4 ms·

What about people who live in freezing climates, like Sweden or Alaska? Aren't we reducing harm to those people?

zardo 5y ago
Turning the permafrost to mud is definitely not helpful.
actually_a_dog 5y ago
Take a look at the map in this article: https://nerdist.com/article/global-warming-video-earth-4-degrees/ https://nerdist.com/article/global-warming-video-earth-4-deg... Everywhere that isn't green will be uninhabitable under a worst case 4C warming scenario. How do you think that balances out? For the sake of accuracy, I should note that the map leaves off Antarctica, a substantial portion of which will become habitable under this scenario.
- jayspell 5y ago
  So that article admits right at the outset that it is extremely speculative. You could just as easily post an extremely speculative article that shows the entire world will be jungle with the rise in temperatures.
  - actually_a_dog 5y ago
    The only speculation is whether or not the 4C scenario is the one we're in. The map itself is derived from climate models, which have been shown to be accurate in reproducing current conditions, when fed correct levels of atmospheric greenhouse gasses. I can dig up the paper that says this if anyone would care to read it.
    - ghostwriter 5y ago
      > The map itself is derived from climate models, which have been shown to be accurate in reproducing current conditions how do you know that the models show accurate results that match and predict real measurements? Where is the code to verify that there's no post-factum editing and fitting the results into the desired interpretations? Who is performing verification? Is it made open-source for independent reviews?
      - actually_a_dog 5y ago
        Would you like to read the paper? If you say you will actually read it, I will find the reference. The answers to your questions are mostly there. For the ones that are not, I'm sure you can contact the researchers, ask them, and report back.
        ghostwriter 5y ago
        I would like to see sources of the models first, similarly to how implementations of RSA could be found on Github prior finding papers describing principles of RSA and verified by everyone interested in the topic of cryptography. If there's a paper claiming that the models consistently predict observable climate numbers in the future, the models have to be published openly in full, as it would be a pre-requisite for verifying reproducibility of the results.
        actually_a_dog 5y ago
        Alright, well, I guess you don't want what I have to offer, so, have fun on your own.
        ghostwriter 5y ago
        I doubt you had anything to offer in the first place. If you had it, you would have shared a link, as I can do for cryptography projects with strong claims.
        actually_a_dog 5y ago
        You're free to be wrong. I'm simply not willing to spend effort digging up a reference for someone who won't read it. Literally all you had to say was "I'd like the reference please, so I can read it," but you did not. So, it seems I was right. Given your attitude, I don't even believe you intended to do what you said you were going to do in good faith. Have a nice day.
datameta 5y ago
If you truly want to look at it that way then it has to be a utilitarian net harm calculation.
Y-bar 5y ago
I live in one of those areas and climate change is _harming_ us today, here a couple of examples: - Milder winters mean more ticks and pests survive to eat lumber and spread disease, causing personal harm as well as economic. - Warmer and drier summers decrease agricultural output - A grater variety of rainfall cause mudslides and property damage increases - Snakes can survive further north, to the mountains eating birds eggs which have never needed to understand the danger of them - Boars survive winters better, causing destructions to agriculture. - Higher frequently of forest fires. - Algae at the coast bloom more intensely, preventing tourism and suffocates other species.
- swader999 5y ago
  The only thing proven is slightly milder winters. Agriculture output has done nothing but increase every year. Forest fires on the decline. We've been getting warmer since the last ice age for sure, more so the last forty years but not at a dire rate. Sea level rise has varied between 1.5 and 3mm per year since useful records started, again, that rate of change is easy to handle. Humans have and will adapt with very little hardship. The panicked masses fed by headline grabbing media and climate 'modeling' that fails basic back testing are just as bad as the outright deniers.

Turning the permafrost to mud is definitely not helpful.

Take a look at the map in this article: https://nerdist.com/article/global-warming-video-earth-4-degrees/ https://nerdist.com/article/global-warming-video-earth-4-deg... Everywhere that isn't green will be uninhabitable under a worst case 4C warming scenario. How do you think that balances out? For the sake of accuracy, I should note that the map leaves off Antarctica, a substantial portion of which will become habitable under this scenario.

jayspell 5y ago
So that article admits right at the outset that it is extremely speculative. You could just as easily post an extremely speculative article that shows the entire world will be jungle with the rise in temperatures.
- actually_a_dog 5y ago
  The only speculation is whether or not the 4C scenario is the one we're in. The map itself is derived from climate models, which have been shown to be accurate in reproducing current conditions, when fed correct levels of atmospheric greenhouse gasses. I can dig up the paper that says this if anyone would care to read it.
  - ghostwriter 5y ago
    > The map itself is derived from climate models, which have been shown to be accurate in reproducing current conditions how do you know that the models show accurate results that match and predict real measurements? Where is the code to verify that there's no post-factum editing and fitting the results into the desired interpretations? Who is performing verification? Is it made open-source for independent reviews?
    - actually_a_dog 5y ago
      Would you like to read the paper? If you say you will actually read it, I will find the reference. The answers to your questions are mostly there. For the ones that are not, I'm sure you can contact the researchers, ask them, and report back.
      - ghostwriter 5y ago
        I would like to see sources of the models first, similarly to how implementations of RSA could be found on Github prior finding papers describing principles of RSA and verified by everyone interested in the topic of cryptography. If there's a paper claiming that the models consistently predict observable climate numbers in the future, the models have to be published openly in full, as it would be a pre-requisite for verifying reproducibility of the results.
        actually_a_dog 5y ago
        Alright, well, I guess you don't want what I have to offer, so, have fun on your own.
        ghostwriter 5y ago
        I doubt you had anything to offer in the first place. If you had it, you would have shared a link, as I can do for cryptography projects with strong claims.
        actually_a_dog 5y ago
        You're free to be wrong. I'm simply not willing to spend effort digging up a reference for someone who won't read it. Literally all you had to say was "I'd like the reference please, so I can read it," but you did not. So, it seems I was right. Given your attitude, I don't even believe you intended to do what you said you were going to do in good faith. Have a nice day.

datameta 5y ago

If you truly want to look at it that way then it has to be a utilitarian net harm calculation.

Y-bar 5y ago

I live in one of those areas and climate change is _harming_ us today, here a couple of examples: - Milder winters mean more ticks and pests survive to eat lumber and spread disease, causing personal harm as well as economic. - Warmer and drier summers decrease agricultural output - A grater variety of rainfall cause mudslides and property damage increases - Snakes can survive further north, to the mountains eating birds eggs which have never needed to understand the danger of them - Boars survive winters better, causing destructions to agriculture. - Higher frequently of forest fires. - Algae at the coast bloom more intensely, preventing tourism and suffocates other species.

swader999 5y ago
The only thing proven is slightly milder winters. Agriculture output has done nothing but increase every year. Forest fires on the decline. We've been getting warmer since the last ice age for sure, more so the last forty years but not at a dire rate. Sea level rise has varied between 1.5 and 3mm per year since useful records started, again, that rate of change is easy to handle. Humans have and will adapt with very little hardship. The panicked masses fed by headline grabbing media and climate 'modeling' that fails basic back testing are just as bad as the outright deniers.