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Do you find no place for ideology? Perestroika and the collapse of Soviet pieties as hypocrisies - these are mere effects of economic exhaustion, and America wi

by w0de0 5y ago

Do you find no place for ideology? Perestroika and the collapse of Soviet pieties as hypocrisies - these are mere effects of economic exhaustion, and America will experience precisely the same? What about the inefficiency of centrally planned economies? Could that be why the Soviets went “broke”? In what way do you predict the United States will go “broke” and what do you imagine of its collapse? A geopolitical collapse? Do you imagine Texas will become Belarus? I believe you analysis is simple to the point of ineffectiveness - with respect.

simonblack 5y ago
Ideology? Nope, I see the problem as financial and economic. You can't embezzle a country of billions (trillions!) and expect that it still has enough money to function properly. A country is really just analogous to a very large Corporation. In what way do you predict the United States will go “broke”? The US is already "broke". It has no chance in Hell of ever repaying its debt. The world has lost its confidence in the US economy. The use of the US Dollar as a Reserve Currency is now down to about half of what it used to be, and declining steadily. Going back to the Cold War 1.0, BOTH the US and the Soviets ran out of money at the end of the 1980s. The US was unfortunate(!) in having the Reserve Currency Credit Card which allowed them to keep spending as though nothing had changed. So now, 30 years later, and 30-odd trillion in debt, the US has no hope at all of recovering - it's just in too deep. The Zimbabwe scenario is close at hand. On the other hand, because the Soviets/Russians didn't have the Reserve Currency Credit Card, they had to to pull in their belts and try to pay off their own massive (but still manageable at that time) debt. That took them about 15 years, but now they are 'back in the black' and now have quite commendable foreign reserves. Their financial prospects are good. Do I imagine that Texas will become Belarus? Good question. It's certainly possible that, as a previously independent Republic, when the SHTF that the Texans will refuse to subsidise the other very destitute states with their oil money, so that they can sort out their own Texas financial problems. I'd guess that maybe it's a 50-50 chance that Texas will 'de-merge' to prevent their going down with the rest of the US.
- w0de0 5y ago
  I'll eat my hat, Simon Black, if "the Zimbabwe scenario occurs" or Texas attempts to secede because we're all desperate for their oil to sell to - well, who? I asked the Texas question because it is a bad question - because a positive answer indicates to me a distorted sense of the composition of American society. America's wealth isn't the dollar's reserve currency status, it isn't its GDP (or conversely the debt-to-GDP measure), it is ~400 million humans and the natural wealth of the richest part of North America, combined with the easy geopolitical security of two vast oceans and two good friends. Our debt is made easier because of the strength of the dollar, just as the British debt was before the Suez crisis. But it is secured by our vast real estate, our technologically sophisticated economy, and, like all national debts, by the easy assumption of future growth in population and economy (this growth being the main reason the national debt is not analogous to household debt).
  - simonblack 5y ago
    Our debt is made easier because of the strength of the dollar, just as the British debt was before the Suez crisis. The Dollar is only strong because there hasn't been an event like Britain's Suez Crisis YET. But the US Dollar is a 'dead man walking' just like the British Pound was a 'dead man walking' before Suez. Both the Pound then and the Dollar now, had and have only 'belief' holding them up. The economic fundamentals behind both of them being horrifically bad. But keep believing what you believe. It won't change the outcome.
    - w0de0 5y ago
      > But keep believing what you believe. It won't change the outcome. I'm happily considering your argument - holding up a "The End is Nigh" sign does not improve it.

by w0de0 5y ago

simonblack 5y ago

Ideology? Nope, I see the problem as financial and economic. You can't embezzle a country of billions (trillions!) and expect that it still has enough money to function properly. A country is really just analogous to a very large Corporation. In what way do you predict the United States will go “broke”? The US is already "broke". It has no chance in Hell of ever repaying its debt. The world has lost its confidence in the US economy. The use of the US Dollar as a Reserve Currency is now down to about half of what it used to be, and declining steadily. Going back to the Cold War 1.0, BOTH the US and the Soviets ran out of money at the end of the 1980s. The US was unfortunate(!) in having the Reserve Currency Credit Card which allowed them to keep spending as though nothing had changed. So now, 30 years later, and 30-odd trillion in debt, the US has no hope at all of recovering - it's just in too deep. The Zimbabwe scenario is close at hand. On the other hand, because the Soviets/Russians didn't have the Reserve Currency Credit Card, they had to to pull in their belts and try to pay off their own massive (but still manageable at that time) debt. That took them about 15 years, but now they are 'back in the black' and now have quite commendable foreign reserves. Their financial prospects are good. Do I imagine that Texas will become Belarus? Good question. It's certainly possible that, as a previously independent Republic, when the SHTF that the Texans will refuse to subsidise the other very destitute states with their oil money, so that they can sort out their own Texas financial problems. I'd guess that maybe it's a 50-50 chance that Texas will 'de-merge' to prevent their going down with the rest of the US.

w0de0 5y ago
I'll eat my hat, Simon Black, if "the Zimbabwe scenario occurs" or Texas attempts to secede because we're all desperate for their oil to sell to - well, who? I asked the Texas question because it is a bad question - because a positive answer indicates to me a distorted sense of the composition of American society. America's wealth isn't the dollar's reserve currency status, it isn't its GDP (or conversely the debt-to-GDP measure), it is ~400 million humans and the natural wealth of the richest part of North America, combined with the easy geopolitical security of two vast oceans and two good friends. Our debt is made easier because of the strength of the dollar, just as the British debt was before the Suez crisis. But it is secured by our vast real estate, our technologically sophisticated economy, and, like all national debts, by the easy assumption of future growth in population and economy (this growth being the main reason the national debt is not analogous to household debt).
- simonblack 5y ago
  Our debt is made easier because of the strength of the dollar, just as the British debt was before the Suez crisis. The Dollar is only strong because there hasn't been an event like Britain's Suez Crisis YET. But the US Dollar is a 'dead man walking' just like the British Pound was a 'dead man walking' before Suez. Both the Pound then and the Dollar now, had and have only 'belief' holding them up. The economic fundamentals behind both of them being horrifically bad. But keep believing what you believe. It won't change the outcome.
  - w0de0 5y ago
    > But keep believing what you believe. It won't change the outcome. I'm happily considering your argument - holding up a "The End is Nigh" sign does not improve it.