I agree completely regarding the social sciences. I think the devil is in the details, though, and to return to the original article, why 1.5 and not some other

I agree completely regarding the social sciences. I think the devil is in the details, though, and to return to the original article, why 1.5 and not some other number? The author provides an answer, but the answer is only partially resolved. I feel like some empirical study is needed, of how deviations from models occur in different fields, in a way that's applicable across fields. Maybe that's the same as the probabilistic analysis being discussed in the article, but what I have in mind is higher-level than what I understood that to be. I'm thinking of some meta-analytic survey across disciplines of what the safety factor would have needed to be to avoid various catastrophes of different sorts, or how much models are off in different areas. Maybe there is a field of study like this?