10 ms·

It’s not like companies can or will actually hire globally. There are huge timezone, language, cultural, trust, connections, and other barriers.

giantg2 5y ago
And legal barriers around location for data governance too.
- tomatocracy 5y ago
  There are legal barriers around regulated activities and tax problems too, at least in my line of work (particularly tax residency of companies/corporate vehicles). Many of these are temporarily waived by the authorities for the duration of the pandemic but that won't last forever.
fairity 5y ago
The impacts mentioned by OP aren't predicated on companies hiring globally. Simply expanding hiring across the US (or even just your US timezone) will result in a significant drop in salary for your average role. Employers aren't going to drop salaries in the midst of a pandemic, but if remote work persists, salaries will drop substantially. It's simple supply and demand, and I'm sure there's data out there (for existing remote positions) that corroborates this.
dcolkitt 5y ago
Not to mention that the notion that there's a huge global pool of talented devs is largely a myth. It's true that labor is cheaper in India or Russia, but research confirms that the average engineer is far less competent than their American counterparts.[1] Software wages in the US are high, because it's very hard to replicate the quality of an American workforce. By and large global differences in wages reflect global differences in workforce quality. It's not like this is the first time companies have realized that global labor is cheaper. They've been trying to capitalize on cheap engineers in developing countries since the 1980s. It's always the same issue. Lower price on paper, but delivery and quality issues that scale far beyond the up front cost savings. [1]https://www.pnas.org/content/116/14/6732 https://www.pnas.org/content/116/14/6732
- hyperman1 5y ago
  A company outsourced some work to India. They wanted to add a few forms to their application for managing roughly the tuple (name,surname,medicine taken). A few weeks later, the first release came in. It contained everything to manage the tuple (name of medicine taken, surname of medicine taken). I stopped worrying about India about that time. Don't get me wrong, there are smart people in India. But if you're outsourcing for cheaper labor, you're not getting these smart people.
  - rocknor 5y ago
    This generalization that happens every time "outsourcing" and "India" get mentioned in the same thread needs to stop. The culprit here is your employer who is probably hiring graduates in India at 5-10% of SV salaries, while to get competent graduates you need like 20-25%. So you can still outsource for cheap labor, but don't make the mistake of being too cheap.
    - mrkstu 5y ago
      It is still true that the very best of India is suctioned into the United States- though there is definitely some backflow as they gather enough capital to go back and invest in Indian based companies. The gravity of magnitudes better compensation insures that the very best will migrate. FAANG level engineers are completely insulated from overseas competition due to this, but of course the lower echelons will have to worry about this if the current demand spike falls off.
    - zentiggr 5y ago
      Ok, counterpoint again. The support contract for a huge multinational I was a small part of a while back, was bought out by an Indian-based company, who wanted the prestige and new line of business, but bit off WAY more than they could chew, and threw the entire tier 1/2/3 process into near chaos. Had they looked even a little deeper, they might have realized that they had no pratical experience in customer facing sw/hw support, and saved everyone two years of flailing, panic-driven, blame-everyone-you-can-point-a-finger-at, the-technicians-are-wrong-since-our-process-says-otherwise-oh-wait-our-process-is-shit-what-now-MORE-METRICS unbelieveable bullshit. All because somebody in high level management managed to bend somebodys ear, and the parent company got swindled into it. So glad to be gone.
ashtonkem 5y ago
Many of which are completely orthogonal to where the physical office is; if a company hadn’t completely or heavily offshored its workforce for cheaper talent already, it’s not clear why WFH would be the final straw.
thereddaikon 5y ago
Globally may not be a problem but it does make it far easier for hiring managers to reach outside their immediate area and look nationally. That may not change things much in Europe, where distances are short but in the US that's potentially a huge hiring pool. Even if you limit yourself to just your time zone, how many competent developers reside in EST?
auiya 5y ago
There's also sometimes quite egregious tax laws in place for this very reason. Many companies aren't willing to hire overseas as a result.

giantg2 5y ago

And legal barriers around location for data governance too.

tomatocracy 5y ago
There are legal barriers around regulated activities and tax problems too, at least in my line of work (particularly tax residency of companies/corporate vehicles). Many of these are temporarily waived by the authorities for the duration of the pandemic but that won't last forever.

fairity 5y ago

The impacts mentioned by OP aren't predicated on companies hiring globally. Simply expanding hiring across the US (or even just your US timezone) will result in a significant drop in salary for your average role. Employers aren't going to drop salaries in the midst of a pandemic, but if remote work persists, salaries will drop substantially. It's simple supply and demand, and I'm sure there's data out there (for existing remote positions) that corroborates this.

dcolkitt 5y ago

Not to mention that the notion that there's a huge global pool of talented devs is largely a myth. It's true that labor is cheaper in India or Russia, but research confirms that the average engineer is far less competent than their American counterparts.[1] Software wages in the US are high, because it's very hard to replicate the quality of an American workforce. By and large global differences in wages reflect global differences in workforce quality. It's not like this is the first time companies have realized that global labor is cheaper. They've been trying to capitalize on cheap engineers in developing countries since the 1980s. It's always the same issue. Lower price on paper, but delivery and quality issues that scale far beyond the up front cost savings. [1]https://www.pnas.org/content/116/14/6732 https://www.pnas.org/content/116/14/6732

hyperman1 5y ago
A company outsourced some work to India. They wanted to add a few forms to their application for managing roughly the tuple (name,surname,medicine taken). A few weeks later, the first release came in. It contained everything to manage the tuple (name of medicine taken, surname of medicine taken). I stopped worrying about India about that time. Don't get me wrong, there are smart people in India. But if you're outsourcing for cheaper labor, you're not getting these smart people.
- rocknor 5y ago
  This generalization that happens every time "outsourcing" and "India" get mentioned in the same thread needs to stop. The culprit here is your employer who is probably hiring graduates in India at 5-10% of SV salaries, while to get competent graduates you need like 20-25%. So you can still outsource for cheap labor, but don't make the mistake of being too cheap.
  - mrkstu 5y ago
    It is still true that the very best of India is suctioned into the United States- though there is definitely some backflow as they gather enough capital to go back and invest in Indian based companies. The gravity of magnitudes better compensation insures that the very best will migrate. FAANG level engineers are completely insulated from overseas competition due to this, but of course the lower echelons will have to worry about this if the current demand spike falls off.
  - zentiggr 5y ago
    Ok, counterpoint again. The support contract for a huge multinational I was a small part of a while back, was bought out by an Indian-based company, who wanted the prestige and new line of business, but bit off WAY more than they could chew, and threw the entire tier 1/2/3 process into near chaos. Had they looked even a little deeper, they might have realized that they had no pratical experience in customer facing sw/hw support, and saved everyone two years of flailing, panic-driven, blame-everyone-you-can-point-a-finger-at, the-technicians-are-wrong-since-our-process-says-otherwise-oh-wait-our-process-is-shit-what-now-MORE-METRICS unbelieveable bullshit. All because somebody in high level management managed to bend somebodys ear, and the parent company got swindled into it. So glad to be gone.

ashtonkem 5y ago

Many of which are completely orthogonal to where the physical office is; if a company hadn’t completely or heavily offshored its workforce for cheaper talent already, it’s not clear why WFH would be the final straw.

thereddaikon 5y ago

Globally may not be a problem but it does make it far easier for hiring managers to reach outside their immediate area and look nationally. That may not change things much in Europe, where distances are short but in the US that's potentially a huge hiring pool. Even if you limit yourself to just your time zone, how many competent developers reside in EST?

auiya 5y ago

There's also sometimes quite egregious tax laws in place for this very reason. Many companies aren't willing to hire overseas as a result.