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Call me cynical...but... What would any government do about it if it was proven to be a lab leak? They could declare it an accident (probably this would be true

by yawaworht1978 5y ago

Call me cynical...but... What would any government do about it if it was proven to be a lab leak? They could declare it an accident (probably this would be true) and that would be the end of the story. No country would dare to impose sanctions or engage beyond diplomacy. I do not think that the Chinese governments reaction or handling of the case is suspect, they likely want to shut down potential fake news. To label it as potential espionage is an ok measure until there was a conclusive investigation. If this happened in other nations, they would just declare it as a matter of national security and incarcerate whistle blowers too. Look no further than Manning and Snowden. In other words, China will not face any harsh consequences.

paxys 5y ago
There is no way anything can be "proven" in the first place. Does anything think China will will let international investigators waltz into the Wuhan lab and collect samples or something? There will be a ton of meaningless online speculation and people will get bored and move on.
ratsmack 5y ago
How do you think it would play out if it is found that our government (e.g. NIH/CDC) supplied funding for research that created this virus? I suspect many countries would take notice.
- bradford 5y ago
  > funding for research that created this virus? The very question demonstrates part of the problem here: there are ways that it could have been 'released' by the lab without being 'created' in the lab (or any lab). It's not clear to me that people are aware of this when the lab origin theory is discussed. Please don't prematurely make an assumption about what was going on in the lab. It's possible that some researcher went into a cave, took some biological samples from bats back to the lab. Thereafter, lack of proper protocol led to an infection that resulted in the pandemic. Embarrassing for China? yes, and I'd imagine they'd want to cover it up (although such accidents have happened at other worldwide facilities).
  - hooande 5y ago
    This is the smartest comment. Lab leaks happen frequently, it's part of medical research. There's no hard evidence that this virus was engineered or human modified. China didn't create the concept of a virus. Mistakes happen
  - leetrout 5y ago
    This is what I think is very likely given the storage of bat samples in Wuhan. I hate that lab leak is being conflated with engineered. I also think while we want to believe scientists are all honorable individuals that would always speak the truth there are a lot of incentives to not fess up to this and a lot of incentives of other scientists to downplay this theory.
- shkkmo 5y ago
  The US absolutely knew there were risks here. US diplomats knew that the lab had insufficient safety systems for the research that we already know was being done in Wuhan. Those diplomats explicitly warned the US of the dangers several years ago but the US did nothing. [0] If anything, the Wuhan lab needed more US funding that was primarily focused on safety. Edit: If you want to prevent certain types of dangerous research, simply cutting funding is a bad way to do it because it can reduce safety. Instead you need to use other diplomatic or legal tools that won't increase risk. [0] https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin-chaos-under-heaven-wuhan-lab-book-excerpt-474322 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin...
  - ratsmack 5y ago
    Just throwing more money a any particular situation is no guarantee the situation will improve. In this case, the Wuhan lab is controlled by China and will conform to Chinese laws and regulations.
    - ikrenji 5y ago
      true, but also many problems can be solved by throwing more money at them
    - shkkmo 5y ago
      It's quite possible that there was a better response than more funding. Doing nothing does not seem to be it.
tomjen3 5y ago
As a minimum we would hopefully agree to a ban on GoF research for potentially dangerous pathogens. Secondly, we could find the scientist involved and charge him with 3 million 400 thousand counts of involuntary manslaughter, just to put this into perspective. That is more than some genocides, so it isn't that much of stretch for it to constitute crimes against humanity. Crimes against humanity generally have universal jurisdiction, so we could charge the people responsible in the Hague. I doubt we will ever see anybody defending themselves there, but it will cause the next person to think twice about this.
estaseuropano 5y ago
You miss that china also has internal politics. Not everything is about what the US/western countries think/do/want.
- Lammy 5y ago
  Everyone forgot about Hong Kong: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_Hong_Kong_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_Hong_Kong_pr...
wearywanderer 5y ago
It may change the cost/benefit analysis of viral research. If the risk of a lab escape is presently worse than the risk of a natural virus arising, then there are numerous things governments could do to remedy this. Even if a total research ban isn't warranted, it's probably a good idea to consider banning these labs in cities. The labs could be relocated to remote areas where workers are kept quarantined-by-default.
asciimov 5y ago
The far right will use this as a reason to curtail research. Maybe just curtail "dangerous" research at first. Then whatever other research they can convince their followers is also dangerous.
- nfoz 5y ago
  Why would you think that's just a "far right" thing? Actually I don't get what you're insinuating at all. Is anyone opposed to safety protocols?
  - stevenhuang 5y ago
    It's in the nature of those who are politically inclined to try to view everything politically, and they often miss the mark. I just ignore them.
roca 5y ago
If you don't think the CCP handling of the case is suspect, why has Huang Yanling disappeared? If we knew SARS-CoV-2 was leaked from a lab, that would add a lot of weight to the calls for tighter restrictions on lab security and gain-of-function research, worldwide, that have been going on since before COVID. Sure, Chinese labs might go on doing whatever they want, but science is an international community. Scientists who break international norms aren't able to collaborate with other scientists or receive cross-border funding.
KirillPanov 5y ago
> What would any ... do about it if it was proven to be a lab leak? Exactly what was done when Chernobyl was proven to be caused by humans: show the world how reckless and callous the USSR's government really was. Chernobyl was a huge factor in the eventual collapse of the soviet government. They played a very risky game and it had existential consequences for the power structure that caused it.

paxys 5y ago

There is no way anything can be "proven" in the first place. Does anything think China will will let international investigators waltz into the Wuhan lab and collect samples or something? There will be a ton of meaningless online speculation and people will get bored and move on.

ratsmack 5y ago

How do you think it would play out if it is found that our government (e.g. NIH/CDC) supplied funding for research that created this virus? I suspect many countries would take notice.

bradford 5y ago
> funding for research that created this virus? The very question demonstrates part of the problem here: there are ways that it could have been 'released' by the lab without being 'created' in the lab (or any lab). It's not clear to me that people are aware of this when the lab origin theory is discussed. Please don't prematurely make an assumption about what was going on in the lab. It's possible that some researcher went into a cave, took some biological samples from bats back to the lab. Thereafter, lack of proper protocol led to an infection that resulted in the pandemic. Embarrassing for China? yes, and I'd imagine they'd want to cover it up (although such accidents have happened at other worldwide facilities).
- hooande 5y ago
  This is the smartest comment. Lab leaks happen frequently, it's part of medical research. There's no hard evidence that this virus was engineered or human modified. China didn't create the concept of a virus. Mistakes happen
- leetrout 5y ago
  This is what I think is very likely given the storage of bat samples in Wuhan. I hate that lab leak is being conflated with engineered. I also think while we want to believe scientists are all honorable individuals that would always speak the truth there are a lot of incentives to not fess up to this and a lot of incentives of other scientists to downplay this theory.
shkkmo 5y ago
The US absolutely knew there were risks here. US diplomats knew that the lab had insufficient safety systems for the research that we already know was being done in Wuhan. Those diplomats explicitly warned the US of the dangers several years ago but the US did nothing. [0] If anything, the Wuhan lab needed more US funding that was primarily focused on safety. Edit: If you want to prevent certain types of dangerous research, simply cutting funding is a bad way to do it because it can reduce safety. Instead you need to use other diplomatic or legal tools that won't increase risk. [0] https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin-chaos-under-heaven-wuhan-lab-book-excerpt-474322 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin...
- ratsmack 5y ago
  Just throwing more money a any particular situation is no guarantee the situation will improve. In this case, the Wuhan lab is controlled by China and will conform to Chinese laws and regulations.
  - ikrenji 5y ago
    true, but also many problems can be solved by throwing more money at them
  - shkkmo 5y ago
    It's quite possible that there was a better response than more funding. Doing nothing does not seem to be it.

tomjen3 5y ago

As a minimum we would hopefully agree to a ban on GoF research for potentially dangerous pathogens. Secondly, we could find the scientist involved and charge him with 3 million 400 thousand counts of involuntary manslaughter, just to put this into perspective. That is more than some genocides, so it isn't that much of stretch for it to constitute crimes against humanity. Crimes against humanity generally have universal jurisdiction, so we could charge the people responsible in the Hague. I doubt we will ever see anybody defending themselves there, but it will cause the next person to think twice about this.

estaseuropano 5y ago

You miss that china also has internal politics. Not everything is about what the US/western countries think/do/want.

Lammy 5y ago
Everyone forgot about Hong Kong: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_Hong_Kong_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_Hong_Kong_pr...

wearywanderer 5y ago

It may change the cost/benefit analysis of viral research. If the risk of a lab escape is presently worse than the risk of a natural virus arising, then there are numerous things governments could do to remedy this. Even if a total research ban isn't warranted, it's probably a good idea to consider banning these labs in cities. The labs could be relocated to remote areas where workers are kept quarantined-by-default.

asciimov 5y ago

The far right will use this as a reason to curtail research. Maybe just curtail "dangerous" research at first. Then whatever other research they can convince their followers is also dangerous.

nfoz 5y ago
Why would you think that's just a "far right" thing? Actually I don't get what you're insinuating at all. Is anyone opposed to safety protocols?
- stevenhuang 5y ago
  It's in the nature of those who are politically inclined to try to view everything politically, and they often miss the mark. I just ignore them.

roca 5y ago

If you don't think the CCP handling of the case is suspect, why has Huang Yanling disappeared? If we knew SARS-CoV-2 was leaked from a lab, that would add a lot of weight to the calls for tighter restrictions on lab security and gain-of-function research, worldwide, that have been going on since before COVID. Sure, Chinese labs might go on doing whatever they want, but science is an international community. Scientists who break international norms aren't able to collaborate with other scientists or receive cross-border funding.

KirillPanov 5y ago

> What would any ... do about it if it was proven to be a lab leak? Exactly what was done when Chernobyl was proven to be caused by humans: show the world how reckless and callous the USSR's government really was. Chernobyl was a huge factor in the eventual collapse of the soviet government. They played a very risky game and it had existential consequences for the power structure that caused it.