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Even if you assume a conversion ratio of 20% for Cybertruck and F-150 reservation, Ford couldn't build that many EV trucks in 3 years. The idea that the Cybert

by nickik 5y ago

Even if you assume a conversion ratio of 20% for Cybertruck and F-150 reservation, Ford couldn't build that many EV trucks in 3 years. The idea that the Cybertruck who has 100ks of reservations and beats the F-150 on pretty much every technical metric will not sell well is just nonsense. > actually use as a truck So people who 'actually use' a truck don't want to drive long distance or transport a lot of cargo? Or charge fast if they do want to go long distances? People who want to go off-road don't want significant better clearing. People who have expensive tools or carry a lot of luggage don't want to make sure its not stolen? What's your objective measure other then the look of the Cybertruck are you applying here.

wearywanderer 5y ago
> What's your objective measure other then the look of the Cybertruck are you applying here. What is your objective basis for believing I have said anything about the appearance of cybertruck? My comment talks about availability of spare parts and third party repair. Tesla vehicles are notoriously poor in these regards. You seem to have read quite a lot that I did not write (Tesla fanboys seem to do this a lot.)
- nickik 5y ago
  I didn't imply that you said anything about the look, I mentioned it as any example of something that is objectively different. So you mentioned actual argument, repair parts availability. So you mention one thing and the declare the CB to be DOA. You must release how incredibly dumb that is right? How would you react if a Tesla fan said 'Cybertruck is faster to 60mph therefore the F-150 is DOA'. Its just disingenuous analysis purely driven by, I don't know, I assume you have some sort of dislike for Tesla. Tesla service is a actually a great experience for many people. The mobile service is amazing for anything that isn't a full crash. The Cybertruck design makes many typical repairs unnecessary. There are just fewer things that can break overall. In terms of battery and EV motor Tesla has 1000x more experience and have known high reliability and Ford just had to recall their last EV and had to delay another EV for 8 months. The truck market is 2.5 million in the US alone. EV trucks have significant advantages (including life cycle cost) and they will be production limited for years. To believe that in that environment the Cybertruck is DOA is just incredibly dumb.
  - rootusrootus 5y ago
    > I assume you have some sort of dislike for Tesla. This is a theme in your posts. You assume that everyone critical of Tesla's choices must be a hater. Just because you see Tesla as some sort of personal reflection doesn't mean the rest of us do.
    - nickik 5y ago
      I assume that because he makes a single not very good argument and then draws wide ranging conclusions from it that simply do not follow from his argument.
clintonb 5y ago
I only have anecdata. Brand loyalty is strong amongst truck drivers. Those who want the Lightning will either use their current F-150s a little longer or get another ICE/PHEV. Jumping ship for Tesla, even with the better specs, might not even be a consideration for some.
- nickik 5y ago
  It might not be consider by some but its 800k sales a year and that includes far more non hardcore Ford fans. Just like tons of people who are not hardcore Tesla fans drive Teslas. I'm not saying F-150 will not sell, I'm saying the people in this thread who use the unveil of the F-150 to shit on Tesla and the CB don't know what they are talking about.
gamblor956 5y ago
Ford's EV factory will have the capacity to make at least 1200 trucks/day, or more than 400k/year, with space to double the size of the facility. Once the factory begins production activities, demand will be the constraint on how fast they build Lightnings. People who go off-road absolutely want better clearance; it's one of the most popular aftermarket modifications made to off-road vehicles. On that front, the Cybertruck has relatively poor experience for a truck (but would for right in with a Subaru wagon). Unlike Tesla, Ford designed the Lightning with the actual input of the people who would use it, and it shows in all the small features that the Cybertruck is missing.
- nickik 5y ago
  Go calculated the battery need for these 400k/year and try to understand that industry. And Tesla is building a factory that is equally designed to build that many trucks and the vertically integrate it with a huge battery factory likely even cathode manufacturing and lithium hydroxide production. The last Ford CEO (not that long ago) still believed Ford didn't even need a battery partnership. And the new CEO has been scrambling like crazy to get a partnership and they want to build a plant but that is still quite far away. > Unlike Tesla, Ford designed the Lightning with the actual input of the people who would use it And you know that how? > People who go off-road absolutely want better clearance; it's one of the most popular aftermarket modifications made to off-road vehicles. On that front, the Cybertruck has relatively poor experience for a truck (but would for right in with a Subaru wagon). And that modification costs fair amount of money I would bet. The fact is the experience you get for the money is better. And comparing it to a Subaru wagon just tells me you are not actually serious, you just a hater.
  - rootusrootus 5y ago
    > you just a hater Just stop
  - gamblor956 5y ago
    Ford has quite wisely chosen to let the battery experts make the batteries for them, and is using scale to drive down the costs of their batteries below what Tesla can achieve through vertical integration. Moreover, by not competing with the battery makers, Ford can always choose the best battery available when it comes time to sign new contracts, and isn't stuck with whatever technology their CEO is promoting on Twitter. And the new CEO has been scrambling like crazy to get a partnership and they want to build a plant but that is still quite far away. Ford's EV truck facility is already complete and is in pre-production trials to iron out kinks in the manufacturing lines. It is scheduled to begin mass production by the end of the summer. And unlike Tesla, Ford hits its timelines. And you know that how? I'm part of the crowd of people who would use it. And I talk to people, online and off, in the hiking, trail running, mountain biking, and aquatics, and off-roading communities. The interest in the Lightning in these groups is huge. People even cancelled their orders for Subarus when the Lightning dropped. In contrast, the Cybertruck is viewed as a joke: a truck that can't be used for hauling, can't be used for work, and can't be used for any outdoor activities; in short, a truck that can't be used as a truck unless you think a truck just sits in a driveway or a parking spot. And that modification costs fair amount of money I would bet. The fact is the experience you get for the money is better. And comparing it to a Subaru wagon just tells me you are not actually serious, you just a hater. No, lifting a car is generally less than $1000. The fact is the experience you get for the money is better. A Tesla interior is about the same quality as a 90's era KIA. Or in other words, it's the worst in the industry at almost any price level. And yes, I have ridden in every model of Tesla, including the original hand-made Tesla Roadsters. And comparing it to a Subaru wagon just tells me you are not actually serious, you just a hater. You're right, I was being very unfair to Subaru. Their wagons (the Outback and Crosstrek) have superior off-road capabilities compared to the Model Y or the expected capabilities of the Cybertruck. And the Subarus have nicer interiors. And better range. And better warranties. And are easier to get repaired. And are way cheaper.

by nickik 5y ago

wearywanderer 5y ago

> What's your objective measure other then the look of the Cybertruck are you applying here. What is your objective basis for believing I have said anything about the appearance of cybertruck? My comment talks about availability of spare parts and third party repair. Tesla vehicles are notoriously poor in these regards. You seem to have read quite a lot that I did not write (Tesla fanboys seem to do this a lot.)

nickik 5y ago
I didn't imply that you said anything about the look, I mentioned it as any example of something that is objectively different. So you mentioned actual argument, repair parts availability. So you mention one thing and the declare the CB to be DOA. You must release how incredibly dumb that is right? How would you react if a Tesla fan said 'Cybertruck is faster to 60mph therefore the F-150 is DOA'. Its just disingenuous analysis purely driven by, I don't know, I assume you have some sort of dislike for Tesla. Tesla service is a actually a great experience for many people. The mobile service is amazing for anything that isn't a full crash. The Cybertruck design makes many typical repairs unnecessary. There are just fewer things that can break overall. In terms of battery and EV motor Tesla has 1000x more experience and have known high reliability and Ford just had to recall their last EV and had to delay another EV for 8 months. The truck market is 2.5 million in the US alone. EV trucks have significant advantages (including life cycle cost) and they will be production limited for years. To believe that in that environment the Cybertruck is DOA is just incredibly dumb.
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  > I assume you have some sort of dislike for Tesla. This is a theme in your posts. You assume that everyone critical of Tesla's choices must be a hater. Just because you see Tesla as some sort of personal reflection doesn't mean the rest of us do.
  - nickik 5y ago
    I assume that because he makes a single not very good argument and then draws wide ranging conclusions from it that simply do not follow from his argument.

clintonb 5y ago

I only have anecdata. Brand loyalty is strong amongst truck drivers. Those who want the Lightning will either use their current F-150s a little longer or get another ICE/PHEV. Jumping ship for Tesla, even with the better specs, might not even be a consideration for some.

nickik 5y ago
It might not be consider by some but its 800k sales a year and that includes far more non hardcore Ford fans. Just like tons of people who are not hardcore Tesla fans drive Teslas. I'm not saying F-150 will not sell, I'm saying the people in this thread who use the unveil of the F-150 to shit on Tesla and the CB don't know what they are talking about.

gamblor956 5y ago

Ford's EV factory will have the capacity to make at least 1200 trucks/day, or more than 400k/year, with space to double the size of the facility. Once the factory begins production activities, demand will be the constraint on how fast they build Lightnings. People who go off-road absolutely want better clearance; it's one of the most popular aftermarket modifications made to off-road vehicles. On that front, the Cybertruck has relatively poor experience for a truck (but would for right in with a Subaru wagon). Unlike Tesla, Ford designed the Lightning with the actual input of the people who would use it, and it shows in all the small features that the Cybertruck is missing.

nickik 5y ago
Go calculated the battery need for these 400k/year and try to understand that industry. And Tesla is building a factory that is equally designed to build that many trucks and the vertically integrate it with a huge battery factory likely even cathode manufacturing and lithium hydroxide production. The last Ford CEO (not that long ago) still believed Ford didn't even need a battery partnership. And the new CEO has been scrambling like crazy to get a partnership and they want to build a plant but that is still quite far away. > Unlike Tesla, Ford designed the Lightning with the actual input of the people who would use it And you know that how? > People who go off-road absolutely want better clearance; it's one of the most popular aftermarket modifications made to off-road vehicles. On that front, the Cybertruck has relatively poor experience for a truck (but would for right in with a Subaru wagon). And that modification costs fair amount of money I would bet. The fact is the experience you get for the money is better. And comparing it to a Subaru wagon just tells me you are not actually serious, you just a hater.
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  > you just a hater Just stop
- gamblor956 5y ago
  Ford has quite wisely chosen to let the battery experts make the batteries for them, and is using scale to drive down the costs of their batteries below what Tesla can achieve through vertical integration. Moreover, by not competing with the battery makers, Ford can always choose the best battery available when it comes time to sign new contracts, and isn't stuck with whatever technology their CEO is promoting on Twitter. And the new CEO has been scrambling like crazy to get a partnership and they want to build a plant but that is still quite far away. Ford's EV truck facility is already complete and is in pre-production trials to iron out kinks in the manufacturing lines. It is scheduled to begin mass production by the end of the summer. And unlike Tesla, Ford hits its timelines. And you know that how? I'm part of the crowd of people who would use it. And I talk to people, online and off, in the hiking, trail running, mountain biking, and aquatics, and off-roading communities. The interest in the Lightning in these groups is huge. People even cancelled their orders for Subarus when the Lightning dropped. In contrast, the Cybertruck is viewed as a joke: a truck that can't be used for hauling, can't be used for work, and can't be used for any outdoor activities; in short, a truck that can't be used as a truck unless you think a truck just sits in a driveway or a parking spot. And that modification costs fair amount of money I would bet. The fact is the experience you get for the money is better. And comparing it to a Subaru wagon just tells me you are not actually serious, you just a hater. No, lifting a car is generally less than $1000. The fact is the experience you get for the money is better. A Tesla interior is about the same quality as a 90's era KIA. Or in other words, it's the worst in the industry at almost any price level. And yes, I have ridden in every model of Tesla, including the original hand-made Tesla Roadsters. And comparing it to a Subaru wagon just tells me you are not actually serious, you just a hater. You're right, I was being very unfair to Subaru. Their wagons (the Outback and Crosstrek) have superior off-road capabilities compared to the Model Y or the expected capabilities of the Cybertruck. And the Subarus have nicer interiors. And better range. And better warranties. And are easier to get repaired. And are way cheaper.