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One issue I have with this article is the assumption that this is about China, or that China is the appropriate target (if the lab leak theory is true). One th

One issue I have with this article is the assumption that this is about China, or that China is the appropriate target (if the lab leak theory is true). One thing that's been a bit confusing to me in this is why the "lab leak" hypothesis is discussed so much as the "Chinese lab leak" hypothesis and not as the "US-Chinese experimental virology" hypothesis. Yes, the lab was in China, and yes, the lab leak hypothesis involves a security failure in that lab. However, if it is true (and I'm not even sure it can be shown to be true beyond a reasonable doubt at this point, which is another reason I don't expect economic retaliation of any form), the broader problems involve a broader funding and scientific community around the Chinese lab, in a sort of circles or levels of closeness to Wuhan. What about the cover up and/or pushback from US scientists, either the Wuhan collaborators in particular, or individuals more broadly? What about US NIH/DHS funding of gain-of-function research? Etc etc etc. Who, in particular, should retaliation be pointed at? China? China and the US? The Wuhan lab and their international collaborators? The academic-industrial complex? There's plenty of blame to go around (if the lab leak theory is true, which it might not be), and it's pretty diffuse (which is another reason, along with the passage of time, I suspect the origins of the pandemic will probably remain a mystery for a long time if not forever).

pasabagi 5y ago
The solution to your confusion is geopolitics. Everybody knows if it was a lab leak, we'll never know, because the CCP would never admit it. What's more, even if it's proven to not be a lab leak, it should still absolutely prompt the reassessment of how we work with infectious diseases. The fact that such a large number of prominent scientists even think it's plausible that a cutting edge virology lab could leak a virus this deadly (and that viruses have leaked before) means this is a sector that direly needs regulation. So the rational conclusion you've drawn is basically valid whether or not there's an investigation. And since there's never going to be any proof either way, the obvious motivation for the way this has been framed and pushed is about geopolitical tensions between China and the US, which have been rising for a long time, even before COVID. I remember listening to a presentation, about a book called (pretentiously) Thucylides Trap'[0] where one particularly deranged woman was advocating for a war against China, the kicker being, she was a US military employee, a strategist, and she said multiple times that this was a normal position in the defense establishment. These morons exist, and they tend to accumulate in foreign policy and defense establishments, and the way they operate is by leaking 'intelligence documents' to the press, who then publish it just like they published the 'leaked intelligence' about Iraq twenty years ago, to awful effect. It's like the human centipede of sourcing, but instead of getting less substantial with each person the material is passed through, it gets more and more believable and concrete as it gets bounced between spooks, hacks, and quacks, even though there are no new facts, and everybody knew the whole idea was a priori irrelevant anyway.
- perl4ever 5y ago
  >Thucylides Is that your spelling or hers? I think it's Thucydides.
  - pasabagi 5y ago
    My spelling (not a classicist, also not great at spelling).
passivate 5y ago
It's a mud fight. Many countries have succeeded in convincing chunks of their population that China should be viewed (and by extension, treated) as an enemy. I too doubt anything major (armed conflict) will happen, but if the western world gangs up on China, there might be a trend to economically disassociate away from China - and the ensuing disruption is what people are worried about. That is a real possibility IMO. >and not as the "US-Chinese experimental virology" hypothesis. Because the US (the country) is not directly responsible for the 'leak' beyond providing some capital - $600,000 is the number I've seen - which is negligible in a biotech organizations' operating budget. We're a small company and we burn through that in under a month. >Who, in particular, should retaliation be pointed at? China? China and the US? The Wuhan lab and their international collaborators? The academic-industrial complex? Well the lab is part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences which is part of the government. So it all depends on where the buck stops in your view.

pasabagi 5y ago

The solution to your confusion is geopolitics. Everybody knows if it was a lab leak, we'll never know, because the CCP would never admit it. What's more, even if it's proven to not be a lab leak, it should still absolutely prompt the reassessment of how we work with infectious diseases. The fact that such a large number of prominent scientists even think it's plausible that a cutting edge virology lab could leak a virus this deadly (and that viruses have leaked before) means this is a sector that direly needs regulation. So the rational conclusion you've drawn is basically valid whether or not there's an investigation. And since there's never going to be any proof either way, the obvious motivation for the way this has been framed and pushed is about geopolitical tensions between China and the US, which have been rising for a long time, even before COVID. I remember listening to a presentation, about a book called (pretentiously) Thucylides Trap'[0] where one particularly deranged woman was advocating for a war against China, the kicker being, she was a US military employee, a strategist, and she said multiple times that this was a normal position in the defense establishment. These morons exist, and they tend to accumulate in foreign policy and defense establishments, and the way they operate is by leaking 'intelligence documents' to the press, who then publish it just like they published the 'leaked intelligence' about Iraq twenty years ago, to awful effect. It's like the human centipede of sourcing, but instead of getting less substantial with each person the material is passed through, it gets more and more believable and concrete as it gets bounced between spooks, hacks, and quacks, even though there are no new facts, and everybody knew the whole idea was a priori irrelevant anyway.

perl4ever 5y ago
>Thucylides Is that your spelling or hers? I think it's Thucydides.
- pasabagi 5y ago
  My spelling (not a classicist, also not great at spelling).

passivate 5y ago

It's a mud fight. Many countries have succeeded in convincing chunks of their population that China should be viewed (and by extension, treated) as an enemy. I too doubt anything major (armed conflict) will happen, but if the western world gangs up on China, there might be a trend to economically disassociate away from China - and the ensuing disruption is what people are worried about. That is a real possibility IMO. >and not as the "US-Chinese experimental virology" hypothesis. Because the US (the country) is not directly responsible for the 'leak' beyond providing some capital - $600,000 is the number I've seen - which is negligible in a biotech organizations' operating budget. We're a small company and we burn through that in under a month. >Who, in particular, should retaliation be pointed at? China? China and the US? The Wuhan lab and their international collaborators? The academic-industrial complex? Well the lab is part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences which is part of the government. So it all depends on where the buck stops in your view.