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That meme is not backed up by the statistics. Childhood mortality has fallen all across the planet. For example in Somalia only 12% of children will die before

That meme is not backed up by the statistics. Childhood mortality has fallen all across the planet. For example in Somalia only 12% of children will die before age 5: https://knoema.com/atlas/Somalia/Child-mortality-rate#:~:text=Somalia%20%2D%20Under%2Dfive%20mortality%20rate&text=In%202019%2C%20child%20mortality%20rate,1%2C000%20live%20births%20in%202019 https://knoema.com/atlas/Somalia/Child-mortality-rate#:~:tex.... Thus for the average woman in Somalia with 6 children, statistically, none of her children will actually die. If childhood mortality was such a major issue, then the population would be stable - instead of doubling every two decades. Childhood mortality is also likely to be worsened by having multiple children, since it reduces the number of resources available per child.

jandrese 5y ago
5 is a bit too young for a child soldier. Gotta wait until they are 10. 5 is also too young to have kids. Also, that woman with 6 children has roughly a 50/50 chance of at least one of them dying before age 5.
Marsymars 5y ago
> Thus for the average woman in Somalia with 6 children, statistically, none of her children will actually die. If deaths are evenly distributed at 12%, there's a 54% (1-0.88^6) chance a woman will have at least one child die.
- wearywanderer 5y ago
  If a woman has 3 children at those odds, there is a 99.8% chance at least one child will live. If she has 4 children, it goes up to 99.997%. Having 6 children is clearly an overcompensation given this level of risk (99.9997% of one or more out of 6 living.)
JoeAltmaier 5y ago
It may be tangled up in the number of children. Spreading resources over more children may put them all further into that 12% category? Anyway it seems to be true that child mortality has dropped across the board. US child mortality used to be almost 50% (in 1800). Now its around 0.7%. Somalia is about where the US was in 1925. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1041693/united-states-all-time-child-mortality-rate/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1041693/united-states-al...

jandrese 5y ago

5 is a bit too young for a child soldier. Gotta wait until they are 10. 5 is also too young to have kids. Also, that woman with 6 children has roughly a 50/50 chance of at least one of them dying before age 5.

Marsymars 5y ago

> Thus for the average woman in Somalia with 6 children, statistically, none of her children will actually die. If deaths are evenly distributed at 12%, there's a 54% (1-0.88^6) chance a woman will have at least one child die.

wearywanderer 5y ago
If a woman has 3 children at those odds, there is a 99.8% chance at least one child will live. If she has 4 children, it goes up to 99.997%. Having 6 children is clearly an overcompensation given this level of risk (99.9997% of one or more out of 6 living.)

JoeAltmaier 5y ago

It may be tangled up in the number of children. Spreading resources over more children may put them all further into that 12% category? Anyway it seems to be true that child mortality has dropped across the board. US child mortality used to be almost 50% (in 1800). Now its around 0.7%. Somalia is about where the US was in 1925. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1041693/united-states-all-time-child-mortality-rate/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1041693/united-states-al...