One of the most common things I see these demographic analysis miss is the changing average age of mothers: as they focus on careers, they might postpone giving

One of the most common things I see these demographic analysis miss is the changing average age of mothers: as they focus on careers, they might postpone giving birth to later in life (30-40yo), compared to the traditional (20-30yo). With this move happening over a couple of decades, it is only natural to have a diminished birth rate as motherhood catches up with the 10 year shift (since it's a cultural thing, it would be happening over a time span of, say, 20 years). I don't know if it's true in China, but if looked at carefully, it might not be the time to sound the alarms. The same happened in the West, just by 20-50 years prior.