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My question was towards: > It's already demonstrated that the big cloud providers will cut you off with little warning if you run afoul of their political sens

by scrose 5y ago

My question was towards: > It's already demonstrated that the big cloud providers will cut you off with little warning if you run afoul of their political sensibilities. So the only way to use those services is in the most generic way you can, so that migrations don't cost more because of it. You are stating that you moved from one cloud to another. The question is how you manage to build a company of any size that can just flip a switch and move to a new service provider without needing to transition teams to using new services and that costing money. If we're talking about moving a simple server from AWS to GCP, sure that's no problem. But if you or anyone at your company is actually using a cloud providers services for more than hosting a server, there is no possible way you can just flip a switch and migrate over.

dilyevsky 5y ago
I’m talking about annual cloud spends in tens of millions here. It’s doable but you have to design for this or it takes a long time
- scarface74 5y ago
  And if you are spending in the tens of millions, any cloud provider is going to negotiate discounts with you to keep you on board. You’re not getting retail price. So you’re still spending more trying to maintain “cloud agnosticism” by hosting everything on VMs instead of using managed services.
  - dilyevsky 5y ago
    The discount is not as much as you’d think. They’ll do it for some high margin services like storage and gpu (where markup is just ridiculous) but won’t budge on network for some reason. In the end they gon getcha anyway
  - dilyevsky 5y ago
    Oh and btw the models that i had worked out had ~10-12mo breakeven for colo vs cloud including the discount since you’re doing 3y commit anyway. If you’re going with private dc you have to be really large to make it work but if you have large egress charge it becomes instantly worth it (like in dropbox case)
    - scarface74 5y ago
      How’s that working for Dropbox? They aren’t exactly a shining example of moving from the cloud and becoming extremely profitable. They still haven’t made a GAAP profit. Like Jobs said, Dropbox is a feature not a product. For the same price you pay for Dropbox and 2TB, you can get the full Office 365 suite plus 6TB of storage or the entire GSuite. And do you have multiple redundant DCs? Are all of your database writes duplicated 6x across three DCs like Aurora?
      - dilyevsky 5y ago
        > How’s that working for Dropbox? They aren’t exactly a shining example of moving from the cloud and becoming extremely profitable. They still haven’t made a GAAP profit. That’s just silly - dropbox is profitable if you exclude stock comp unlike box inc (who afaik runs in cloud) and also has higher margins (big shocker here). From techincal side i hear it worked out really well for them too. > Like Jobs said, Dropbox is a feature not a product. What does that have to do with anything? Not helping your argument at all > For the same price you pay for Dropbox and 2TB, you can get the full Office 365 suite plus 6TB of storage or the entire GSuite. Should be painfully obvious to anyone arguing in good faith why that is. Also do you by any chance think google runs gsuite on aws or gcp? > And do you have multiple redundant DCs? Are all of your database writes duplicated 6x across three DCs like Aurora? Yes, you run mutiple redunant colos/dcs and peer them. You’re making it sound like rocket science but it really isn’t. If Internet Archive can do it with their resources (not a dig towards their talent at all) so can unicorns flush with vc cash who supposedly hire “the best”
        scarface74 5y ago
        Dropbox is profitable as long as you exclude the fact that they have to pay people… How many people who are comparing their costs to using a cloud provider are ignoring redundancy? And I’m sure your average startup has the capability to maintain their own redundant data center. Besides, does it add business value? Would they really be better off hiring multiple infrastructure people or just paying a cloud provider. It doesn’t matter why it’s the case. People keep bringing up Dropbox as a shining example of moving away from a cloud provider - and still not being profitable. But ignore a little company - Netflix - that did just the opposite.
- scrose 5y ago
  It seems that the question you are answering, and that I don’t disagree with and am not asking is ‘can you move to a different service provider?’. Not ‘how do you move to a different service provider without incurring costs to transition to different services?’, which is what my question actually is.
  - dilyevsky 5y ago
    The cost is one time and can be relatively contained. Also if you design for redundancy you dont have to do a hard cutoff - just deploy your next region to a dc/different cloud and then gradually drain old ones.

by scrose 5y ago

dilyevsky 5y ago

I’m talking about annual cloud spends in tens of millions here. It’s doable but you have to design for this or it takes a long time

scarface74 5y ago
And if you are spending in the tens of millions, any cloud provider is going to negotiate discounts with you to keep you on board. You’re not getting retail price. So you’re still spending more trying to maintain “cloud agnosticism” by hosting everything on VMs instead of using managed services.
- dilyevsky 5y ago
  The discount is not as much as you’d think. They’ll do it for some high margin services like storage and gpu (where markup is just ridiculous) but won’t budge on network for some reason. In the end they gon getcha anyway
- dilyevsky 5y ago
  Oh and btw the models that i had worked out had ~10-12mo breakeven for colo vs cloud including the discount since you’re doing 3y commit anyway. If you’re going with private dc you have to be really large to make it work but if you have large egress charge it becomes instantly worth it (like in dropbox case)
  - scarface74 5y ago
    How’s that working for Dropbox? They aren’t exactly a shining example of moving from the cloud and becoming extremely profitable. They still haven’t made a GAAP profit. Like Jobs said, Dropbox is a feature not a product. For the same price you pay for Dropbox and 2TB, you can get the full Office 365 suite plus 6TB of storage or the entire GSuite. And do you have multiple redundant DCs? Are all of your database writes duplicated 6x across three DCs like Aurora?
    - dilyevsky 5y ago
      > How’s that working for Dropbox? They aren’t exactly a shining example of moving from the cloud and becoming extremely profitable. They still haven’t made a GAAP profit. That’s just silly - dropbox is profitable if you exclude stock comp unlike box inc (who afaik runs in cloud) and also has higher margins (big shocker here). From techincal side i hear it worked out really well for them too. > Like Jobs said, Dropbox is a feature not a product. What does that have to do with anything? Not helping your argument at all > For the same price you pay for Dropbox and 2TB, you can get the full Office 365 suite plus 6TB of storage or the entire GSuite. Should be painfully obvious to anyone arguing in good faith why that is. Also do you by any chance think google runs gsuite on aws or gcp? > And do you have multiple redundant DCs? Are all of your database writes duplicated 6x across three DCs like Aurora? Yes, you run mutiple redunant colos/dcs and peer them. You’re making it sound like rocket science but it really isn’t. If Internet Archive can do it with their resources (not a dig towards their talent at all) so can unicorns flush with vc cash who supposedly hire “the best”
      - scarface74 5y ago
        Dropbox is profitable as long as you exclude the fact that they have to pay people… How many people who are comparing their costs to using a cloud provider are ignoring redundancy? And I’m sure your average startup has the capability to maintain their own redundant data center. Besides, does it add business value? Would they really be better off hiring multiple infrastructure people or just paying a cloud provider. It doesn’t matter why it’s the case. People keep bringing up Dropbox as a shining example of moving away from a cloud provider - and still not being profitable. But ignore a little company - Netflix - that did just the opposite.
scrose 5y ago
It seems that the question you are answering, and that I don’t disagree with and am not asking is ‘can you move to a different service provider?’. Not ‘how do you move to a different service provider without incurring costs to transition to different services?’, which is what my question actually is.
- dilyevsky 5y ago
  The cost is one time and can be relatively contained. Also if you design for redundancy you dont have to do a hard cutoff - just deploy your next region to a dc/different cloud and then gradually drain old ones.