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Of course it doesn't, they just transfer to other illegal activities, see: bootlegging by organized crime during prohibition. The problem the cartels will face

Of course it doesn't, they just transfer to other illegal activities, see: bootlegging by organized crime during prohibition. The problem the cartels will face is that there is no other business that makes as much money, and it would require a retool of the entire organization (or scale up, at a minimum) to get back to even a fraction of their power. Cartels are not some unstoppable juggernaut: they run on capital, same as every other business. No money for bribes & no money for foot soldiers == no more cartel at a recognizable scale.

barbacoa 5y ago
Kidnapping and extortion of wealthy avocado growers is already a lucrative business many cartels have been branching out to.
- blablablerg 5y ago
  And Kidnapping of avocado growers is a billion dollar industry? How many are there to kidnap? That doesn't compare to the income generated by cocaine traffic.
mulander 5y ago
> The problem the cartels will face is that there is no other business that makes as much money This is not true. See this article[1] and HN thread[2]: > “It’s good business,” El Polkas says with a shrug. “It makes a lot of money.” When I ask how gasoline compares to narcotics, in terms of overall revenue to Los Zetas, he rubs his index fingers together. “Fifty-fifty,” he says. “It’s approximately as profitable as drugs.” [1] - https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/drug-war-mexico-gas-oil-cartel-717563/ https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/drug-w... [2] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18101141 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18101141
- 9935c101ab17a66 5y ago
  One anecdote and a thread about semi-fictional action movies about Brazilian Special Police Operators? Not exactly the strongest rebuttal. And a quick search reveals: >he Mexican government said fuel theft — huachicol as it is known in Spanish — decreased from about 60,000 barrels per day in 2018 to about 11,000 a day in 2019, with estimated savings of $6 billion. > According to Pemex, fuel theft averaged about 4,440 barrels per day in 2020. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-some-successes-mexico-still-struggles-with-fuel-theft https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-some-successes-mex... I have no idea how good the source is, but there's just absolutely no way black market fuel sales could ever generate the same amount of revenue. > On 2 July state-owned oil firm Pemex reported a 114 per cent year-on-year increase in illegal tapping during the first four months of 2020, during which authorities recovered 9,291,986 litres of stolen fuel with a commercial value of MXN157m (around US$7m). 10,000,000 only has a commercial value of $7m. Imagine the logistics of scaling that kind of operation.

barbacoa 5y ago

Kidnapping and extortion of wealthy avocado growers is already a lucrative business many cartels have been branching out to.

blablablerg 5y ago
And Kidnapping of avocado growers is a billion dollar industry? How many are there to kidnap? That doesn't compare to the income generated by cocaine traffic.

mulander 5y ago

> The problem the cartels will face is that there is no other business that makes as much money This is not true. See this article[1] and HN thread[2]: > “It’s good business,” El Polkas says with a shrug. “It makes a lot of money.” When I ask how gasoline compares to narcotics, in terms of overall revenue to Los Zetas, he rubs his index fingers together. “Fifty-fifty,” he says. “It’s approximately as profitable as drugs.” [1] - https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/drug-war-mexico-gas-oil-cartel-717563/ https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/drug-w... [2] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18101141 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18101141

9935c101ab17a66 5y ago
One anecdote and a thread about semi-fictional action movies about Brazilian Special Police Operators? Not exactly the strongest rebuttal. And a quick search reveals: >he Mexican government said fuel theft — huachicol as it is known in Spanish — decreased from about 60,000 barrels per day in 2018 to about 11,000 a day in 2019, with estimated savings of $6 billion. > According to Pemex, fuel theft averaged about 4,440 barrels per day in 2020. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-some-successes-mexico-still-struggles-with-fuel-theft https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-some-successes-mex... I have no idea how good the source is, but there's just absolutely no way black market fuel sales could ever generate the same amount of revenue. > On 2 July state-owned oil firm Pemex reported a 114 per cent year-on-year increase in illegal tapping during the first four months of 2020, during which authorities recovered 9,291,986 litres of stolen fuel with a commercial value of MXN157m (around US$7m). 10,000,000 only has a commercial value of $7m. Imagine the logistics of scaling that kind of operation.