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Housing isn't a bubble right now. It's a completely rational and explainable response to low supply, a short term burst of demand (from 12 months of no one buyi

Housing isn't a bubble right now. It's a completely rational and explainable response to low supply, a short term burst of demand (from 12 months of no one buying), expensive materials (pandemic supply chain issues), and low interest rates. It'll work itself out. That being said, people probably shouldn't be buying houses while waiving inspections.

emerged 5y ago
It sucks wanting a home right now. Holding off will raise your own property value but if you’re looking for an upgrade, it raises your future property value even more for a net loss. But if you try to rush in now, the supply is abysmal leaving you to make significant compromises, and there’s a real chance this winds up being a bubble that bursts giving you a major equity loss.
- 1270018080 5y ago
  Not a bubble, so no risk of that. Regardless, holding out on buying a house is the better move financially 99% of the time, because equities have outpaced housing appreciation since... basically forever. So the longer you wait the more affordable a house becomes.
  - adam_arthur 5y ago
    You buy a house on leverage, so appreciation comment is not quite true. Unless you are levered 5/1 on equities as well, in the scenario. But you can get margin called on leveraged equity, not so on housing, so risk profile is quite different. Also depends on locale the house is bought in. Real home prices have now reached an ATH in recorded history, per Shiller. Real as in inflation adjusted. You should consider too that we had two 50% drawdowns in equities in the past 20 years, and current valuations rival dotcom days on the S&P. I'm not saying to sit it out, but there is kindling in place for potential big drawdowns. Impossible to time, but one catalyst could be persistent inflation forcing the fed to ratchet up interest rates faster than people expect.

emerged 5y ago

It sucks wanting a home right now. Holding off will raise your own property value but if you’re looking for an upgrade, it raises your future property value even more for a net loss. But if you try to rush in now, the supply is abysmal leaving you to make significant compromises, and there’s a real chance this winds up being a bubble that bursts giving you a major equity loss.

1270018080 5y ago
Not a bubble, so no risk of that. Regardless, holding out on buying a house is the better move financially 99% of the time, because equities have outpaced housing appreciation since... basically forever. So the longer you wait the more affordable a house becomes.
- adam_arthur 5y ago
  You buy a house on leverage, so appreciation comment is not quite true. Unless you are levered 5/1 on equities as well, in the scenario. But you can get margin called on leveraged equity, not so on housing, so risk profile is quite different. Also depends on locale the house is bought in. Real home prices have now reached an ATH in recorded history, per Shiller. Real as in inflation adjusted. You should consider too that we had two 50% drawdowns in equities in the past 20 years, and current valuations rival dotcom days on the S&P. I'm not saying to sit it out, but there is kindling in place for potential big drawdowns. Impossible to time, but one catalyst could be persistent inflation forcing the fed to ratchet up interest rates faster than people expect.