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WHO was not pressured into saying not to ban flights from China. The International Health Regulations (2005),[1] which govern the WHO, and which the US played a

WHO was not pressured into saying not to ban flights from China. The International Health Regulations (2005),[1] which govern the WHO, and which the US played a key role in drafting, strongly discourage travel restrictions. The WHO is supposed to urge member countries to keep their borders open as much as possible, and to only institute travel restrictions if there is clear scientific evidence that they will help. Prior to this pandemic, I think the general view among epidemiologists was that for a highly infectious respiratory disease, all but the strictest possible travel restrictions would be ineffective.[2] This is the reason why the US government's own pandemic influenza response plan downplays travel restrictions - they were only considered a short-term delaying tactic.[3] If you look at how SARS-CoV-2 initially spread in the US, the WHO was not wrong. The US banned travel from China, but continued to allow travel from Europe. The first major outbreak in the US, in NY, was brought in from Europe. Because the US had almost no testing at that time, the outbreak in NY spread undetected for weeks. The actual travel restrictions the US implemented were largely useless. The only travel restrictions that would have helped would have been a complete ban on all international arrivals, coupled with extensive testing to find cases that were already present in the US. If you look at the actual advice that the WHO was giving in late January / early February 2020,[4] it was probably a much better strategy than what the US ended up doing. The WHO stressed the need for testing, in order to both detect and curb the spread of the virus, under the assumption that whatever travel restrictions that countries would implement would be ineffective. What was the US' biggest problem early on in the pandemic? A lack of testing, leaving the country blind to the huge outbreak that was developing. The US could have taken a much more extreme approach, banning all travel, but absent mass testing, that in itself would not have prevented the cases that were already in the US from spiraling into a major outbreak. And I simply do not believe that the US would have taken such a drastic move in response to such an uncertain situation. 1. International Health Regulations (2005): https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241580496 https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241580496 2. Effectiveness of travel restrictions in the rapid containment of human influenza: a systematic review: https://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.14.135590 https://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.14.135590 3. National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza (PDF): https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pandemic-infl... 4. Preparing for Cases of COVID-19: https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/PIC_Preparing%20for%20cases%20of%202019-nCoV_v.2.0_14Feb2020.pdf https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/PI...

orls 5y ago
> If you look at how SARS-CoV-2 initially spread in the US, the WHO was not wrong. The US banned travel from China, but continued to allow travel from Europe. The first major outbreak in the US, in NY, was brought in from Europe. It’s worth noting that there’s evidence it was already spreading in Seattle in Jan/Feb, following a Chinese import, before the late Feb/March outbreak in New York (which, yes, appears to have begun with European imports). https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6922e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6922e1.htm
- heisenbit 5y ago
  Yes, but at that time this was not actionable anecdotal evidence as the CDC insisted to reinvent their own flavor of PCR tests, failed and did not mitigate properly by e.g. asking for help. It allowed everyone to close eyes and hope for the best for some crucial months.
- DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
  And in California. One patient died of CoVID-19 in California as early as 6 February 2020, though that only came to light months later. The patient had no recent travel history, so there was community spread in California in January 2020, at the latest. I referred to the NY outbreak as the first "major outbreak" in the US, because it was much larger than the outbreaks in Seattle and California. However, the fact that there were these early cases in the US just underscores how ineffective a policy of closing borders and then failing to test is (or worse yet, only banning travel from some countries and then failing to test). Even China, which has extremely strict travel restrictions (it takes multiple rounds of PCR testing and two weeks of quarantine to get into the country), has occasional imported cases. Without constant surveillance, those few cases would quickly develop into a full-blown outbreak.
deugo 5y ago
The WHO was pressured into saying not to ban flights from China. Made worse by the fact that China itself was nailing domestic flight from Wuhan to the pillars of shame for eternity. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how-china-locked-down-internally-for-covid-19-but-pushed-foreign-travel/ https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how... > The WHO is supposed to urge member countries to keep their borders open as much as possible The WHO is supposed to care about health, not be the World Trade Organization. This had nothing to do with science. Saying: Ah, yes, banning flights will have little effect, because there are already Chinese tourists there, is defeatist, not effective pandemic control. > The US banned travel from China, but continued to allow travel from Europe. So you are effectively saying the US did not ban travel hard enough for it to be effective? Or that Italy should have also banned Chinese tourists, for the US ban to be effective? > The first major outbreak in the US, in NY, was brought in from Europe. Because the US had almost no testing at that time, the outbreak in NY spread undetected for weeks. From my information, it was spreading around the world in December of 2019. Expats in Wuhan who got hospitalized in November 2019 were told in December that they had contracted viral pneumonia SARS. From CDC leaks, it appears to have been spreading with local community spread, and their warnings to prepare were either blocked by Trump, or were not send to avoid panic (of course it will start in New York and LA, so wait until it spreads everywhere, so people don't start to flee like headless chickens) > If you look at the actual advice that the WHO was giving in late January / early February 2020,[4] it was probably a much better strategy than what the US ended up doing. Do not ban flights from China! Or if you do, ban all flights from everywhere! But that won't be effective anyway! What is effective is testing! China shows us the way how to contain this. They are the role model of virus control. The advice from the WHO was an absolute joke. Listening to it in the early stages of the pandemic would make you a poor master of the house, unprepared to deal with a family during a pandemic. > What was the US' biggest problem early on in the pandemic? Not a lack of testing. Testing only makes the problem formally worse. The real problem was a lack of information coming from WHO, as they were the mouthpiece of China, and China was hush about the real origins, the real CFR, the real R+, the real human-to-human transmission. China had the guts to pressure the WHO into saying that packages from China were 100% safe, corona would never survive the trip. And now they push it as disinformation as the origin: it was imported into China or Wuhan from a package or frozen meat. If you want to say travel restrictions are not effective against containment of a H2H virus, be my guest. The situation we knew we were dealing with from SARS-1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_China_Flight_112 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_China_Flight_112

orls 5y ago

> If you look at how SARS-CoV-2 initially spread in the US, the WHO was not wrong. The US banned travel from China, but continued to allow travel from Europe. The first major outbreak in the US, in NY, was brought in from Europe. It’s worth noting that there’s evidence it was already spreading in Seattle in Jan/Feb, following a Chinese import, before the late Feb/March outbreak in New York (which, yes, appears to have begun with European imports). https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6922e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6922e1.htm

heisenbit 5y ago
Yes, but at that time this was not actionable anecdotal evidence as the CDC insisted to reinvent their own flavor of PCR tests, failed and did not mitigate properly by e.g. asking for help. It allowed everyone to close eyes and hope for the best for some crucial months.
DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
And in California. One patient died of CoVID-19 in California as early as 6 February 2020, though that only came to light months later. The patient had no recent travel history, so there was community spread in California in January 2020, at the latest. I referred to the NY outbreak as the first "major outbreak" in the US, because it was much larger than the outbreaks in Seattle and California. However, the fact that there were these early cases in the US just underscores how ineffective a policy of closing borders and then failing to test is (or worse yet, only banning travel from some countries and then failing to test). Even China, which has extremely strict travel restrictions (it takes multiple rounds of PCR testing and two weeks of quarantine to get into the country), has occasional imported cases. Without constant surveillance, those few cases would quickly develop into a full-blown outbreak.

deugo 5y ago

The WHO was pressured into saying not to ban flights from China. Made worse by the fact that China itself was nailing domestic flight from Wuhan to the pillars of shame for eternity. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how-china-locked-down-internally-for-covid-19-but-pushed-foreign-travel/ https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how... > The WHO is supposed to urge member countries to keep their borders open as much as possible The WHO is supposed to care about health, not be the World Trade Organization. This had nothing to do with science. Saying: Ah, yes, banning flights will have little effect, because there are already Chinese tourists there, is defeatist, not effective pandemic control. > The US banned travel from China, but continued to allow travel from Europe. So you are effectively saying the US did not ban travel hard enough for it to be effective? Or that Italy should have also banned Chinese tourists, for the US ban to be effective? > The first major outbreak in the US, in NY, was brought in from Europe. Because the US had almost no testing at that time, the outbreak in NY spread undetected for weeks. From my information, it was spreading around the world in December of 2019. Expats in Wuhan who got hospitalized in November 2019 were told in December that they had contracted viral pneumonia SARS. From CDC leaks, it appears to have been spreading with local community spread, and their warnings to prepare were either blocked by Trump, or were not send to avoid panic (of course it will start in New York and LA, so wait until it spreads everywhere, so people don't start to flee like headless chickens) > If you look at the actual advice that the WHO was giving in late January / early February 2020,[4] it was probably a much better strategy than what the US ended up doing. Do not ban flights from China! Or if you do, ban all flights from everywhere! But that won't be effective anyway! What is effective is testing! China shows us the way how to contain this. They are the role model of virus control. The advice from the WHO was an absolute joke. Listening to it in the early stages of the pandemic would make you a poor master of the house, unprepared to deal with a family during a pandemic. > What was the US' biggest problem early on in the pandemic? Not a lack of testing. Testing only makes the problem formally worse. The real problem was a lack of information coming from WHO, as they were the mouthpiece of China, and China was hush about the real origins, the real CFR, the real R+, the real human-to-human transmission. China had the guts to pressure the WHO into saying that packages from China were 100% safe, corona would never survive the trip. And now they push it as disinformation as the origin: it was imported into China or Wuhan from a package or frozen meat. If you want to say travel restrictions are not effective against containment of a H2H virus, be my guest. The situation we knew we were dealing with from SARS-1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_China_Flight_112 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_China_Flight_112