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The reason cartels need to murder people at all is because the business is illegal and there is no justice system to mediate disputes. F500 CEOs aren't doing d

The reason cartels need to murder people at all is because the business is illegal and there is no justice system to mediate disputes. F500 CEOs aren't doing drive-bys on each other over patent infringements because they can just sue.

kiba 5y ago
Why would the cartels want to legalize drugs?
- alex_sf 5y ago
  They don't. It would mean no more risk premium and the involvement of people that could do a better job than them, but don't get involved in the trade for obvious reasons.
esyir 5y ago
The big mistake you're making is that legalising it also magically brings all the infrastructure to neuter the cartels.
- alex_sf 5y ago
  Of course it doesn't, they just transfer to other illegal activities, see: bootlegging by organized crime during prohibition. The problem the cartels will face is that there is no other business that makes as much money, and it would require a retool of the entire organization (or scale up, at a minimum) to get back to even a fraction of their power. Cartels are not some unstoppable juggernaut: they run on capital, same as every other business. No money for bribes & no money for foot soldiers == no more cartel at a recognizable scale.
  - barbacoa 5y ago
    Kidnapping and extortion of wealthy avocado growers is already a lucrative business many cartels have been branching out to.
    - blablablerg 5y ago
      And Kidnapping of avocado growers is a billion dollar industry? How many are there to kidnap? That doesn't compare to the income generated by cocaine traffic.
  - mulander 5y ago
    > The problem the cartels will face is that there is no other business that makes as much money This is not true. See this article[1] and HN thread[2]: > “It’s good business,” El Polkas says with a shrug. “It makes a lot of money.” When I ask how gasoline compares to narcotics, in terms of overall revenue to Los Zetas, he rubs his index fingers together. “Fifty-fifty,” he says. “It’s approximately as profitable as drugs.” [1] - https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/drug-war-mexico-gas-oil-cartel-717563/ https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/drug-w... [2] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18101141 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18101141
    - 9935c101ab17a66 5y ago
      One anecdote and a thread about semi-fictional action movies about Brazilian Special Police Operators? Not exactly the strongest rebuttal. And a quick search reveals: >he Mexican government said fuel theft — huachicol as it is known in Spanish — decreased from about 60,000 barrels per day in 2018 to about 11,000 a day in 2019, with estimated savings of $6 billion. > According to Pemex, fuel theft averaged about 4,440 barrels per day in 2020. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-some-successes-mexico-still-struggles-with-fuel-theft https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-some-successes-mex... I have no idea how good the source is, but there's just absolutely no way black market fuel sales could ever generate the same amount of revenue. > On 2 July state-owned oil firm Pemex reported a 114 per cent year-on-year increase in illegal tapping during the first four months of 2020, during which authorities recovered 9,291,986 litres of stolen fuel with a commercial value of MXN157m (around US$7m). 10,000,000 only has a commercial value of $7m. Imagine the logistics of scaling that kind of operation.
philwelch 5y ago
That might have helped if they did it decades ago. At this point, there are plenty of other victimful crimes—human trafficking, protection rackets—to keep the cartels in business.

kiba 5y ago

Why would the cartels want to legalize drugs?

alex_sf 5y ago
They don't. It would mean no more risk premium and the involvement of people that could do a better job than them, but don't get involved in the trade for obvious reasons.

esyir 5y ago

The big mistake you're making is that legalising it also magically brings all the infrastructure to neuter the cartels.

alex_sf 5y ago
Of course it doesn't, they just transfer to other illegal activities, see: bootlegging by organized crime during prohibition. The problem the cartels will face is that there is no other business that makes as much money, and it would require a retool of the entire organization (or scale up, at a minimum) to get back to even a fraction of their power. Cartels are not some unstoppable juggernaut: they run on capital, same as every other business. No money for bribes & no money for foot soldiers == no more cartel at a recognizable scale.
- barbacoa 5y ago
  Kidnapping and extortion of wealthy avocado growers is already a lucrative business many cartels have been branching out to.
  - blablablerg 5y ago
    And Kidnapping of avocado growers is a billion dollar industry? How many are there to kidnap? That doesn't compare to the income generated by cocaine traffic.
- mulander 5y ago
  > The problem the cartels will face is that there is no other business that makes as much money This is not true. See this article[1] and HN thread[2]: > “It’s good business,” El Polkas says with a shrug. “It makes a lot of money.” When I ask how gasoline compares to narcotics, in terms of overall revenue to Los Zetas, he rubs his index fingers together. “Fifty-fifty,” he says. “It’s approximately as profitable as drugs.” [1] - https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/drug-war-mexico-gas-oil-cartel-717563/ https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/drug-w... [2] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18101141 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18101141
  - 9935c101ab17a66 5y ago
    One anecdote and a thread about semi-fictional action movies about Brazilian Special Police Operators? Not exactly the strongest rebuttal. And a quick search reveals: >he Mexican government said fuel theft — huachicol as it is known in Spanish — decreased from about 60,000 barrels per day in 2018 to about 11,000 a day in 2019, with estimated savings of $6 billion. > According to Pemex, fuel theft averaged about 4,440 barrels per day in 2020. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-some-successes-mexico-still-struggles-with-fuel-theft https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-some-successes-mex... I have no idea how good the source is, but there's just absolutely no way black market fuel sales could ever generate the same amount of revenue. > On 2 July state-owned oil firm Pemex reported a 114 per cent year-on-year increase in illegal tapping during the first four months of 2020, during which authorities recovered 9,291,986 litres of stolen fuel with a commercial value of MXN157m (around US$7m). 10,000,000 only has a commercial value of $7m. Imagine the logistics of scaling that kind of operation.

philwelch 5y ago

That might have helped if they did it decades ago. At this point, there are plenty of other victimful crimes—human trafficking, protection rackets—to keep the cartels in business.