4 ms·
I've been interested and following the science around this. I've been heavily favoring genetic evidence over other things, those other things tending to be circ
by mikem170 5y ago
I've been interested and following the science around this. I've been heavily favoring genetic evidence over other things, those other things tending to be circumstantial, conflicting, and/or not well sourced. So I give the most weight to published scientific studies and information presented by scientists helping me connect and crosscheck those dots.
There's a lot of data. Here's a couple of the specific references throwing doubt on Wuhan as the origin for the pandemic [0] [1]. I know these are from last March, but I don't think that invalidates them, unless there are new studies with conflicting info. Here's another one on how 2.7% of people tested in villages near bat caves had antibodies from bat coronavirus infections during the prior 2-3 years [2], with only 1 person out of 218 who touched a dead bat, and 20 who saw bats fly over their houses. Nobody eating bats. Nature happens, viruses spread.
It's hard for me to blame the lab based on nothing more than
circumstantial evidence at this point, which mostly points towards bats, when it's known that there are hundreds of coronaviruses, and hundreds of mammal species they can jump across, and the history of all kinds of viruses jumping between animals and people, even specifically coronaviruses jumping from bats to people. I just don't feel the need to blame the lab without solid evidence when nature does things like this as a matter of course.
I assume that you would agree this is not definitively proven either way yet - nature vs lab? We appear to base our opinions on different evidence and lean in different directions on the probabilities.
I'm actually kind of flummoxed about your statement that "most scientists (specifically, virologists) say that the lab leak theory is the most plausible". That's not what I'm seeing at all. They pretty much all seem to be saying most likely from bats, lab leak could be possible. Seems like you were exaggerating.
[0] https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-13/scientist-suggests-coronavirus-originated-outside-of-wuhan https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-...
[1] https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus-china https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus...
[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6178078/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6178078/