus as an example but there is none. Having to believe is not science it's a religion...
dragonwriter 5y ago
> While I strongly believe in vaccines, I note that the Dallas, Texas (USA) area has seen similar improvements, and we’re hardly a high-vaccination area. With 45%+ of adults with at least one dose and 35%+ fully vaccinated, its not bad either (and most of TX, by population, seems to be innthe same neighborhood.) Given that almost everyplace has (through a combination of formal policy and swlf-selection) tended to prioritize people either at risk by age or health condition or in and occupation posing a high spread risk, and catching asymptomatic vases is pretty hit or miss because surveillance never got that good, you’d expect a lot of the gains in deaths and reported cases to be in that first third of adult vaccinations.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  The Brazil study was done with a less effective vaccine than the ones distributed in Dallas. 75% of that might not be far from about half with an mRNA vaccine.
- AuthorizedCust 5y ago
  Look at the plots in my link above. The rates have been low or falling off a cliff for a long time. Again, not doubting efficacy of vaccines. I’m proud to be fully vaccinated. But there’s something else at play.
  - mike_hearn 5y ago
    There's also a new issue which will make determining vaccine effectiveness in the USA very difficult. The CDC has changed how COVID cases are defined, but only for people who are vaccinated. Specifically, reports of 'vaccine breakthrough' i.e. someone who tests positive after being vaccinated, are now only being processed if they: * Are positive with a CT < 25 and * Result in hospitalization or death People who aren't vaccinated on the other hand are counted as being "sick" with COVID if they test positive with a CT < ~40+ (exact values vary by lab) and don't need to be hospitalized or have any symptoms at all. PCR cycle thresholds are exponents. Each cycle doubles the quantity of what you're looking for. Thus a positive at a CT of 40 is drastically different to a positive at a CT of 25. You could inject people with water and using this standard, you would see an enormous effect. Clearly this sort of thing is not sound science and will result in time series that show the CDC what it very much wants to see, rather than what's actually happening. This type of distortion keeps happening with COVID related research, and it's resulted in me no longer trusting it (see [1] for more examples of what I've seen). Not a single figure or data point about this disease can be taken for granted because so often when the details are investigated, there turns out to be some ridiculous catch or unscientific practice being deployed. It's also not just random incompetence because it always seems to be working towards the same end: making COVID seem more dangerous and getting more people to take vaccines. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27231636 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27231636

ceph_ 5y ago

You really trying to say it isn't the vaccine. When vaccine availability is the only positive thing that changed?

kapp_in_life 5y ago
We're also entering the summer months which I hazily remember somehow negatively impacting Covid-19's ability to spread last year.
- igetspam 5y ago
  I challenge your hazy memory with a "false." Late spring was when we started seeing infections. Summer being hot was what we were told would help. The data showed otherwise. As you've provided none of your own, I'll go ahead and do the same.
  - Izkata 5y ago
    There's a few states where the drop in the summer was really obvious, like Illinois and New York, and others that didn't spike until the fall, like Washington and Montana. Cases being low in the summer is common in the northern states, which is probably what GP is hazily remembering.
    - kapp_in_life 5y ago
      Ah that would be it, thanks!
- AuthorizedCust 5y ago
  It spreads in the summer. Look at my plots (link above) for Texas’s summer surge. Was happening when I was a Boy Scout summer camp. Kind of weird to be in that communal environment at that time (albeit outdoors mainly, where spread is unusual).
AuthorizedCust 5y ago
No. I’m saying our vaccination rate is far from herd-immunity levels and low enough that experts have pushed back the projected herd immunity date considerably. The other things are two large infection surges. Perhaps prevalence and/or power of natural immunity are higher than thought?

corpMaverick 5y ago

How do you know you know Dallas is not a high vaccination area? We only have data at the state level. It may be that the urban areas have high vaccination rates while the rural areas have vaccination rates. The big improvements are for sure a combination vaccination, natural immunity and people who are still using masks and social distancing.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> We only have data at the state level False, e.g.: https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/texas/dallas-county/48113/ https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-track...
AuthorizedCust 5y ago
It’s lower than expected in Dallas.

foobiekr 5y ago

https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/texas/dallas-county/48113/ https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-track... Dallas does not seem half bad in terms of vaccination rate.

AuthorizedCust 5y ago
It’s much worse than expected, so they have already pushed back herd immunity dates: https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2021/05/08/dallas-reaches-herd-immunity-at-80-immunity-we-are-at-35/ https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2021/05/08/dal...

andred14 5y ago

Lol, science is not be something we have to believe in. There should be straight forward proof of this new virus as an example but there is none. Having to believe is not science it's a religion...

dragonwriter 5y ago

> While I strongly believe in vaccines, I note that the Dallas, Texas (USA) area has seen similar improvements, and we’re hardly a high-vaccination area. With 45%+ of adults with at least one dose and 35%+ fully vaccinated, its not bad either (and most of TX, by population, seems to be innthe same neighborhood.) Given that almost everyplace has (through a combination of formal policy and swlf-selection) tended to prioritize people either at risk by age or health condition or in and occupation posing a high spread risk, and catching asymptomatic vases is pretty hit or miss because surveillance never got that good, you’d expect a lot of the gains in deaths and reported cases to be in that first third of adult vaccinations.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
The Brazil study was done with a less effective vaccine than the ones distributed in Dallas. 75% of that might not be far from about half with an mRNA vaccine.
AuthorizedCust 5y ago
Look at the plots in my link above. The rates have been low or falling off a cliff for a long time. Again, not doubting efficacy of vaccines. I’m proud to be fully vaccinated. But there’s something else at play.
- mike_hearn 5y ago
  There's also a new issue which will make determining vaccine effectiveness in the USA very difficult. The CDC has changed how COVID cases are defined, but only for people who are vaccinated. Specifically, reports of 'vaccine breakthrough' i.e. someone who tests positive after being vaccinated, are now only being processed if they: * Are positive with a CT < 25 and * Result in hospitalization or death People who aren't vaccinated on the other hand are counted as being "sick" with COVID if they test positive with a CT < ~40+ (exact values vary by lab) and don't need to be hospitalized or have any symptoms at all. PCR cycle thresholds are exponents. Each cycle doubles the quantity of what you're looking for. Thus a positive at a CT of 40 is drastically different to a positive at a CT of 25. You could inject people with water and using this standard, you would see an enormous effect. Clearly this sort of thing is not sound science and will result in time series that show the CDC what it very much wants to see, rather than what's actually happening. This type of distortion keeps happening with COVID related research, and it's resulted in me no longer trusting it (see [1] for more examples of what I've seen). Not a single figure or data point about this disease can be taken for granted because so often when the details are investigated, there turns out to be some ridiculous catch or unscientific practice being deployed. It's also not just random incompetence because it always seems to be working towards the same end: making COVID seem more dangerous and getting more people to take vaccines. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27231636 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27231636