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What does Putin get out of this? I feel like such a strong show of support for Lukashenko on this issue (above the existing general level of support) probably h

What does Putin get out of this? I feel like such a strong show of support for Lukashenko on this issue (above the existing general level of support) probably has some pretty significant strings attached.

jiofih 5y ago
He gets to force the EU to walk back on the restrictions imposed on Belarus. Russia’s interest is to stop the EU from advancing (in any form) over Eastern Europe.
- jacksonkmarley 5y ago
  Good point about resisting EU control of Eastern Europe, although this doesn't seem like the optimal way to do that. Maybe this is step one, then step two is to cut a deal that imposes some limits on Belarus' actions but puts Russia in the control seat of negotiations etc.
- relativ575 5y ago
  If Russia's goal is to stop Eastern Europe to become unfriendly, then they already fail, since most of countries that Russia themselves consider "unfriendly" are already in that region -- Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, Czech (in addition to the US and UK) https://estonianworld.com/security/russia-puts-estonia-on-the-unfriendly-countries-list/ https://estonianworld.com/security/russia-puts-estonia-on-th...
  - alisonkisk 5y ago
    He wants Easter Europe subservient and afraid, not "friendly".
URSpider94 5y ago
In general, Putin seems to be willing to invest on the side of any strongman, to support their ultimate right to take any action to put down their opposition.
a-nikolaev 5y ago
My guess us that for the Russian citizens, Putin wants to show that: 1) Lukashenko is the good guy fighting terrorists, 2) EU politicians have mistreated Belavia Belarusian airlines, so Russia had to step in and defend their allies, 3) generally trying to show that he is more powerful than EU politicians. In terms of actual long-term goals, I think, he aims to replace Lukashenko with a new pro-Russia president, so he tries to keep Lukashenko happy in the process (also making him more dependent on Russia internationally), and proving that the two countries are still best allies...
- jacksonkmarley 5y ago
  Something I have zero clue about, do everyday Russians see Belarus as an ally and Lukashenko as a good guy?
  - gbuk2013 5y ago
    Yes to the first, no to the second. Lukashenko is generally derided for “sitting on two chairs” playing Europe against Russia (while acknowledging his impressive ability to do so for so many years). He also carried the country through the post-Soviet trouble period much better than most other former republics, for which he gets some respect. Note that he has firmly purged the government of pro-Russian politicians over the years so there are no illusions about his friendship.
    - yurish 5y ago
      Can confirm this.
  - vbezhenar 5y ago
    Russians are different. For many Lukashenko's Belarus was their soviet dream, carefully conserved and preserved. For many Lukashenko is dictator along with Putin. Some Russians don't even understand why Belarus is not in the Russia and will welcome every move to unite those countries. I don't think that there's a singular view to Belarus.
  - 5y ago
pydry 5y ago
This week has been win/win/win for Putin and Lukashenko. The EU cutting ties with Belarus pushes the Belarussian people further into Russia's arms. Lukashenko got to cast terror into the heart of the opposition movement. Russia needs the countries on its European border. It is completely exposed militarily - flat lands leading all the way to its heartland routinely used by invaders. It already has two NATO countries on its border and another country (Ukraine) that has asked to join. The last thing it needs is a wall of NATO countries pressed up against its jugular. Having Belarus on side is critical for them.
- AnimalMuppet 5y ago
  Completely exposed to who? The US? Germany? Lithuania? Who exactly is going to take advantage of this terrain and drive an army into Russia? Nobody, that's who. I'll tell you what Putin's really afraid of. He's afraid of Russians figuring out that the people in the USSR who wound up aligned with the west are better off than the people who are under Putin. He's afraid of that reality creeping too close to his borders. (Now, in fairness, it was absolutely absurd that France would invade Russia... until it happened. But if Putin wants buffers big enough to prevent that from happening, then he's going to need to control both Germany and France. There are no buffers big enough to disarm Russia's fears, unless you give them at least all of Europe. And maybe you'd have to give them the whole planet.)
  - pydry 5y ago
    Uh, NATO. NATO isn't an invading force, of course and is purely a defensive pact which is why they occupied Afghanistan.
    - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      I asked who's going to take advantage (militarily, in context) of this level terrain leading into Russia, and you say "NATO". And then you say that NATO isn't an invading force. So what, exactly, are you saying? Seems like you're back at my answer of "nobody is going to invade".

jiofih 5y ago

He gets to force the EU to walk back on the restrictions imposed on Belarus. Russia’s interest is to stop the EU from advancing (in any form) over Eastern Europe.

jacksonkmarley 5y ago
Good point about resisting EU control of Eastern Europe, although this doesn't seem like the optimal way to do that. Maybe this is step one, then step two is to cut a deal that imposes some limits on Belarus' actions but puts Russia in the control seat of negotiations etc.
relativ575 5y ago
If Russia's goal is to stop Eastern Europe to become unfriendly, then they already fail, since most of countries that Russia themselves consider "unfriendly" are already in that region -- Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, Czech (in addition to the US and UK) https://estonianworld.com/security/russia-puts-estonia-on-the-unfriendly-countries-list/ https://estonianworld.com/security/russia-puts-estonia-on-th...
- alisonkisk 5y ago
  He wants Easter Europe subservient and afraid, not "friendly".

URSpider94 5y ago

In general, Putin seems to be willing to invest on the side of any strongman, to support their ultimate right to take any action to put down their opposition.

a-nikolaev 5y ago

My guess us that for the Russian citizens, Putin wants to show that: 1) Lukashenko is the good guy fighting terrorists, 2) EU politicians have mistreated Belavia Belarusian airlines, so Russia had to step in and defend their allies, 3) generally trying to show that he is more powerful than EU politicians. In terms of actual long-term goals, I think, he aims to replace Lukashenko with a new pro-Russia president, so he tries to keep Lukashenko happy in the process (also making him more dependent on Russia internationally), and proving that the two countries are still best allies...

jacksonkmarley 5y ago
Something I have zero clue about, do everyday Russians see Belarus as an ally and Lukashenko as a good guy?
- gbuk2013 5y ago
  Yes to the first, no to the second. Lukashenko is generally derided for “sitting on two chairs” playing Europe against Russia (while acknowledging his impressive ability to do so for so many years). He also carried the country through the post-Soviet trouble period much better than most other former republics, for which he gets some respect. Note that he has firmly purged the government of pro-Russian politicians over the years so there are no illusions about his friendship.
  - yurish 5y ago
    Can confirm this.
- vbezhenar 5y ago
  Russians are different. For many Lukashenko's Belarus was their soviet dream, carefully conserved and preserved. For many Lukashenko is dictator along with Putin. Some Russians don't even understand why Belarus is not in the Russia and will welcome every move to unite those countries. I don't think that there's a singular view to Belarus.
- 5y ago

pydry 5y ago

This week has been win/win/win for Putin and Lukashenko. The EU cutting ties with Belarus pushes the Belarussian people further into Russia's arms. Lukashenko got to cast terror into the heart of the opposition movement. Russia needs the countries on its European border. It is completely exposed militarily - flat lands leading all the way to its heartland routinely used by invaders. It already has two NATO countries on its border and another country (Ukraine) that has asked to join. The last thing it needs is a wall of NATO countries pressed up against its jugular. Having Belarus on side is critical for them.

AnimalMuppet 5y ago
Completely exposed to who? The US? Germany? Lithuania? Who exactly is going to take advantage of this terrain and drive an army into Russia? Nobody, that's who. I'll tell you what Putin's really afraid of. He's afraid of Russians figuring out that the people in the USSR who wound up aligned with the west are better off than the people who are under Putin. He's afraid of that reality creeping too close to his borders. (Now, in fairness, it was absolutely absurd that France would invade Russia... until it happened. But if Putin wants buffers big enough to prevent that from happening, then he's going to need to control both Germany and France. There are no buffers big enough to disarm Russia's fears, unless you give them at least all of Europe. And maybe you'd have to give them the whole planet.)
- pydry 5y ago
  Uh, NATO. NATO isn't an invading force, of course and is purely a defensive pact which is why they occupied Afghanistan.
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    I asked who's going to take advantage (militarily, in context) of this level terrain leading into Russia, and you say "NATO". And then you say that NATO isn't an invading force. So what, exactly, are you saying? Seems like you're back at my answer of "nobody is going to invade".