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I think most of the evidence contradicts this. My suspicion is that if we continue to progress at the same rate or accelerate, in 1000 years we (assuming we are

by kiba 5y ago

I think most of the evidence contradicts this. My suspicion is that if we continue to progress at the same rate or accelerate, in 1000 years we (assuming we are still recognizably human) will look back at our understanding of reality right now as nearly completely wrong. Most of the evidence? We haven't found any new physics phenomenon from which we can derive new technology. There's no known or theoretical ways for us to traverse to different realities let alone prove or disprove such existence, for example. This makes a lot of assumptions, including that intelligent species don't accelerate quickly into something unrecognizable as they evolve to more advancement, or that our model of spacetime is basically right and there isn't much more to expand into besides our sparse region of reality. Just because we can imagine something doesn't make it possible.

colordrops 5y ago
I'm referring to historical evidence. At any point in history other than recent, our understanding of reality has been completely revised since then. And the extrapolation is that the same trend will continue. We've got zero evidence whatsover that we've found core models that can't be overridden by further discovery, and eventually made obsolete in whole by large paradigm shifts.
- Normal_gaussian 5y ago
  I will happily argue there is pretty strong historical evidence our models are correct. In my amateur trip through philosophy from Plato to Wittgenstein I've seen a lot of acknowledgements by the intelligencia of a generation as to what is presumed, convenient, or constructed fact and what is actual fact. Paradigm shifts in thinking have gotten repeatedly smaller over the written record, and would hardly be considered a paradigm shift by previous generations.
- Delk 5y ago
  That would be true if the development of our understanding had happened at a linear pace. It hasn't, though. Our understanding of the physical universe has grown so much within the last hundred or couple hundred years that I'm not sure understanding had grown equally much even throughout the entire preceding human history. At least you'd have to go pretty far in history. With accelerating growth of understanding you will, at some point, get to "mostly correct". I don't know if we're there yet but you can't extrapolate linearly from history that we aren't.
  - colordrops 5y ago
    I don't see how the pace of understanding is important. It presumes that we are somehow getting closer to the "truth", the absolute nature of reality. That is not how science works. It says nothing of "truth" - that's the realm of religion and philosophy. It builds models that can be tested empirically, refined and sometimes replaced. The acceleration of the last couple hundred years only says that we are getting better at refining the current model to match current testing capabilities, but it doesn't make the model impervious to some bit of information we could discovery that destroys its entire validity. The Catholic church did great a refining their model of reality and making it more internally self-consistent, but it doesn't mean that it's the same thing as the truth. Neither is a particular scientific model, and it is just as prone to being eventually dismantled or replaced. One pathological example that could overturn our entire understanding of the physical world is finding out that we are in a simulation. You'd think you were "mostly correct" until you are "100% wrong". Not suggesting we are in a simulation, but it's an example that shows that as long as the possibility exists that we can discover something that overturns our current models, there's no way we can say we are "close to the truth". It's pompous and presumptuous.
    - kiba 5y ago
      Again, just because it's possible that there's more to cover doesn't make it true. I don't see how the pace of understanding is important. It presumes that we are somehow getting closer to the "truth", the absolute nature of reality. That is not how science works. It says nothing of "truth" OK, you can argue semantic all you want, but science is pretty much the closest thing we have to 'truth'. The acceleration of the last couple hundred years only says that we are getting better at refining the current model to match current testing capabilities, but it doesn't make the model impervious to some bit of information we could discovery that destroys its entire validity. No. Newton's Law isn't invalidated just because we came up with relativity. It's useful enough that we still use it to calculate orbit and teach students and do a kazillion things with it. It is incorrect to assume that one day in the future that some new theory will destroy our previous understanding and invalidate everything we know.
- titzer 5y ago
  You're right that we've repeatedly revised understandings of reality that were based on mysticism and voodoo. But understandings of reality based on Science have only been refined and updated, rather than replaced. Newtonian physics is still accurate for day-to-day purposes. Similarly, the quantum nature of light isn't important for optics, nor steam or internal combustion engines, physical machines, radio, or even fast networks. Electricity concepts like voltage and current are still madly useful. Scientific understanding has been about filling in fine details about the very small and very large, not throwing everything out the window every 5 years.

by kiba 5y ago

colordrops 5y ago

I'm referring to historical evidence. At any point in history other than recent, our understanding of reality has been completely revised since then. And the extrapolation is that the same trend will continue. We've got zero evidence whatsover that we've found core models that can't be overridden by further discovery, and eventually made obsolete in whole by large paradigm shifts.

Normal_gaussian 5y ago
I will happily argue there is pretty strong historical evidence our models are correct. In my amateur trip through philosophy from Plato to Wittgenstein I've seen a lot of acknowledgements by the intelligencia of a generation as to what is presumed, convenient, or constructed fact and what is actual fact. Paradigm shifts in thinking have gotten repeatedly smaller over the written record, and would hardly be considered a paradigm shift by previous generations.
Delk 5y ago
That would be true if the development of our understanding had happened at a linear pace. It hasn't, though. Our understanding of the physical universe has grown so much within the last hundred or couple hundred years that I'm not sure understanding had grown equally much even throughout the entire preceding human history. At least you'd have to go pretty far in history. With accelerating growth of understanding you will, at some point, get to "mostly correct". I don't know if we're there yet but you can't extrapolate linearly from history that we aren't.
- colordrops 5y ago
  I don't see how the pace of understanding is important. It presumes that we are somehow getting closer to the "truth", the absolute nature of reality. That is not how science works. It says nothing of "truth" - that's the realm of religion and philosophy. It builds models that can be tested empirically, refined and sometimes replaced. The acceleration of the last couple hundred years only says that we are getting better at refining the current model to match current testing capabilities, but it doesn't make the model impervious to some bit of information we could discovery that destroys its entire validity. The Catholic church did great a refining their model of reality and making it more internally self-consistent, but it doesn't mean that it's the same thing as the truth. Neither is a particular scientific model, and it is just as prone to being eventually dismantled or replaced. One pathological example that could overturn our entire understanding of the physical world is finding out that we are in a simulation. You'd think you were "mostly correct" until you are "100% wrong". Not suggesting we are in a simulation, but it's an example that shows that as long as the possibility exists that we can discover something that overturns our current models, there's no way we can say we are "close to the truth". It's pompous and presumptuous.
  - kiba 5y ago
    Again, just because it's possible that there's more to cover doesn't make it true. I don't see how the pace of understanding is important. It presumes that we are somehow getting closer to the "truth", the absolute nature of reality. That is not how science works. It says nothing of "truth" OK, you can argue semantic all you want, but science is pretty much the closest thing we have to 'truth'. The acceleration of the last couple hundred years only says that we are getting better at refining the current model to match current testing capabilities, but it doesn't make the model impervious to some bit of information we could discovery that destroys its entire validity. No. Newton's Law isn't invalidated just because we came up with relativity. It's useful enough that we still use it to calculate orbit and teach students and do a kazillion things with it. It is incorrect to assume that one day in the future that some new theory will destroy our previous understanding and invalidate everything we know.
titzer 5y ago
You're right that we've repeatedly revised understandings of reality that were based on mysticism and voodoo. But understandings of reality based on Science have only been refined and updated, rather than replaced. Newtonian physics is still accurate for day-to-day purposes. Similarly, the quantum nature of light isn't important for optics, nor steam or internal combustion engines, physical machines, radio, or even fast networks. Electricity concepts like voltage and current are still madly useful. Scientific understanding has been about filling in fine details about the very small and very large, not throwing everything out the window every 5 years.