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> There's your problem. There is no such thing as rational lockdown policy for an airborne virus. OP states that the original lockdowns were reasonable but the

> There's your problem. There is no such thing as rational lockdown policy for an airborne virus. OP states that the original lockdowns were reasonable but then complains about continued lockdowns, and my comment was responding to that sentiment. You're making an entirely different argument -- that lockdowns were always unreasonable. > Pretell: where exactly did lockdowns work? Surely not in East Asia where multiple countries are experiencing exponential growth in covid cases right now due to seasonality. Despite widespread adoption of masking, contact tracing, etc. Certainly not in Sweden, where they never implemented them, yet they continue to have either middling or above average results in terms of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. This is probably one of the least intellectually humble/curious things I've ever seen someone write on hacker news. There's an entire literature base being developed on exactly this question, and the answer is very clearly "it's complicated". For each of your examples I can give a counter-example, and that exchange would be completely specious and unscientific political punditry. This is not a question that can or should be effectively litigated in the comment section of a hacker forum by armchair epidemiologists, at least not without thousands of hours invested. And certainly not helpful if not entered into as an honest search for truth without preconceptions. I don't feed trolls.

chitowneats 5y ago
Unbelievable. Why don't you link some information here for the benefit of other non-trolls? Like I did below with respect to the (lack of) effectiveness of masks? "Troll", "misinformation", etc etc. Folks like you have a zillion ways to dismiss those in the outgroup so that you don't have to be bothered with making a real argument. It's how you were all completely blindsided by the possibility that covid was the result of a lab leak.
- throwawaygh 5y ago
  I don't owe you a conversation. Is there merit in asking which public health interventions -- if any -- are effective responses to an airborne virus? Absolutely. Is it possible that certain policies -- some types of masking, banning outdoor gatherings, etc. -- were ineffective or even harmful? Yes, and someone should investigate those hypotheses. Someone with intellectual humility, the means to gather evidence, and the knowledge and time to properly analyze that evidence. Is this a conversation I'm willing or obligated to have specifically with you? Absolutely not. As for persuading the "persuadable audience" (whose size is probably approximately zero given that we're two nobodies knee-deep in an off-topic thread on an IT forum)? Go back and read your posts. You're doing that part for me.
  - chitowneats 5y ago
    We can agree that those more concerned with tone than with rational public health policy are more likely to agree with you. You've certainly been polite. Fair enough.
    - throwawaygh 5y ago
      It’s not about politeness, and I’m surely not being particularly kind. It’s about exhibiting the intellectual humility and curiosity that convinces a (largely imagined) audience you’re interested in truth and not just grinding some political axe. Have a good day.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - chitowneats 5y ago
        Sure, we're not getting anywhere in this particular discussion. Elsewhere in the thread has been more productive for me. Thanks for your time and your (albeit unsupported) contribution to the collective knowledge of HN.
nate_meurer 5y ago
> This is probably one of the least intellectually humble/curious things I've ever seen someone write on hacker news. Goodness. Unfortunately, you'll be positively devastated to learn that this exact discussion has been ongoing in countless threads here for over a year. > There's an entire literature base being developed on exactly this question, and the answer is very clearly "it's complicated" It's not that complicated. We have enough data at this point to start revealing signals where they exist. So far, there is some evidence that individual behaviors (e.g., masking, physical distancing) can have positive effects. There is also increasingly strong evidence that state-imposed controls (e.g., lockdowns and mask mandates) have not significantly affected the long-term course of the pandemic. > This is not a question that can or should be effectively litigated in the comment section of a hacker forum by armchair epidemiologists, at least not without thousands of hours invested. If your constitution cannot abide listening to people discuss this (or any) topic without first completing your requisite thousands of hours of research, I might gently suggest that HN isn't a safe place for you.
- chitowneats 5y ago
  I marvel at OP's ability to make sweeping claims via a wall of text in an HN comment section, then refuse to respond to criticism. Fascinating.
  - throwawaygh 5y ago
    I bill $850/hr, if you want the conversation that badly ;) otherwise, the audience is approximately zero and you aren’t interested in being convinced, so what would even be the point?
    - chitowneats 5y ago
      Why would I pay you anything? You're still here attempting to defend yourself. Free of charge.
      - nate_meurer 5y ago

chitowneats 5y ago

Unbelievable. Why don't you link some information here for the benefit of other non-trolls? Like I did below with respect to the (lack of) effectiveness of masks? "Troll", "misinformation", etc etc. Folks like you have a zillion ways to dismiss those in the outgroup so that you don't have to be bothered with making a real argument. It's how you were all completely blindsided by the possibility that covid was the result of a lab leak.

throwawaygh 5y ago
I don't owe you a conversation. Is there merit in asking which public health interventions -- if any -- are effective responses to an airborne virus? Absolutely. Is it possible that certain policies -- some types of masking, banning outdoor gatherings, etc. -- were ineffective or even harmful? Yes, and someone should investigate those hypotheses. Someone with intellectual humility, the means to gather evidence, and the knowledge and time to properly analyze that evidence. Is this a conversation I'm willing or obligated to have specifically with you? Absolutely not. As for persuading the "persuadable audience" (whose size is probably approximately zero given that we're two nobodies knee-deep in an off-topic thread on an IT forum)? Go back and read your posts. You're doing that part for me.
- chitowneats 5y ago
  We can agree that those more concerned with tone than with rational public health policy are more likely to agree with you. You've certainly been polite. Fair enough.
  - throwawaygh 5y ago
    It’s not about politeness, and I’m surely not being particularly kind. It’s about exhibiting the intellectual humility and curiosity that convinces a (largely imagined) audience you’re interested in truth and not just grinding some political axe. Have a good day.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - chitowneats 5y ago
      Sure, we're not getting anywhere in this particular discussion. Elsewhere in the thread has been more productive for me. Thanks for your time and your (albeit unsupported) contribution to the collective knowledge of HN.

nate_meurer 5y ago

> This is probably one of the least intellectually humble/curious things I've ever seen someone write on hacker news. Goodness. Unfortunately, you'll be positively devastated to learn that this exact discussion has been ongoing in countless threads here for over a year. > There's an entire literature base being developed on exactly this question, and the answer is very clearly "it's complicated" It's not that complicated. We have enough data at this point to start revealing signals where they exist. So far, there is some evidence that individual behaviors (e.g., masking, physical distancing) can have positive effects. There is also increasingly strong evidence that state-imposed controls (e.g., lockdowns and mask mandates) have not significantly affected the long-term course of the pandemic. > This is not a question that can or should be effectively litigated in the comment section of a hacker forum by armchair epidemiologists, at least not without thousands of hours invested. If your constitution cannot abide listening to people discuss this (or any) topic without first completing your requisite thousands of hours of research, I might gently suggest that HN isn't a safe place for you.

chitowneats 5y ago
I marvel at OP's ability to make sweeping claims via a wall of text in an HN comment section, then refuse to respond to criticism. Fascinating.
- throwawaygh 5y ago
  I bill $850/hr, if you want the conversation that badly ;) otherwise, the audience is approximately zero and you aren’t interested in being convinced, so what would even be the point?
  - chitowneats 5y ago
    Why would I pay you anything? You're still here attempting to defend yourself. Free of charge.
    - nate_meurer 5y ago