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The accuracy of these predictions is remarkable, from the anticipation of shifts in social interaction to the fragmentation of the two party system. On this la

by px 15y ago

The accuracy of these predictions is remarkable, from the anticipation of shifts in social interaction to the fragmentation of the two party system. On this last point, is there any documentation of the role of the Internet in the development of the tea party movement?

TomOfTTB 15y ago
It's funny, I had just the opposite reaction. To my eyes it seems like we have technology that far exceeds what they envisioned but we haven't managed to be anywhere near as effective at the predicted at using it. To run down the list... "The home will double as a place of employment" - We easily have the technology to do this and I'd guess 80% or more of jobs could be done from home yet the established pre-information technology culture keeps us driving into the office every day. "Home-based shopping will permit consumers to control manufacturing directly" - Services like Amazon have made a lot more available but the products are largely the same. The technology exists for far greater customization but the profit margin would be lower so no one has done it. "A new profession of information ''brokers'' and ''managers'' will emerge" - This has happened but rather than "monitor" politicians and corporations these brokers tend to work for them more often than not. "The ''extended family'' might be recreated if the elderly can support themselves through electronic homework" - I'd concede e-mail has made it easier to keep in touch with my grandparents but beyond that technology hasn't done that much for me. Heck, one of my grandparents has an iPhone now and we don't even do the weepy video chats like you see in the Apple commercials. I guess you could say it has created some diversity in politics by giving voice to the minority but the two biggest Political Internet phenomenons of the last decade (Howard Dean and Ron Paul) didn't get anywhere near being in actual power.
- bmelton 15y ago
  "The technology exists for far greater customization but the profit margin would be lower so no one has done it." CafePress, Zazzle, Shapeways, etc. I'll agree that it isn't as wide-spread as you might have expected from the prediction, but per-order production does exist. Also, Howard Dean and Ron Paul HAVE actual power. Sure, they aren't the president, but to imply that governors, senators and congresspersons don't have any "REAL" power undersells both the positions and the work involved.
  - Vivtek 15y ago
    Yeah, and CafePress has been around a while, too.
- whatusername 15y ago
  "I'd guess 80% or more of jobs could be done from home" You missed the words "White-Collar" in there. Or perhaps you added an extra 0 by mistake.
- extension 15y ago
  "Home-based shopping will permit consumers to control manufacturing directly" - Services like Amazon have made a lot more available but the products are largely the same. The technology exists for far greater customization but the profit margin would be lower so no one has done it. The technology to do that is 3D printing, but it's at a very early stage right now. I think they got this right in 1982 but underestimated how long it would take -- maybe because they didn't understand how much competitive manufacturing depends on scale and offshoring.
- a3camero 15y ago
  What's also interesting is that almost any other predictions they could have made would have become partially true. There's virtually every service and idea imaginable online now to at least some degree. I'd be shocked if most of the prediction didn't become at least a bit true since they're extrapolated from the non-internet world.
guelo 15y ago
I think the tea party has been driven mostly by traditional media, namely talk radio and cable news (Rick Santelli's original rant was broadcast on CNBC). Of course there has been a lot of online organization but I think the main promotion occurred over traditional channels.
- OstiaAntica 15y ago
  Santelli's rant occurred on CNBC, but it was watched and shared on YouTube. Mainstream media totally missed the Tea Party movement, which got rolling during the bailouts in late 2008 but wasn't really covered until after Scott Brown's surprise election win in the winter of 2010.
  - philwelch 15y ago
    The movement was coopted and changed by Fox News and Sarah Palin, two very pre-Internet forces.

by px 15y ago

TomOfTTB 15y ago

It's funny, I had just the opposite reaction. To my eyes it seems like we have technology that far exceeds what they envisioned but we haven't managed to be anywhere near as effective at the predicted at using it. To run down the list... "The home will double as a place of employment" - We easily have the technology to do this and I'd guess 80% or more of jobs could be done from home yet the established pre-information technology culture keeps us driving into the office every day. "Home-based shopping will permit consumers to control manufacturing directly" - Services like Amazon have made a lot more available but the products are largely the same. The technology exists for far greater customization but the profit margin would be lower so no one has done it. "A new profession of information ''brokers'' and ''managers'' will emerge" - This has happened but rather than "monitor" politicians and corporations these brokers tend to work for them more often than not. "The ''extended family'' might be recreated if the elderly can support themselves through electronic homework" - I'd concede e-mail has made it easier to keep in touch with my grandparents but beyond that technology hasn't done that much for me. Heck, one of my grandparents has an iPhone now and we don't even do the weepy video chats like you see in the Apple commercials. I guess you could say it has created some diversity in politics by giving voice to the minority but the two biggest Political Internet phenomenons of the last decade (Howard Dean and Ron Paul) didn't get anywhere near being in actual power.

bmelton 15y ago
"The technology exists for far greater customization but the profit margin would be lower so no one has done it." CafePress, Zazzle, Shapeways, etc. I'll agree that it isn't as wide-spread as you might have expected from the prediction, but per-order production does exist. Also, Howard Dean and Ron Paul HAVE actual power. Sure, they aren't the president, but to imply that governors, senators and congresspersons don't have any "REAL" power undersells both the positions and the work involved.
- Vivtek 15y ago
  Yeah, and CafePress has been around a while, too.
whatusername 15y ago
"I'd guess 80% or more of jobs could be done from home" You missed the words "White-Collar" in there. Or perhaps you added an extra 0 by mistake.
extension 15y ago
"Home-based shopping will permit consumers to control manufacturing directly" - Services like Amazon have made a lot more available but the products are largely the same. The technology exists for far greater customization but the profit margin would be lower so no one has done it. The technology to do that is 3D printing, but it's at a very early stage right now. I think they got this right in 1982 but underestimated how long it would take -- maybe because they didn't understand how much competitive manufacturing depends on scale and offshoring.
a3camero 15y ago
What's also interesting is that almost any other predictions they could have made would have become partially true. There's virtually every service and idea imaginable online now to at least some degree. I'd be shocked if most of the prediction didn't become at least a bit true since they're extrapolated from the non-internet world.

guelo 15y ago

I think the tea party has been driven mostly by traditional media, namely talk radio and cable news (Rick Santelli's original rant was broadcast on CNBC). Of course there has been a lot of online organization but I think the main promotion occurred over traditional channels.

OstiaAntica 15y ago
Santelli's rant occurred on CNBC, but it was watched and shared on YouTube. Mainstream media totally missed the Tea Party movement, which got rolling during the bailouts in late 2008 but wasn't really covered until after Scott Brown's surprise election win in the winter of 2010.
- philwelch 15y ago
  The movement was coopted and changed by Fox News and Sarah Palin, two very pre-Internet forces.