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the problem with that report is that I can't find anywhere the exact number, it only states decline by 56.5% without showing any specific numbers. I'm mildly su

the problem with that report is that I can't find anywhere the exact number, it only states decline by 56.5% without showing any specific numbers. I'm mildly suspicious that they originally had a much higher birth rate than Han Chinese since the same policy allowed one kid for Han Chinese allowed two to four kids for minorities

beaunative 5y ago
update, in a related voa newspiece, it reads 'For example, in Hotan prefecture, where the Uyghurs make up about 97% of the population, the birthrate was 8.58 per 1,000 people in 2018. Before 2017, it was more than 20 births per 1,000 people' at the same time the national average was around 11
- chitowneats 5y ago
  That's one specific example, yes. You can find the 36 page report here: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/2021-05/Family%20deplanning%20v2.pdf?IO4rxtbW_Up5C6usSJ4EpMFHm6khL7uF https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/2021-05/Fami... Edit: via this summary from ASPI (in case the AWS link above breaks in the future) https://www.aspi.org.au/report/family-deplanning-birthrates-xinjiang https://www.aspi.org.au/report/family-deplanning-birthrates-...
  - beaunative 5y ago
    Thank you so much. The full report is much more genuine than the abstract from the press. For example, it writes 'in Kashgar prefecture in 2014, the birth-rate soared to nearly 68 children per thousand people' at the same time the national average was around 12, perhaps because people in those regions are allowed more kids and the policy are rarely enforced compare to other region. so if the birth rate in that region simply fall to national average, it will went down 80%. I think it's an perfect example of how numbers lie, but most people don't have any vested interest to find out.
    - chitowneats 5y ago
      I’m glad you had time to digest that report thoroughly in the 11 minutes between my comment and yours. Of course, everyone here should be aware that you are cherry picking. The conclusion of the report is that on average, there was a steep drop in birth rate in minority counties. The report is named: "Family De-planning: The Coercive Campaign to Drive Down Indigenous Birth-rates in Xinjiang". This is not a case of media misrepresentation no matter how badly you want it to be. The conclusion is typically found at the end of a report. Why don’t you go back and try again.
      - beaunative 5y ago
        I don't mind to examine the full dataset if they are available. And the report is kind of only 20ish pages, excluding the references and covers. After rereading as you suggested, it also said 'Urumqi is also a Han-majority city .... In 2018, the city’s birth-rate grew by about 25 percent compared to the pre-2017 baseline, from 8.5 births per thousand people to 12 per thousand.' So at the same time Han in Urumqi were having 8.5 per 1000 birth, Minorities in Kashgar were having 68 per 1000 birthrate. If that's anything, I'd say the CCP is genociding Han Chinese for selectively enforcing the policy. I think the act to list only percentages without listing exact number is dubious, and I am confident the pattern would be similar.
        chitowneats 5y ago
        Now you're comparing apples to oranges, in addition to cherry picking. You're comparing birth rates of a major city full of unmarried Han who have been lured to the area by government incentives and other work arrangements, to a predominantly rural area. Those birth rates will always be divergent; anywhere in China, and most of the rest of the world. The part about Han being purposely incentivized to move to Xinjiang is explained in section 5 of the report. The report does not dispute that Uyghur birth rates were higher relative to Han Chinese in the past. It makes a convincing case that Uyghurs are being targeted now, at the same time birth control policies are being loosened in Han Chinese parts of the country. That policy discrepancy is intentional, and we should expect it to continue unless we speak out against it. Finally, we can agree that the Chinese government is also evil for controlling the births of Han Chinese and ruining life for generations of their own people who had to contend with the CCP's signature and unique natal authoritarianism.
thinktankie 5y ago
Correct [1]. In addition, ASPI is notorious for being sponsored by the US, UK and Australian weapons industry who have a vested interest in drumming up this kind of thing. I would take anything they have to say with a massive grain of salt [2]. [1] https://twitter.com/drStuartGilmour/status/1393834271693963272 https://twitter.com/drStuartGilmour/status/13938342716939632... [2] https://www.aspi.org.au/sponsors https://www.aspi.org.au/sponsors
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- chitowneats 5y ago
  Incorrect [1]. [1] https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1394089300199821313 https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1394089300199821313

beaunative 5y ago

update, in a related voa newspiece, it reads 'For example, in Hotan prefecture, where the Uyghurs make up about 97% of the population, the birthrate was 8.58 per 1,000 people in 2018. Before 2017, it was more than 20 births per 1,000 people' at the same time the national average was around 11

chitowneats 5y ago
That's one specific example, yes. You can find the 36 page report here: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/2021-05/Family%20deplanning%20v2.pdf?IO4rxtbW_Up5C6usSJ4EpMFHm6khL7uF https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/2021-05/Fami... Edit: via this summary from ASPI (in case the AWS link above breaks in the future) https://www.aspi.org.au/report/family-deplanning-birthrates-xinjiang https://www.aspi.org.au/report/family-deplanning-birthrates-...
- beaunative 5y ago
  Thank you so much. The full report is much more genuine than the abstract from the press. For example, it writes 'in Kashgar prefecture in 2014, the birth-rate soared to nearly 68 children per thousand people' at the same time the national average was around 12, perhaps because people in those regions are allowed more kids and the policy are rarely enforced compare to other region. so if the birth rate in that region simply fall to national average, it will went down 80%. I think it's an perfect example of how numbers lie, but most people don't have any vested interest to find out.
  - chitowneats 5y ago
    I’m glad you had time to digest that report thoroughly in the 11 minutes between my comment and yours. Of course, everyone here should be aware that you are cherry picking. The conclusion of the report is that on average, there was a steep drop in birth rate in minority counties. The report is named: "Family De-planning: The Coercive Campaign to Drive Down Indigenous Birth-rates in Xinjiang". This is not a case of media misrepresentation no matter how badly you want it to be. The conclusion is typically found at the end of a report. Why don’t you go back and try again.
    - beaunative 5y ago
      I don't mind to examine the full dataset if they are available. And the report is kind of only 20ish pages, excluding the references and covers. After rereading as you suggested, it also said 'Urumqi is also a Han-majority city .... In 2018, the city’s birth-rate grew by about 25 percent compared to the pre-2017 baseline, from 8.5 births per thousand people to 12 per thousand.' So at the same time Han in Urumqi were having 8.5 per 1000 birth, Minorities in Kashgar were having 68 per 1000 birthrate. If that's anything, I'd say the CCP is genociding Han Chinese for selectively enforcing the policy. I think the act to list only percentages without listing exact number is dubious, and I am confident the pattern would be similar.
      - chitowneats 5y ago
        Now you're comparing apples to oranges, in addition to cherry picking. You're comparing birth rates of a major city full of unmarried Han who have been lured to the area by government incentives and other work arrangements, to a predominantly rural area. Those birth rates will always be divergent; anywhere in China, and most of the rest of the world. The part about Han being purposely incentivized to move to Xinjiang is explained in section 5 of the report. The report does not dispute that Uyghur birth rates were higher relative to Han Chinese in the past. It makes a convincing case that Uyghurs are being targeted now, at the same time birth control policies are being loosened in Han Chinese parts of the country. That policy discrepancy is intentional, and we should expect it to continue unless we speak out against it. Finally, we can agree that the Chinese government is also evil for controlling the births of Han Chinese and ruining life for generations of their own people who had to contend with the CCP's signature and unique natal authoritarianism.

thinktankie 5y ago

Correct [1]. In addition, ASPI is notorious for being sponsored by the US, UK and Australian weapons industry who have a vested interest in drumming up this kind of thing. I would take anything they have to say with a massive grain of salt [2]. [1] https://twitter.com/drStuartGilmour/status/1393834271693963272 https://twitter.com/drStuartGilmour/status/13938342716939632... [2] https://www.aspi.org.au/sponsors https://www.aspi.org.au/sponsors

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
chitowneats 5y ago
Incorrect [1]. [1] https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1394089300199821313 https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1394089300199821313