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Bucharest... Romania in general, has to play a difficult diplomatic game. The only source of the stability in the region comes from Bucharest. Look at its neigh

Bucharest... Romania in general, has to play a difficult diplomatic game. The only source of the stability in the region comes from Bucharest. Look at its neighbours: Moldova, who was part of the Eastern bloc, has strong tendencies towards EU and RO, Romania is even offering them citizenship, to literally everyone that applies for one. Moldova has a region called Transnistria which is the equivalent of Ukrainian Donbass. It's a ticking bomb. Ukraine, is literally divided, in the sense that their politicians don't have a clear direction. Romania and the EU still do not know if they are on the course to join the EU. Last time, Ukraine took the Russian and Romanian curriculum out of the schools. Let's not forget that Ukraine has pretty significant Romanian and Russian minorities. What kind of signal does this send? You don't even know what they are on about. Is that the start of a fierce nationalism promoting isolationism? Serbia, another Romanian neighbor, they have affinities with Russia due to their shared Slavic heritage, which is perfectly fine. But they also don't give any indication of anything. What are your plans? Do you see yourself as an EU member? Is there any anti-corruption fight going on? The only close neighbor to Romania is Hungary because of their shared European values. But even Hungary has problems with JOBBIK and Fidesz. Bulgaria comes second. I can say that Romania is already living the new Cold War, it's right at the core. Without EU and NATO, today Transylvania, Moldavia and Wallachia wouldn't have been a unitary body of democractic values called Romania. You can't sanction Belarus through brute force. You can't take on Russia without repercussions. Looks at this game between the embassies: Romania kicks out 1 Russian embassy official: https://www.dw.com/en/romania-kicks-out-russian-embassy-official/a-57336736 https://www.dw.com/en/romania-kicks-out-russian-embassy-offi... Russia kicks out 1 Romanian embassy official: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/05/11/russia-expels-romanian-diplomat-in-reciprocal-move-a73857 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/05/11/russia-expels-roma...

vasac 5y ago
Frankly, we (Serbia) have been told very clearly that we won't become member anytime soon as EU has first to solve some internal issues. Add to that that our politicians don't have any real desire to actually join and the end result is that everyone is just paying a lip service about joining. In a country where prospect of joining never had strong support in general population (except in a sense that we would join only for money) even euro-enthusiasts figured out that joining isn't going to happen in short/mid term. On the other side, our links to Russia in west media are pictured as much stronger than they really are. Culturally we are more western oriented and Russia is able do capitalize mostly on resentment regarding wars in '90. That won't disappear anytime soon but that's something where Russia plays only secondary role. In the end Romania has no reasons to be on alert regarding Serbia (there was never a war between two countries, quite rare here), and minority issues aren't significant.
- johnnycerberus 5y ago
  Offtopic, my grandfather was Serbian, he came from Vojvodina. Thanks for describing what happens in Serbia from a Serbian point of view. Our media describes Serbia as being one of the countries that is a candidate to the EU but with no clear direction from the politic class. Indeed, Romania doesn't have to be on alert, just that this incertitude about the future of our region contributes to many missed opportunities, it also affects how infrastructure develops. For example, almost 90% of the investments in highways are the ones that link Romania with Hungary (literally the West), ignoring other borders that could have been useful to develop economic ties.
baybal2 5y ago
> Bucharest... Romania in general, has to play a difficult diplomatic game. The only source of the stability in the region comes from Bucharest. Look at its neighbours: > Moldova, who was part of the Eastern bloc, has strong tendencies towards EU and RO, Romania is even offering them citizenship, to literally everyone that applies for one. Moldova has a region called Transnistria which is the equivalent of Ukrainian Donbass. It's a ticking bomb. Transnistria is not an issue really. With modern Western weapons, both Moldova, and Romania can contain it with a single division. > I can say that Romania is already living the new Cold War, it's right at the core. Without EU and NATO, today Transylvania, Moldavia and Wallachia wouldn't have been a unitary body of democractic values called Romania. Romania, with all its flaws, still has a functioning military, ministry of interior, mostly stuffed with pro-nationalist cadres. The chance of Russia pulling Crimea on it is low. They will not have the same ease to bribe half of the general staff as they did in Ukraine.
- kergonath 5y ago
  > Transnistria is not an issue really. With modern Western weapons, both Moldova, and Romania can contain it with a single division. This would be an issue as big as Putin would want to make it. He would not have any qualm sending some troops there if it could further destabilise Europe. > Romania, with all its flaws, still has a functioning military, ministry of interior, mostly stuffed with pro-nationalist cadres. The chance of Russia pulling Crimea on it is low. They will not have the same ease to bribe half of the general staff as they did in Ukraine. Thankfully.
  - baybal2 5y ago
    > This would be an issue as big as Putin would want to make it. He would not have any qualm sending some troops there if it could further destabilise Europe. And... bad for him! He should be let doing his destabilising as much as he wants, as long as he is wasting his armies, and it is 2:1 for NATO. The current Western discourse about possible confrontation with Russia is too sentimental, and not guided by ground truths. Few things what pundits say make sense military wise about the current situation in Europe. As I said before, the truth of few centuries of military history is unequivocal: it is a very good thing to trip your opponent into a big war for a small gain, while your main force can stay back, and preserve its power.

vasac 5y ago

Frankly, we (Serbia) have been told very clearly that we won't become member anytime soon as EU has first to solve some internal issues. Add to that that our politicians don't have any real desire to actually join and the end result is that everyone is just paying a lip service about joining. In a country where prospect of joining never had strong support in general population (except in a sense that we would join only for money) even euro-enthusiasts figured out that joining isn't going to happen in short/mid term. On the other side, our links to Russia in west media are pictured as much stronger than they really are. Culturally we are more western oriented and Russia is able do capitalize mostly on resentment regarding wars in '90. That won't disappear anytime soon but that's something where Russia plays only secondary role. In the end Romania has no reasons to be on alert regarding Serbia (there was never a war between two countries, quite rare here), and minority issues aren't significant.

johnnycerberus 5y ago
Offtopic, my grandfather was Serbian, he came from Vojvodina. Thanks for describing what happens in Serbia from a Serbian point of view. Our media describes Serbia as being one of the countries that is a candidate to the EU but with no clear direction from the politic class. Indeed, Romania doesn't have to be on alert, just that this incertitude about the future of our region contributes to many missed opportunities, it also affects how infrastructure develops. For example, almost 90% of the investments in highways are the ones that link Romania with Hungary (literally the West), ignoring other borders that could have been useful to develop economic ties.

baybal2 5y ago

> Bucharest... Romania in general, has to play a difficult diplomatic game. The only source of the stability in the region comes from Bucharest. Look at its neighbours: > Moldova, who was part of the Eastern bloc, has strong tendencies towards EU and RO, Romania is even offering them citizenship, to literally everyone that applies for one. Moldova has a region called Transnistria which is the equivalent of Ukrainian Donbass. It's a ticking bomb. Transnistria is not an issue really. With modern Western weapons, both Moldova, and Romania can contain it with a single division. > I can say that Romania is already living the new Cold War, it's right at the core. Without EU and NATO, today Transylvania, Moldavia and Wallachia wouldn't have been a unitary body of democractic values called Romania. Romania, with all its flaws, still has a functioning military, ministry of interior, mostly stuffed with pro-nationalist cadres. The chance of Russia pulling Crimea on it is low. They will not have the same ease to bribe half of the general staff as they did in Ukraine.

kergonath 5y ago
> Transnistria is not an issue really. With modern Western weapons, both Moldova, and Romania can contain it with a single division. This would be an issue as big as Putin would want to make it. He would not have any qualm sending some troops there if it could further destabilise Europe. > Romania, with all its flaws, still has a functioning military, ministry of interior, mostly stuffed with pro-nationalist cadres. The chance of Russia pulling Crimea on it is low. They will not have the same ease to bribe half of the general staff as they did in Ukraine. Thankfully.
- baybal2 5y ago
  > This would be an issue as big as Putin would want to make it. He would not have any qualm sending some troops there if it could further destabilise Europe. And... bad for him! He should be let doing his destabilising as much as he wants, as long as he is wasting his armies, and it is 2:1 for NATO. The current Western discourse about possible confrontation with Russia is too sentimental, and not guided by ground truths. Few things what pundits say make sense military wise about the current situation in Europe. As I said before, the truth of few centuries of military history is unequivocal: it is a very good thing to trip your opponent into a big war for a small gain, while your main force can stay back, and preserve its power.