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Yes but we don’t know. Saudi Arabia could be a secular dictatorship/kingdom similar to Turkey or Syria by then. Iraq might be much more inclusive by then. The

by ixacto 5y ago

Yes but we don’t know. Saudi Arabia could be a secular dictatorship/kingdom similar to Turkey or Syria by then. Iraq might be much more inclusive by then. Then again Turkey could go full Islamist crazy and be more Saudi Arabia and Erdoğan could declare himself president for life. But I think globalization will somewhat liberalize all of the above in the coming years, and the desire to fit in and do business globally will push for liberalization.

belatw 5y ago
> Then again Turkey could go full Islamist crazy and be more Saudi Arabia and Erdoğan could declare himself president for life. It would never happen. Turks are Turks first and Muslim second. Erdogan is a neo-ottomanist, not a salafist. He’s as much of a Muslim as Trump is a Christian. Now I do see him trying to sell more of the nation to Saudis and Emirates while also forcing enough pro-sunni legislation down our throats to keep the Conservative / Nationalists happy and ensure that Saudi / Qatari investment coming and to ensure he can profit like a bandit off of his pre-doomed “Islamic Finance” initiatives. However, Turks are fairly centrist by American standards. They drink, a lot (alcohol tax revenue is crucial to the government, as well as direct sales as the government still owns some of the Raki and Beer production), smoke weed, party, are getting married and having children later in life, and fewer. I watched the sweaty shirtless guys beating mislead soldiers to death during the failed coup a few years ago. They weren’t shouting allahu akbar while they did it. They waved Ataturk flags and sang the Izmir march.
bloaf 5y ago
Climate change is real, and oil is in decline. These countries will only become harder to live in, and their incomes will only decline. That these countries will modernize and liberalize in the face of these challenges is not at all a foregone conclusion.

by ixacto 5y ago

belatw 5y ago

> Then again Turkey could go full Islamist crazy and be more Saudi Arabia and Erdoğan could declare himself president for life. It would never happen. Turks are Turks first and Muslim second. Erdogan is a neo-ottomanist, not a salafist. He’s as much of a Muslim as Trump is a Christian. Now I do see him trying to sell more of the nation to Saudis and Emirates while also forcing enough pro-sunni legislation down our throats to keep the Conservative / Nationalists happy and ensure that Saudi / Qatari investment coming and to ensure he can profit like a bandit off of his pre-doomed “Islamic Finance” initiatives. However, Turks are fairly centrist by American standards. They drink, a lot (alcohol tax revenue is crucial to the government, as well as direct sales as the government still owns some of the Raki and Beer production), smoke weed, party, are getting married and having children later in life, and fewer. I watched the sweaty shirtless guys beating mislead soldiers to death during the failed coup a few years ago. They weren’t shouting allahu akbar while they did it. They waved Ataturk flags and sang the Izmir march.

bloaf 5y ago

Climate change is real, and oil is in decline. These countries will only become harder to live in, and their incomes will only decline. That these countries will modernize and liberalize in the face of these challenges is not at all a foregone conclusion.