4 ms·
As each piece of space junk is added, does the probability of getting hit increase linearly? Or is it a curve? I ask because the press uses language like "ticki
by tunesmith 5y ago
As each piece of space junk is added, does the probability of getting hit increase linearly? Or is it a curve? I ask because the press uses language like "ticking time bomb" which implies some sort of curve or vicious cycle or tipping point that will be hit. Is it that the collisions would in turn create more space junk, at a high enough rate that this would cause a true acceleration?
- mcguire 5y agoKessler syndrome is somewhat similar to a nuclear reaction (the math may be similar?): below a critical density, collisions are rare enough that orbital decay means that the chance of the next collision is ~0. Above that critical density, a collision produces multiple pieces of debris which are then involved in further collisions. The chance of a collision goes up exponentially and the only solution is not launching anything until decay has cleared the orbit.