6 ms·

The history of lab leaks

67 points by wearywanderer 5y ago

BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
I don’t know how to explain this, but how did it become acceptable to hold the “lab leak” theory about the origins of covid? For the longest time the experts and the news media was dead set against taking this origin hypothesis seriously and to have published this particular article a year ago would be tantamount to inciting misinformation. The insinuation of talking about lab leaks would be considered irresponsible because it could sway people into thinking the lab hypothesis could have merit. So what actually changed? How did it go from a conspiracy theory to something that’s plausible and open to discussion?
- ohiovr 5y ago
  The tide of the press turns on the persistence of people with hard to dismiss factual evidence.
- kgwxd 5y ago
  Last year, claims weren't based on evidence. Even if they turn out to be right, doesn't mean they were "right" at the time.
  - FillardMillmore 5y ago
    Sure, but I still don't know if this answers the question. A year ago, we didn't have hard evidence that the virus had a zoonotic origin either (and we still don't). And yet, news media and social media companies actively suppressed those who even wanted to discuss the very real possibility that the virus came from a lab, branding them as conspiracy theorists and peddlers of misinformation.
  - ergocoder 5y ago
    Let's just admit that nobody looks at it seriously because anyone who even hinted at it would be labeled a racist. It's labeled as racist because Trump said it first. Now that trump is gone, we can go back to a normal situation where we discuss any theory without being called racist.
    - FillardMillmore 5y ago
      This doesn't make sense to me. Why would humoring the idea that it came from a lab be "racist"? Did anyone with a real platform and influence ever make that claim? What would make the idea that it came from a Chinese lab more racist than the idea that it was spread because Chinese people have strange and unsafe wet markets where they trade and eat strange and gross (to us Westerners) animals?
      - ergocoder 5y ago
        > Why would humoring the idea that it came from a lab be "racist"? Because Trump said it. And trump doesn't exactly have great credit when it comes to not being racist against Chinese people. So, we label this theory as conspiracist and racist. I don't think i have further explanation.
      - dcow 5y ago
        It doesn't make sense to me either but I anecdotally encountered people who think any suggestion, idea, theory, that implicates a non-white “race” of people, even if in a neutral non-accusatory way, is inherently and problematically racist.
      - jasonboyd 5y ago
        It doesn't make sense, but yes, it was a thing people did say and continue to say. Apoorva Mandavilli, a science and health reporter for the NYT just yesterday (May 26) tweeted "Someday we will stop talking about the lab leak theory and maybe even admit its racist roots. But alas, that day is not yet here." That's a recent example I know off the top of my head.
    - frogpelt 5y ago
      I think you're right. I believe (with no way to prove it) if Trump had, with his trademark tone and delivery, blamed China's Wuhan Seafood Market and thrown in a few choice insults about China, that theory would have been the one Big Media shut down and filtered out. Instead it was the lab leak theory.
  - COGlory 5y ago
    That's simply not true. The genetic evidence was there the entire time.
  - koolba 5y ago
    Saying there’s no evidence as a rationale to ban discussion of investigating the simplest of explanations was purely political. I never understood the supposed racism angle either. Why is it racist to suggest a Chinese lab studying corona viruses leaked it out, whether accidentally or deliberately, but it was perfectly fine to say it appeared by itself in an unregulated Chinese wet market?
- shkkmo 5y ago
  This article recently posted to HN examines the whole process: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27307175 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27307175 TL;DR lots of conflation of "lab leak" with "man made".
  - gred 5y ago
    > TL;DR lots of conflation of "lab leak" with "man made". Mixed with media sensationalism and political tribalism... Actually, the most interesting part of the linked article (IMO) was the suggestion that it actually doesn't matter whether or not it was a lab leak, because nothing will change one way or the other. I would hope that's wrong.
- dmix 5y ago
  > So what actually changed? How did it go from a conspiracy theory to something that’s plausible and open to discussion? The answer is obvious. Do you really need an answer? Ditto with Facebook suddenly changing face...
  - BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
    I think I know what you’re getting at, but why now, five months into the new administration?
    - adinosaur123 5y ago
      A better question is this: Why did the current administration suddenly shut down an ongoing inquiry started by the last administration, only to immediately turn around and announce a "new" investigation? That's very, very bizarre.
    - pedroma 5y ago
      It was always a plausible theory. Why would time change that, especially once it's brought up again with new evidence.
    - hn8788 5y ago
      Maybe so they can claim they've had time to review the information on their own, and determined it's not a conspiracy. If they'd done it sooner they would have been lumped in with Trump supporters, and you can see see people in the comments here saying that they assume that everything he says is racist/lying, so they didn't want internet mobs to claim they're racist too.
    - dsyrk 5y ago
      It’s because the evidence is overwhelming and political establishment has realized it will be impossible to suppress the information. Will we “cancel” an eminent virologist and former President of Caltech because he explains transparently to people the smoking gun with the FCS and CGG condons. This isn’t even “just” a lab leak of a naturally occurring dangerous virus, it’s a lab leak of a synthetic gain of function virus. Previously since it was Trump’s people saying it, ok that was easy to discredit and claim racist china hate at all that. What are they going to do though now? round up all the world’s scientists and try to silence them. The’ve throw in the towel, that’s what’s changed, the corruption and intimidation only worked so far, only so many scientists able to influence and try to manipulate the narrative with. Some of those have even turned on the CCP boot lickers, realizing the game is up. It’s too damn obvious. This is now damage control mode. Also they needed to wait for the worst of it to be over, that way less political fallout. Imagine they actually admitted this all officially last year, before the peak waves.
- Leary 5y ago
  Last year, it was officials under the Trump administration and Republican legislators pushing this idea. This year, it's former Trump administration officials leaking intel to the Wall Street Journal anonymously and it caught fire.
- Natsu 5y ago
  Nothing really changed, it's just that the evidence keeps mounting on one side and hard to explain facts keep coming up for the other. There's a coherent theory of how and why this could be a lab leak (published research leaving a trail in this direction, BSL-2 safety precautions, etc.) and a lot of holes in the fully zoonotic explanations. The virus appears to have already been adapted to human hosts, which is hard to explain... unless via humanized mice. The intermediate animal reservoirs have not been located, so there's a decent sized evolutionary jump in the record, the furin cleavage site with the strange codons, etc. Meanwhile objections from the other side, like the lack of markers from CRISPR, can be explained by seamless techniques, gain of function research in humanized mice, etc. Mind you, I never bought the 'bioweapon' conspiracy nonsense, there's just no realistic motive for that. But it was pointed out early on that there were good reasons to study a virus just like this one and scientists have been putting the pieces together into a coherent theory that points towards lab escape.
  - newacct583 5y ago
    > a lot of holes in the fully zoonotic explanations. This part just isn't true. We have a close relative on the same continent. That's almost as good as you ever get. There is nothing difficult to explain about a conventional evolution here, nothing at all.
    - Natsu 5y ago
      There's also a related theory where one of the bat researchers got sick from a bat virus and brought it back to Wuhan. Most of this rests on the relative probabilities of events. The "same continent" is 1,000 miles away and far away from the allegedly intermediate pangolins. With it being this widespread, it's weird that we can't find the animal reservoir and it's significantly diverged ... and adapted to humans ... from the bat coronavirus relative. Sure, there's no good reason to stop considering the zoonotic explanation. If we suddenly find the missing links in the evolutionary record and whatnot, then things will change and people will consider that evidence more likely. But right now, the balance of the evidence is tipping away from that. It could tip back, but that'll require new evidence for a zoonotic explanation and there just hasn't been any that I've seen recently, just the same old things we've already accounted for.
- batch12 5y ago
  The answer is simple. People have allowed themselves to become so divided that it is hard to find common ground. This had the effect of polarizing all discussion and information. We can't agree on anything or begin any kind of healing when we all believe our rivals are wrong about absolutely everything and our immediate reaction is denial. That is what happened here. We never had the chance to talk because we denied ourselves the opportunity through self-censorship, cheering on anger mobs, and begging our social nannys to protect us from the discourse.
  - shkkmo 5y ago
    Perhaps in general, but in this specific case, when the confusion arose, this was not yet a partisan issue. What happened us that the initially nuanced criticism of some lab leak speculation had its nuance erased by increasingly sensational headlines and tweets. As this occured, lab leak speculation was repeatedly and increasingly conflated with theories that it was man made. See recent discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27307175 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27307175
    - dcow 5y ago
      It doesn't answer the question though. The question becomes “how did we as humans become so insensitive to rhetorically sound discourse that we allowed ourselves to devolve into such a rut of confusion and disarray?”
      - shkkmo 5y ago
        I don't think confusion of facts due to poor transmission of information is particularly new. The factors that cause it shift with time but I think the clean transmission of information is the exception rather than the rule.
      - 542458 5y ago
        Except that it wasn’t rhetorically sound. When it was initially argued that it was a lab produced virus, there zero evidence and was purely used for political posturing. As such, the argument was rejected by many. I don’t run out and do significant new research every time somebody drags out something that I saw no reason to believe in the past - I would never get anything done if I did! “The boy who cried wolf” is a bit allegorical here. The other part of this is that the lab leak hypothesis has been used as a gateway by people peddling anti-Asian rhetoric, including that this was a bioweapon or evil plot to cripple America. As such, I tend to tune out of such discussions pretty fast. It’s like if somebody mentions judaism and bankers in the same sentence - I can normally just assume whatever comes next will be nonsense. There’s so much bullshit on the internet that paying attention to all of it would be crippling, and unfortunately the lab leak idea managed to become associated with that sort of vitriol early on. That said, even today I reject any definitive affirmative on the lab leak hypothesis. There’s nothing even vaguely approaching hard evidence, and the less dramatic explanation still seems to have very good scientific support. If/when somebody pulls out better evidence I’ll reconsider.
- pyuser583 5y ago
  Here’s the best explanation I’ve found: “How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab leak theory.” https://donaldgmcneiljr1954.medium.com/how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-lab-leak-theory-f4f88446b04d https://donaldgmcneiljr1954.medium.com/how-i-learned-to-stop... Edit: part of the issue is “what is a lab leak?” It’s not a bio weapon, or a failed vaccine. The respectable “lab leak theory” is that the virus was identified in the wild, brought into a lab, but safety procedures were not followed. So it’s not a “Chinese created virus” theory. It’s a “someone wasn’t following proper procedures” theory.
  - AdamJacobMuller 5y ago
    I think a lot of the "anti-lab-leak" theory people were anti-lab-leak because they were really anti "china engineered a genetically targeted virus which only targets non-chinese in order to attack the rest of the world so the lizard people can take over". The idea of a lab leak causing a global pandemic which basically paralyzed the world for a year is conspiracy theory level crazy nightmare fuel. It doesn't mean it's not true. It doesn't mean it's on the same level as lizard-people.
    - pyuser583 5y ago
      I mean accidents happen. The Chinese government has recently adopted a science policy that based quantity over quality. Think the genetically engineered babies. Illegally genetically engineering babies is about as far out there as it gets. But it happeneded.
      - justicezyx 5y ago
        > The Chinese government has recently adopted a science policy that based quantity over quality. I have no idea what is the reference here. Quantity and quality were emphasized constantly in any nation-wide policy making. I was growing up in China for 24 years, I never sensed any emphasis on quantity over quality. To give an recent example, China has created so-called "future technology institute" for cutting edge fundamental researches [0]. That's aiming the most advanced technology research. > Think the genetically engineered babies. Illegally genetically engineering babies is about as far out there as it gets. The scientist, Jiankui He, who claimed that he had created the first human genetically edited babies [1] was widely criticized in mainland China [2] (in Chinese, Baidu's copycat of Wikipedia). Mr. He was later sentenced to 3 years prison, and 3M RMB fine. His collaborators were sentenced to prison time as well [3]. Mr. He was a rogue scientist at best. Your statement are connecting a statement of China values quantity over quality and gene editing human baby, I don't see the connection here, even if the the first statement was true (which itself were not). [0] http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2021-05/26/c_1127495262.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2021-05/26/c_1127495262.ht... [1] https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/04/18/239297/the-scientist-who-created-crispr-babies-is-on-times-most-influential-list-but/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/04/18/239297/the-scien... [2] https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E8%B4%BA%E5%BB%BA%E5%A5%8E/2971172#6 https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E8%B4%BA%E5%BB%BA%E5%A5%8E/297... [3] http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-12/30/c_138666754.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-12/30/c_138666754.htm
- asquabventured 5y ago
  It's simple, the orange man is no longer president. Our media has lost all credibility but they got the mean tweeter out of office so I guess yay for them!
- newacct583 5y ago
  > So what actually changed? The Journal article that sourced actual intelligence sources pointing to an outbreak among lab researchers at exactly the right time to plausibly explain the pandemic is most of it. Evidence (actual evidence, not the circumstantial nonsense being peddled about by partisans) convinces people. Isn't that what you want to happen? But clearly it's NOT what you want to happen. You want everyone to come back grovelling admitting how you were clearly right about everything the whole time. But... you weren't. Evidence was poor then, and if not good now at least plausibly acceptable. You need to be thanking those Journal reporters, who saved you from your own paranoia.
  - dcow 5y ago
    What? There was real evidence weeks after. And then the Chinese journalist trying to share it was detained. There was even a github repo linking together all the different leads. And you didn't listen because it wasn't socially acceptable to enter that realm of possibilities because it felt dirty.
    - newacct583 5y ago
      > the Chinese journalist trying to share it was detained. There was even a github repo linking together all the different leads OK, no. That's not the evidence people are talking about, even now. That's the garbage that fed the conspiracy theory. Find me a reputable source who's flipped on the garbage. What you're finding is people changing their priors based on good evidence, not deciding to believe garbage.
      - dcow 5y ago
        I don't claim to know all the details. Can you explain how a whistleblower being detained is “garbage evidence” or which of the events was garbage? I’d like to understand where you’re coming from.
        justicezyx 5y ago
        Where is the report of this?
- kaliali 5y ago
  WATCH: Sen. Rand Paul Grills Fauci Over U.S. Funding For Wuhan Lab, Origin Of Virus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSt7ls2zIoY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSt7ls2zIoY Biosafety Expert Explains Why Fauci’s NIH ‘Gain-of-Function’ Testimony Was ‘Demonstrably False’ https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/biosafety-expert-explains-why-faucis-nih-gain-of-function-testimony-was-demonstrably-false/ar-BB1gHnko https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/biosafety-expert-ex... Days after Rand Paul caught Fauci lying, showing a money trail of NIH funding for coronavirus research leading back to Wuhan, Fauci started saying he's ‘not convinced’ COVID developed naturally, and backs investigation https://nypost.com/2021/05/23/fauci-not-convinced-covid-19-developed-naturally/ https://nypost.com/2021/05/23/fauci-not-convinced-covid-19-d...
- zachrose 5y ago
  The Nicholson Baker piece published several months ago made a compelling but not watertight case to me, a non-expert.
- YouthfulMarxism 5y ago
  Political situation has changed. Archenemy is not the orange man anymore, but the China. So, "fact checking" in liberal media (including facebook) got an update and now even more objective and incorruptible than ever.
- frogcoder 5y ago
  I am no expert, but I think one major reason was Trump. He was a supporter of the lab leak theory. Like many others, I was quick to dismiss anything Trump said, and I am not even American. Everything Trump said sounds like a conspiracy. I also finds China's strong denying and uncooperativeness of finding out the virus origin is strange. People would not blame any country if the outbreak came from a natural origin, their reaction makes me think something is going on there.
- pedroma 5y ago
  Trump Derangement Sydrome, where one's judgment is clouded by hatred of Donald Trump.
- zjoq9ka23rau 5y ago
  Covid is not lab leak. It is deliberately released virus. Western world hard to accept that how can a govenment release the virus to its own people. But we Chinese do not have this question. Because we had so many lessions, the notorious ones are the 1989 TianAn Meng massacre, and the organ harvest from live people. When you cannot hold "lab leak" theory, you should ask yourself why PLA's teaching material published in 2015 teaches PLA to attack other countries by using the bio weapon, not having high death rate, but to destroy their medical system and economy. https://www.telegraphindia.com/world/china-probed-weaponising-coronavirus-in-2015-reports/cid/1815074 https://www.telegraphindia.com/world/china-probed-weaponisin... https://item.taobao.com/item.htm?id=615141688185#detail https://item.taobao.com/item.htm?id=615141688185#detail you should ask yourself why China the largest PPE production country bought out PPE from other countries before pandemic? you should ask yourself why China wont accept WHO's full investigation
- justicezyx 5y ago
  I mean, look at what Biden administration are beefing up the confrontation with China. And things are calming down. The intention to confront is enough for this.
- underseacables 5y ago
  An election, IMO.
- oceanghost 5y ago
  What happened was... Donald Trump might have been right for the wrong reason (jingoism as opposed to evidence). It's literally a case of "a broken clock is right twice a day." -- but nobody can discuss it rationally because people have lost the ability to do disambiguate information. My understanding is the NIH was sponsoring GOF research at the Wuhan lab precisely because it was considered to be too dangerous to be done domestically-- and guess what-- it was. And now those folks who funded that very research were in charge of the sham "investigation" to look into it. And before you ask-- I am as progressive as they come.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
ck2 5y ago
Just like the public knows in general how many nuclear bombs we have in America, we should have the right to know every disease we are purposely keeping alive somewhere in a lab. Don't have to say where but we should know so we can question why outside of their closed loop of "logic".
- FillardMillmore 5y ago
  Not a bad idea, but definitely would be difficult to enforce. I think to enforce it, we'd need an international body of regulators and international agreements to abide by them - and we'd have to get countries to agree to it. What would be the benefit to a country like China to join?
- amanaplanacanal 5y ago
  I assume that just about every virus or bacteria known to be dangerous is being studied in a lab somewhere. How else do you research treatments, cures, or vaccines?

67 points by wearywanderer 5y ago

I don’t know how to explain this, but how did it become acceptable to hold the “lab leak” theory about the origins of covid? For the longest time the experts and the news media was dead set against taking this origin hypothesis seriously and to have published this particular article a year ago would be tantamount to inciting misinformation. The insinuation of talking about lab leaks would be considered irresponsible because it could sway people into thinking the lab hypothesis could have merit. So what actually changed? How did it go from a conspiracy theory to something that’s plausible and open to discussion?

ohiovr 5y ago
The tide of the press turns on the persistence of people with hard to dismiss factual evidence.
kgwxd 5y ago
Last year, claims weren't based on evidence. Even if they turn out to be right, doesn't mean they were "right" at the time.
- FillardMillmore 5y ago
  Sure, but I still don't know if this answers the question. A year ago, we didn't have hard evidence that the virus had a zoonotic origin either (and we still don't). And yet, news media and social media companies actively suppressed those who even wanted to discuss the very real possibility that the virus came from a lab, branding them as conspiracy theorists and peddlers of misinformation.
- ergocoder 5y ago
  Let's just admit that nobody looks at it seriously because anyone who even hinted at it would be labeled a racist. It's labeled as racist because Trump said it first. Now that trump is gone, we can go back to a normal situation where we discuss any theory without being called racist.
  - FillardMillmore 5y ago
    This doesn't make sense to me. Why would humoring the idea that it came from a lab be "racist"? Did anyone with a real platform and influence ever make that claim? What would make the idea that it came from a Chinese lab more racist than the idea that it was spread because Chinese people have strange and unsafe wet markets where they trade and eat strange and gross (to us Westerners) animals?
    - ergocoder 5y ago
      > Why would humoring the idea that it came from a lab be "racist"? Because Trump said it. And trump doesn't exactly have great credit when it comes to not being racist against Chinese people. So, we label this theory as conspiracist and racist. I don't think i have further explanation.
    - dcow 5y ago
      It doesn't make sense to me either but I anecdotally encountered people who think any suggestion, idea, theory, that implicates a non-white “race” of people, even if in a neutral non-accusatory way, is inherently and problematically racist.
    - jasonboyd 5y ago
      It doesn't make sense, but yes, it was a thing people did say and continue to say. Apoorva Mandavilli, a science and health reporter for the NYT just yesterday (May 26) tweeted "Someday we will stop talking about the lab leak theory and maybe even admit its racist roots. But alas, that day is not yet here." That's a recent example I know off the top of my head.
  - frogpelt 5y ago
    I think you're right. I believe (with no way to prove it) if Trump had, with his trademark tone and delivery, blamed China's Wuhan Seafood Market and thrown in a few choice insults about China, that theory would have been the one Big Media shut down and filtered out. Instead it was the lab leak theory.
- COGlory 5y ago
  That's simply not true. The genetic evidence was there the entire time.
- koolba 5y ago
  Saying there’s no evidence as a rationale to ban discussion of investigating the simplest of explanations was purely political. I never understood the supposed racism angle either. Why is it racist to suggest a Chinese lab studying corona viruses leaked it out, whether accidentally or deliberately, but it was perfectly fine to say it appeared by itself in an unregulated Chinese wet market?
shkkmo 5y ago
This article recently posted to HN examines the whole process: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27307175 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27307175 TL;DR lots of conflation of "lab leak" with "man made".
- gred 5y ago
  > TL;DR lots of conflation of "lab leak" with "man made". Mixed with media sensationalism and political tribalism... Actually, the most interesting part of the linked article (IMO) was the suggestion that it actually doesn't matter whether or not it was a lab leak, because nothing will change one way or the other. I would hope that's wrong.
dmix 5y ago
> So what actually changed? How did it go from a conspiracy theory to something that’s plausible and open to discussion? The answer is obvious. Do you really need an answer? Ditto with Facebook suddenly changing face...
- BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
  I think I know what you’re getting at, but why now, five months into the new administration?
  - adinosaur123 5y ago
    A better question is this: Why did the current administration suddenly shut down an ongoing inquiry started by the last administration, only to immediately turn around and announce a "new" investigation? That's very, very bizarre.
  - pedroma 5y ago
    It was always a plausible theory. Why would time change that, especially once it's brought up again with new evidence.
  - hn8788 5y ago
    Maybe so they can claim they've had time to review the information on their own, and determined it's not a conspiracy. If they'd done it sooner they would have been lumped in with Trump supporters, and you can see see people in the comments here saying that they assume that everything he says is racist/lying, so they didn't want internet mobs to claim they're racist too.
  - dsyrk 5y ago
    It’s because the evidence is overwhelming and political establishment has realized it will be impossible to suppress the information. Will we “cancel” an eminent virologist and former President of Caltech because he explains transparently to people the smoking gun with the FCS and CGG condons. This isn’t even “just” a lab leak of a naturally occurring dangerous virus, it’s a lab leak of a synthetic gain of function virus. Previously since it was Trump’s people saying it, ok that was easy to discredit and claim racist china hate at all that. What are they going to do though now? round up all the world’s scientists and try to silence them. The’ve throw in the towel, that’s what’s changed, the corruption and intimidation only worked so far, only so many scientists able to influence and try to manipulate the narrative with. Some of those have even turned on the CCP boot lickers, realizing the game is up. It’s too damn obvious. This is now damage control mode. Also they needed to wait for the worst of it to be over, that way less political fallout. Imagine they actually admitted this all officially last year, before the peak waves.
Leary 5y ago
Last year, it was officials under the Trump administration and Republican legislators pushing this idea. This year, it's former Trump administration officials leaking intel to the Wall Street Journal anonymously and it caught fire.
Natsu 5y ago
Nothing really changed, it's just that the evidence keeps mounting on one side and hard to explain facts keep coming up for the other. There's a coherent theory of how and why this could be a lab leak (published research leaving a trail in this direction, BSL-2 safety precautions, etc.) and a lot of holes in the fully zoonotic explanations. The virus appears to have already been adapted to human hosts, which is hard to explain... unless via humanized mice. The intermediate animal reservoirs have not been located, so there's a decent sized evolutionary jump in the record, the furin cleavage site with the strange codons, etc. Meanwhile objections from the other side, like the lack of markers from CRISPR, can be explained by seamless techniques, gain of function research in humanized mice, etc. Mind you, I never bought the 'bioweapon' conspiracy nonsense, there's just no realistic motive for that. But it was pointed out early on that there were good reasons to study a virus just like this one and scientists have been putting the pieces together into a coherent theory that points towards lab escape.
- newacct583 5y ago
  > a lot of holes in the fully zoonotic explanations. This part just isn't true. We have a close relative on the same continent. That's almost as good as you ever get. There is nothing difficult to explain about a conventional evolution here, nothing at all.
  - Natsu 5y ago
    There's also a related theory where one of the bat researchers got sick from a bat virus and brought it back to Wuhan. Most of this rests on the relative probabilities of events. The "same continent" is 1,000 miles away and far away from the allegedly intermediate pangolins. With it being this widespread, it's weird that we can't find the animal reservoir and it's significantly diverged ... and adapted to humans ... from the bat coronavirus relative. Sure, there's no good reason to stop considering the zoonotic explanation. If we suddenly find the missing links in the evolutionary record and whatnot, then things will change and people will consider that evidence more likely. But right now, the balance of the evidence is tipping away from that. It could tip back, but that'll require new evidence for a zoonotic explanation and there just hasn't been any that I've seen recently, just the same old things we've already accounted for.
batch12 5y ago
The answer is simple. People have allowed themselves to become so divided that it is hard to find common ground. This had the effect of polarizing all discussion and information. We can't agree on anything or begin any kind of healing when we all believe our rivals are wrong about absolutely everything and our immediate reaction is denial. That is what happened here. We never had the chance to talk because we denied ourselves the opportunity through self-censorship, cheering on anger mobs, and begging our social nannys to protect us from the discourse.
- shkkmo 5y ago
  Perhaps in general, but in this specific case, when the confusion arose, this was not yet a partisan issue. What happened us that the initially nuanced criticism of some lab leak speculation had its nuance erased by increasingly sensational headlines and tweets. As this occured, lab leak speculation was repeatedly and increasingly conflated with theories that it was man made. See recent discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27307175 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27307175
  - dcow 5y ago
    It doesn't answer the question though. The question becomes “how did we as humans become so insensitive to rhetorically sound discourse that we allowed ourselves to devolve into such a rut of confusion and disarray?”
    - shkkmo 5y ago
      I don't think confusion of facts due to poor transmission of information is particularly new. The factors that cause it shift with time but I think the clean transmission of information is the exception rather than the rule.
    - 542458 5y ago
      Except that it wasn’t rhetorically sound. When it was initially argued that it was a lab produced virus, there zero evidence and was purely used for political posturing. As such, the argument was rejected by many. I don’t run out and do significant new research every time somebody drags out something that I saw no reason to believe in the past - I would never get anything done if I did! “The boy who cried wolf” is a bit allegorical here. The other part of this is that the lab leak hypothesis has been used as a gateway by people peddling anti-Asian rhetoric, including that this was a bioweapon or evil plot to cripple America. As such, I tend to tune out of such discussions pretty fast. It’s like if somebody mentions judaism and bankers in the same sentence - I can normally just assume whatever comes next will be nonsense. There’s so much bullshit on the internet that paying attention to all of it would be crippling, and unfortunately the lab leak idea managed to become associated with that sort of vitriol early on. That said, even today I reject any definitive affirmative on the lab leak hypothesis. There’s nothing even vaguely approaching hard evidence, and the less dramatic explanation still seems to have very good scientific support. If/when somebody pulls out better evidence I’ll reconsider.
pyuser583 5y ago
Here’s the best explanation I’ve found: “How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab leak theory.” https://donaldgmcneiljr1954.medium.com/how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-lab-leak-theory-f4f88446b04d https://donaldgmcneiljr1954.medium.com/how-i-learned-to-stop... Edit: part of the issue is “what is a lab leak?” It’s not a bio weapon, or a failed vaccine. The respectable “lab leak theory” is that the virus was identified in the wild, brought into a lab, but safety procedures were not followed. So it’s not a “Chinese created virus” theory. It’s a “someone wasn’t following proper procedures” theory.
- AdamJacobMuller 5y ago
  I think a lot of the "anti-lab-leak" theory people were anti-lab-leak because they were really anti "china engineered a genetically targeted virus which only targets non-chinese in order to attack the rest of the world so the lizard people can take over". The idea of a lab leak causing a global pandemic which basically paralyzed the world for a year is conspiracy theory level crazy nightmare fuel. It doesn't mean it's not true. It doesn't mean it's on the same level as lizard-people.
  - pyuser583 5y ago
    I mean accidents happen. The Chinese government has recently adopted a science policy that based quantity over quality. Think the genetically engineered babies. Illegally genetically engineering babies is about as far out there as it gets. But it happeneded.
    - justicezyx 5y ago
      > The Chinese government has recently adopted a science policy that based quantity over quality. I have no idea what is the reference here. Quantity and quality were emphasized constantly in any nation-wide policy making. I was growing up in China for 24 years, I never sensed any emphasis on quantity over quality. To give an recent example, China has created so-called "future technology institute" for cutting edge fundamental researches [0]. That's aiming the most advanced technology research. > Think the genetically engineered babies. Illegally genetically engineering babies is about as far out there as it gets. The scientist, Jiankui He, who claimed that he had created the first human genetically edited babies [1] was widely criticized in mainland China [2] (in Chinese, Baidu's copycat of Wikipedia). Mr. He was later sentenced to 3 years prison, and 3M RMB fine. His collaborators were sentenced to prison time as well [3]. Mr. He was a rogue scientist at best. Your statement are connecting a statement of China values quantity over quality and gene editing human baby, I don't see the connection here, even if the the first statement was true (which itself were not). [0] http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2021-05/26/c_1127495262.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2021-05/26/c_1127495262.ht... [1] https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/04/18/239297/the-scientist-who-created-crispr-babies-is-on-times-most-influential-list-but/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/04/18/239297/the-scien... [2] https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E8%B4%BA%E5%BB%BA%E5%A5%8E/2971172#6 https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E8%B4%BA%E5%BB%BA%E5%A5%8E/297... [3] http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-12/30/c_138666754.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-12/30/c_138666754.htm
asquabventured 5y ago
It's simple, the orange man is no longer president. Our media has lost all credibility but they got the mean tweeter out of office so I guess yay for them!
newacct583 5y ago
> So what actually changed? The Journal article that sourced actual intelligence sources pointing to an outbreak among lab researchers at exactly the right time to plausibly explain the pandemic is most of it. Evidence (actual evidence, not the circumstantial nonsense being peddled about by partisans) convinces people. Isn't that what you want to happen? But clearly it's NOT what you want to happen. You want everyone to come back grovelling admitting how you were clearly right about everything the whole time. But... you weren't. Evidence was poor then, and if not good now at least plausibly acceptable. You need to be thanking those Journal reporters, who saved you from your own paranoia.
- dcow 5y ago
  What? There was real evidence weeks after. And then the Chinese journalist trying to share it was detained. There was even a github repo linking together all the different leads. And you didn't listen because it wasn't socially acceptable to enter that realm of possibilities because it felt dirty.
  - newacct583 5y ago
    > the Chinese journalist trying to share it was detained. There was even a github repo linking together all the different leads OK, no. That's not the evidence people are talking about, even now. That's the garbage that fed the conspiracy theory. Find me a reputable source who's flipped on the garbage. What you're finding is people changing their priors based on good evidence, not deciding to believe garbage.
    - dcow 5y ago
      I don't claim to know all the details. Can you explain how a whistleblower being detained is “garbage evidence” or which of the events was garbage? I’d like to understand where you’re coming from.
      - justicezyx 5y ago
        Where is the report of this?
kaliali 5y ago
WATCH: Sen. Rand Paul Grills Fauci Over U.S. Funding For Wuhan Lab, Origin Of Virus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSt7ls2zIoY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSt7ls2zIoY Biosafety Expert Explains Why Fauci’s NIH ‘Gain-of-Function’ Testimony Was ‘Demonstrably False’ https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/biosafety-expert-explains-why-faucis-nih-gain-of-function-testimony-was-demonstrably-false/ar-BB1gHnko https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/biosafety-expert-ex... Days after Rand Paul caught Fauci lying, showing a money trail of NIH funding for coronavirus research leading back to Wuhan, Fauci started saying he's ‘not convinced’ COVID developed naturally, and backs investigation https://nypost.com/2021/05/23/fauci-not-convinced-covid-19-developed-naturally/ https://nypost.com/2021/05/23/fauci-not-convinced-covid-19-d...
zachrose 5y ago
The Nicholson Baker piece published several months ago made a compelling but not watertight case to me, a non-expert.
YouthfulMarxism 5y ago
Political situation has changed. Archenemy is not the orange man anymore, but the China. So, "fact checking" in liberal media (including facebook) got an update and now even more objective and incorruptible than ever.
frogcoder 5y ago
I am no expert, but I think one major reason was Trump. He was a supporter of the lab leak theory. Like many others, I was quick to dismiss anything Trump said, and I am not even American. Everything Trump said sounds like a conspiracy. I also finds China's strong denying and uncooperativeness of finding out the virus origin is strange. People would not blame any country if the outbreak came from a natural origin, their reaction makes me think something is going on there.
pedroma 5y ago
Trump Derangement Sydrome, where one's judgment is clouded by hatred of Donald Trump.
zjoq9ka23rau 5y ago
Covid is not lab leak. It is deliberately released virus. Western world hard to accept that how can a govenment release the virus to its own people. But we Chinese do not have this question. Because we had so many lessions, the notorious ones are the 1989 TianAn Meng massacre, and the organ harvest from live people. When you cannot hold "lab leak" theory, you should ask yourself why PLA's teaching material published in 2015 teaches PLA to attack other countries by using the bio weapon, not having high death rate, but to destroy their medical system and economy. https://www.telegraphindia.com/world/china-probed-weaponising-coronavirus-in-2015-reports/cid/1815074 https://www.telegraphindia.com/world/china-probed-weaponisin... https://item.taobao.com/item.htm?id=615141688185#detail https://item.taobao.com/item.htm?id=615141688185#detail you should ask yourself why China the largest PPE production country bought out PPE from other countries before pandemic? you should ask yourself why China wont accept WHO's full investigation
justicezyx 5y ago
I mean, look at what Biden administration are beefing up the confrontation with China. And things are calming down. The intention to confront is enough for this.
underseacables 5y ago
An election, IMO.
oceanghost 5y ago
What happened was... Donald Trump might have been right for the wrong reason (jingoism as opposed to evidence). It's literally a case of "a broken clock is right twice a day." -- but nobody can discuss it rationally because people have lost the ability to do disambiguate information. My understanding is the NIH was sponsoring GOF research at the Wuhan lab precisely because it was considered to be too dangerous to be done domestically-- and guess what-- it was. And now those folks who funded that very research were in charge of the sham "investigation" to look into it. And before you ask-- I am as progressive as they come.

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ck2 5y ago

Just like the public knows in general how many nuclear bombs we have in America, we should have the right to know every disease we are purposely keeping alive somewhere in a lab. Don't have to say where but we should know so we can question why outside of their closed loop of "logic".

FillardMillmore 5y ago
Not a bad idea, but definitely would be difficult to enforce. I think to enforce it, we'd need an international body of regulators and international agreements to abide by them - and we'd have to get countries to agree to it. What would be the benefit to a country like China to join?
amanaplanacanal 5y ago
I assume that just about every virus or bacteria known to be dangerous is being studied in a lab somewhere. How else do you research treatments, cures, or vaccines?