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A lot of people are asking why a policy is even still needed - why not go for no limit at all? 1) There is an entire family planning bureaucracy within the CCP
by stanrivers 5y ago
A lot of people are asking why a policy is even still needed - why not go for no limit at all?
1) There is an entire family planning bureaucracy within the CCP setup to manage this; would do you do with all those people if they are not needed anymore?
2) China is more strict on population planning for certain minorities - not officially, but in the background; think Muslims in western China or Tibet or Mongolians, or ethnic Koreans in northeastern China... If you had no population planning for all the Han chinese, you might have a brighter light cast on this small in number but impactful population control actions.
3) Once someone has power, why let go of it? The CCP survives by creating a fairly good life for the majority in China - and it has done that extremely well - in exchange for control. It is easier to go from 3 back to 2, than it is to go from unlimited back to 2, for example.
- chitowneats 5y ago"The ASPI report said birth rates in counties with a 90 percent or greater indigenous population declined by an average of 56.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, far more than other regions in Xinjiang and China during the same period." https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-uses-coercive-policies-xinjiang-drive-down-uyghur-birth-rates-think-tank-2021-05-13 https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-uses-coercive-poli... 56.5% decline in birth rates in one year when the right sample is taken. Beyond shocking. Doing such a thing with your left hand while allowing more births for Han Chinese with your right hand must be seen for what it is: genocide.
- elefanten 5y agoYou’re absolutely right and this comment has no business being grayed.
- mensetmanusman 5y agoUncomfortable truths
- chitowneats 5y agoIndeed, this seems to have touched a nerve. Interesting that no one has tried to refute my point directly. There are others in the thread who seem to be suggesting that because Han Chinese have also been subject to population control measures, that my point is somehow invalid. No one has yet explained why we see such steep birth rate declines, specifically in Uyghur regions, relative to the rest of China, only in the last half decade or so. You know, right around the time they started rounding up millions of people in that same ethnic group and putting them in camps. The Chinese government has many euphemisms and rationalizations for these camps, but they don't dispute their existence. In any case we have satellite imagery. What can one conclude about these coinciding actions by the Chinese state if not genocide? If it's not that, what is it?
- beaunative 5y agothe problem with that report is that I can't find anywhere the exact number, it only states decline by 56.5% without showing any specific numbers. I'm mildly suspicious that they originally had a much higher birth rate than Han Chinese since the same policy allowed one kid for Han Chinese allowed two to four kids for minorities
- beaunative 5y agoupdate, in a related voa newspiece, it reads 'For example, in Hotan prefecture, where the Uyghurs make up about 97% of the population, the birthrate was 8.58 per 1,000 people in 2018. Before 2017, it was more than 20 births per 1,000 people' at the same time the national average was around 11
- chitowneats 5y agoThat's one specific example, yes. You can find the 36 page report here: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/2021-05/Family%20deplanning%20v2.pdf?IO4rxtbW_Up5C6usSJ4EpMFHm6khL7uF https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/2021-05/Fami... Edit: via this summary from ASPI (in case the AWS link above breaks in the future) https://www.aspi.org.au/report/family-deplanning-birthrates-xinjiang https://www.aspi.org.au/report/family-deplanning-birthrates-...
- beaunative 5y agoThank you so much. The full report is much more genuine than the abstract from the press. For example, it writes 'in Kashgar prefecture in 2014, the birth-rate soared to nearly 68 children per thousand people' at the same time the national average was around 12, perhaps because people in those regions are allowed more kids and the policy are rarely enforced compare to other region. so if the birth rate in that region simply fall to national average, it will went down 80%. I think it's an perfect example of how numbers lie, but most people don't have any vested interest to find out.
- chitowneats 5y ago
- chitowneats 5y agoIn case any potential down voters are not educated on the matter, the U.N. convention on genocide specifically prohibits targeting ethnic or religious minorities for forced sterilization/birth control: https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml
- ikerdanzel 5y agoThey already failed at 2 as very few Han Chinese bother to have more than 1 kid. Now they double down to 3. Good luck realizing it is not working and they will have to either go for 19th century expansionist policy, or cloning. There is the force mandate they can try, hard to see people doing it and then sustain to full term and birth with the threat lingering. Chinese are herd mentality sheep. If just a few decide no go than 1, entire billion people will do so. They will have to start executing people for failing to have 3 by 40yrs old, dystopian imagination which I don't see getting implemented in modern times.
- kamfc 5y agoI've always wondered about the timing when population control was first implemented, and their intent. 1. Did population control allow Han Chinese/CCP to maintain their dominance in size over the growing minorities who were largely still living the agrarian lifestyle? 2. Minorities' would have their growth exponentially reduced over a hundred year. 3. And by increasing it now, Han Chinese can now exponentially grow again with momentum over minorities. So in the background, it seems there's more than meet the eye to maintain Han Chinese power over other minorities in the country.Similar to Japanese (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ainu_people https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ainu_people) and other "race"; same strategy and intent, different tactic.
- powerapple 5y agoI believe the decision was made mainly over the concern of food supply. If you haven't already known, 195* many people died from hunger. Minorities have enjoyed more relaxing restrictions and often these policies are not enforced unless they have proper jobs (governments, CCP members and so on, breaking this could mean the end of your career). Many minorities are in small number to begin with, then the large minorities such as Tibetans and Uygurs are in tens of millions anyway. It is very different from Japan or other countries.
- refenestrator 5y agoHistorically, minorities were allowed to have more children than Han Chinese, FYI. Han only reached the same child allowance recently.
- crakenzak 5y agosource?
- chillee 5y agohttps://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/gia/article/what-did-china's-one-child-policy-mean-for-minorities https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/gia/article/what-did-china's-one-c... > When the policy was implemented, 26 [out of 31] Chinese provinces allowed ethnic minorities to have an additional child. There were other exemptions too - for example, rural farmers could often also be exempted, particularly if their first child was a daughter.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- ngcc_hk 5y agoActually rural area as well. Done of my chinese have a brother or sister ... surprise me a lot.
- harringtonjones 5y agoabsolutely. ethnic Korean from north east China here, many of my relatives had 2 children while our Han neighbors only had 1
- 6t6t6t6 5y agoSinophobic propaganda on English speaking Internet has reached an amazing level. It's quite amazing how this can get unchecked so much.
- justicezyx 5y ago> China is more strict on population planning for certain minorities - not officially, but in the background; think Muslims in western China or Tibet or Mongolians, or ethnic Koreans in northeastern China... If you had no population planning for all the Han chinese, you might have a brighter light cast on this small in number but impactful population control actions. LAMO My mother was almost forced to sterilze, which would make me disappear in 1984, she is Han Chinese. That was because local beauracrats' stupid idea of birth planning. Can you stop making CCP looking better by saying it's discrinating against minorities... Edit: I was the 2nd child.
- stanrivers 5y agoVery curious - why was she selected for this?
- mensetmanusman 5y agoIt was a broad policy that affected millions of women.
- stanrivers 5y agoUnderstood - but I think he was saying that before she even had one child, they were trying to force sterilize his mother, who was Han Chinese. That is a new concept to me, unless maybe it was wealth / income / genetic disease related?
- justicezyx 5y agoShe was a poor rural village woman. Of course, forced sterilization is not going to work in the cities. Because people with some form of certain degree of intellect understand the use of contraception and can just forgo their job or certain possession to pay the fine. Forced sterilization was never an explicit policy. Everyone with decent intellect knows that's ridiculous. It was practiced, of course, out of middle and low level bureaucracy's sense of "meeting the goal". Of course CCP has not enough resources to enforce a ridiculous policy anyway.
- dillondoyle 5y agoI wouldn't call at least 1 million uighurs interned and reportedly forcibly sterilized or put on other types of birth control a small number. Though given the huge size of China out of 1.3bb it's a rounding error.
- kleton 5y agoAnchoring. A lot of people would otherwise only have the idea to have two, but you tell them they can only have 3, they might max out their limit.
- powerapple 5y agoMost of Chinese want to have a girl and a boy, some may go on to have another child if they are missing a girl or a boy. I do echo other comments that the limit of 3 is not necessary. I also don't see a declining population as a problem as economists see it. They weren't right to begin with. The main drive for productivity and economy output is going to be technology, not human labors anyway, with unlimited supply of money, you can increase consumption just by printing money. Even better, when you don't need to slave human for taxes, you don't need to increase their consumption anyway.