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Give or take, that's the latest figure being tossed around. I believe the last second market buy-in was at a valuation of $87.5 billion, and that was in May (s

Give or take, that's the latest figure being tossed around. I believe the last second market buy-in was at a valuation of $87.5 billion, and that was in May (someone correct me if I'm wrong). Adding 10s of billions of implied market cap a quarter. The bubble knows no bounds. Interesting product, interesting stock. Regardless, does anyone else think this is going to go down as the biggest tech stock blunder in history? Can anything from 2000 touch this? It's madness, and infinitely intriguing.

nextparadigms 15y ago
Last one was $70 bn. It dropped from about $85 bn. Even $70 bn is way too much for Facebook. I think their valuation grew more like a Ponzi scheme. Everyone thought it was going to have a higher value, so they invested more in it and told others about it. I remember it grew a few tens of billions basically overnight with bit tech sites claiming "..and Facebook's value grew another $5 billion this week". I think its value will start dropping fast by the end of the year, especially now with Google+ gaining traction.
- esrauch 15y ago
  Google offered Groupon $6bn and they turned it down. Facebook is worth at least 10x as much as Groupon in my mind.
  - bad_user 15y ago
    Considering that Groupon is basically burning cash and that (until further evidence) their business model is unsustainable, I don't think that's a good example. People should really compare Facebook to Google. Google post-IPO was valued at a "bubbly" 27 billion in 2004. And take note that at that time Google already proved it had a viable business model; but people were still freaking out because Google only had one product, compared to what Microsoft or Yahoo had. Are you going to tell me that Facebook is worth three times as much as Google did in 2004?
    - qq66 15y ago
      It's challenging to compare an Internet company in 2011 to a freeze-frame of one in 2004. The better comparison is to Google today, which is worth $171B. Is Facebook worth 2/3 as much as Google? It certainly could be, since if it assaults Google head-on in an ad network, given certain other assumptions it could capture a huge market position.
      - nextparadigms 15y ago
        Facebook makes 4 billion in revenue. Google makes I think about 7x more. And from what I heard Facebook ads aren't very effective.
        qq66 15y ago
        I'm talking about an ad network. Like AdSense. They haven't done that yet, so revenue projections for what it would be are just guesswork.
    - esrauch 15y ago
      Groupon would never get a $6bn offer today, and to pretend like that is what I was proposing is absurd. Their market position and future prospects has significantly slipped from what it was. We can only speculate if that would have occurred had Google acquired them or if they would have managed it better. The exact same line of thinking that you are using would allow you to say "Here's a source that puts Myspace above Facebook (Alexa rankings from 2008), and most likely had higher ad revenue at that time. MySpace just sold for $35m so how can you say Facebook is worth even $100m?" Valuations of tech companies is largely based on future projections and the future projections of Groupon has shifted in the past 6 months just as significantly as MySpace did in the last 3 years.
  - nextparadigms 15y ago
    Exactly, and it just goes to show how over-valued companies are today. Isn't Groupon worth only $700 million now? It would've been stupid of Google to pay that much. LinkedIn is not worth 9 billion either.

nextparadigms 15y ago

Last one was $70 bn. It dropped from about $85 bn. Even $70 bn is way too much for Facebook. I think their valuation grew more like a Ponzi scheme. Everyone thought it was going to have a higher value, so they invested more in it and told others about it. I remember it grew a few tens of billions basically overnight with bit tech sites claiming "..and Facebook's value grew another $5 billion this week". I think its value will start dropping fast by the end of the year, especially now with Google+ gaining traction.

esrauch 15y ago
Google offered Groupon $6bn and they turned it down. Facebook is worth at least 10x as much as Groupon in my mind.
- bad_user 15y ago
  Considering that Groupon is basically burning cash and that (until further evidence) their business model is unsustainable, I don't think that's a good example. People should really compare Facebook to Google. Google post-IPO was valued at a "bubbly" 27 billion in 2004. And take note that at that time Google already proved it had a viable business model; but people were still freaking out because Google only had one product, compared to what Microsoft or Yahoo had. Are you going to tell me that Facebook is worth three times as much as Google did in 2004?
  - qq66 15y ago
    It's challenging to compare an Internet company in 2011 to a freeze-frame of one in 2004. The better comparison is to Google today, which is worth $171B. Is Facebook worth 2/3 as much as Google? It certainly could be, since if it assaults Google head-on in an ad network, given certain other assumptions it could capture a huge market position.
    - nextparadigms 15y ago
      Facebook makes 4 billion in revenue. Google makes I think about 7x more. And from what I heard Facebook ads aren't very effective.
      - qq66 15y ago
        I'm talking about an ad network. Like AdSense. They haven't done that yet, so revenue projections for what it would be are just guesswork.
  - esrauch 15y ago
    Groupon would never get a $6bn offer today, and to pretend like that is what I was proposing is absurd. Their market position and future prospects has significantly slipped from what it was. We can only speculate if that would have occurred had Google acquired them or if they would have managed it better. The exact same line of thinking that you are using would allow you to say "Here's a source that puts Myspace above Facebook (Alexa rankings from 2008), and most likely had higher ad revenue at that time. MySpace just sold for $35m so how can you say Facebook is worth even $100m?" Valuations of tech companies is largely based on future projections and the future projections of Groupon has shifted in the past 6 months just as significantly as MySpace did in the last 3 years.
- nextparadigms 15y ago
  Exactly, and it just goes to show how over-valued companies are today. Isn't Groupon worth only $700 million now? It would've been stupid of Google to pay that much. LinkedIn is not worth 9 billion either.