4 ms·

I think my two tests are still valid on the claim: 1. is the length of the period of those people from getting infected to death relatively short? 2. are ther

I think my two tests are still valid on the claim: 1. is the length of the period of those people from getting infected to death relatively short? 2. are there any other significant factors contribute to those people's death in that period? Even if deaths were patients older than the median life expectancy with significant existing health problems prior to the infection, they can still pass those two tests, so most of them were still killed by the virus.

trompetenaccoun 5y ago
Just to be clear my question was rhetorical. You have to do an autopsy to have a reasonable guess about the cause. A 90 year old has a 13% chance of dying for any reason within a year (in the US, see here: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html). If it's not the virus it may be their liver, or their heart, or, and this is interesting now, chronic respiratory diseases. This has been a leading cause of death for a long time (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm). >are there any other significant factors contribute to those people's death in that period? Multiple things can contribute. Our body is an extremely complex organism. Putting a death down to 100% this or that when in reality it's a lot more complicated isn't just imprecise, it's often flat out wrong. And just because events coincide doesn't mean there's causality. If 1000 people died on a day with severe thunderstorms around the country that doesn't mean the thunderstorms killed them all. When old people with a virus infection die it's reasonable to assume there could be a connection, but you can't just say everyone who tested positive in a given time died of the virus.
- temp8964 5y ago
  For 90 year olds, the COVID caused death probably happens in a few weeks, instead of within a year, right? I agree "events coincide doesn't mean there's causality", but I think the causation here is still pretty strong, even for 90 year olds.
smnrchrds 5y ago
> 1. is the length of the period of those people from getting infected to death relatively short? What about HIV/AIDS? Does it kill anyone?

trompetenaccoun 5y ago

Just to be clear my question was rhetorical. You have to do an autopsy to have a reasonable guess about the cause. A 90 year old has a 13% chance of dying for any reason within a year (in the US, see here: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html). If it's not the virus it may be their liver, or their heart, or, and this is interesting now, chronic respiratory diseases. This has been a leading cause of death for a long time (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm). >are there any other significant factors contribute to those people's death in that period? Multiple things can contribute. Our body is an extremely complex organism. Putting a death down to 100% this or that when in reality it's a lot more complicated isn't just imprecise, it's often flat out wrong. And just because events coincide doesn't mean there's causality. If 1000 people died on a day with severe thunderstorms around the country that doesn't mean the thunderstorms killed them all. When old people with a virus infection die it's reasonable to assume there could be a connection, but you can't just say everyone who tested positive in a given time died of the virus.

temp8964 5y ago
For 90 year olds, the COVID caused death probably happens in a few weeks, instead of within a year, right? I agree "events coincide doesn't mean there's causality", but I think the causation here is still pretty strong, even for 90 year olds.

smnrchrds 5y ago

> 1. is the length of the period of those people from getting infected to death relatively short? What about HIV/AIDS? Does it kill anyone?