4 ms·

> I mean, put yourself into the hypothetical supreme naval planner of, say, the US or Japan at the time. Are you really going to gamble your entire nations (or

> I mean, put yourself into the hypothetical supreme naval planner of, say, the US or Japan at the time. Are you really going to gamble your entire nations (or empires, if you will) capability to project force overseas on the notion that air power is the future and battleships are obsolete? Per the fine article, Japan did devote their preparations to air superiority and carried out exactly the attack forewarned by the 1932 war games. So, yes, that seems to have been a good strategy.

jabl 5y ago
They didn't completely rely on that though, as they, for instance, ordered the Yamato class battleships in 1937, at great expense and years after the wargames mentioned. The IJN seems to have been quite obsessed with their Kantai Kessen doctrine, where battleship fleets would slug it out in one decisive battle.
- protomyth 5y ago
  To be fair, some American Admirals believe in battleships fleets slugging it out. I cannot remember which battle, but it was basically caused by an American Admiral moving his BBs for just such a battle.
aphextron 5y ago
> So, yes, that seems to have been a good strategy The point though is that this was a massive gamble on Japan's part in the 1930's. They had no idea if it would actually work.
- mannykannot 5y ago
  One can equally say that those who assumed airplanes did not present an existential threat to battleships were taking a massive gamble - it just did not seem like it to them. On the other hand, it is worth noting that Japan’s early enthusiasm for aircraft carriers was partly driven by the terms of the Washington and London naval treaties, which limited its battleship fleet. As for having evidence that a successful attack on Pearl Harbor could be made, its planners looked at not only the exercises described here, but also the British attack on the Italian fleet in Taranto harbor in 1940.

jabl 5y ago

They didn't completely rely on that though, as they, for instance, ordered the Yamato class battleships in 1937, at great expense and years after the wargames mentioned. The IJN seems to have been quite obsessed with their Kantai Kessen doctrine, where battleship fleets would slug it out in one decisive battle.

protomyth 5y ago
To be fair, some American Admirals believe in battleships fleets slugging it out. I cannot remember which battle, but it was basically caused by an American Admiral moving his BBs for just such a battle.

aphextron 5y ago

> So, yes, that seems to have been a good strategy The point though is that this was a massive gamble on Japan's part in the 1930's. They had no idea if it would actually work.

mannykannot 5y ago
One can equally say that those who assumed airplanes did not present an existential threat to battleships were taking a massive gamble - it just did not seem like it to them. On the other hand, it is worth noting that Japan’s early enthusiasm for aircraft carriers was partly driven by the terms of the Washington and London naval treaties, which limited its battleship fleet. As for having evidence that a successful attack on Pearl Harbor could be made, its planners looked at not only the exercises described here, but also the British attack on the Italian fleet in Taranto harbor in 1940.