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Weird, inappropriate wording. "Satellites taking measurements may have underestimated"? What's actually been happening is that satellites take measurements, and

Weird, inappropriate wording. "Satellites taking measurements may have underestimated"? What's actually been happening is that satellites take measurements, and then all but a few climate models (around 100, IIRC) run way too hot, i.e., hotter than the actual measurements. It's the models that are estimating, and they're wrong compared to the actual measurements, which are not estimates. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-8Nws5wfG0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-8Nws5wfG0

threeseed 5y ago
From the article: "But our analysis reveals that several observational datasets — particularly those with the smallest values of ocean surface warming and tropospheric warming — appear to be at odds with other, independently measured complementary variables (e.g. tropical temperature and moisture)" Which suggests that unless all of the physics is wrong there could be anomalies in either the satellites or the ways its data is processed.
gmueckl 5y ago
I don't have access to the full paper, but my reading of the abstract is (in short) that satellite measurements of independent quantities have ratios that are only (sort of) reproduced by models that show a higher warming. This leaves two possibilities: the models are wrong or the measurements are off.
acqq 5y ago
The youtube link is to Roy Spencer, the same one who claims "I came to the realization that intelligent design, as a theory of origins, is no more religious, and no less scientific, than evolutionism." Really? In the video, speaking for "Heartland Institute" a think tank previously also denying that smoking causes cancer. https://skepticalscience.com/Roy_Spencer_arg.htm https://skepticalscience.com/Roy_Spencer_arg.htm Denying global warming at least since 1997, using anything he finds most convenient at the moment.
- wcoenen 5y ago
  He's also a signatory to "An Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming". Which basically claims there can't be a problem with the Earth's climate, because it was designed by God for humans to thrive. https://cornwallalliance.org/2009/05/evangelical-declaration-on-global-warming/ https://cornwallalliance.org/2009/05/evangelical-declaration...
- zackees 5y ago
  Evolution as the origin of all life has major problems. For example many animals in the fossil records have no ancestor. They just suddenly appear. Also genes appear in the human genome that don’t have any good explanation. For example the Rh- bloodline should be impossible given that no other primate has it and the devastation it brings to mother mismatched with their offspring during gestation. The idea that ancient astronauts visited earth, modified genetics and then left has become much more plausible given that the government is admitting they lied about the existence of aliens. So the whole “intelligent design is a religion” no longer is accurate. It’s actually a very plausible hypothesis that matches many data points and should be taken seriously.
bregma 5y ago
The point of the paper is that the satellite data may be being misinterpreted. Satellites do not measure sea surface or tropospheric air temperatures. They measure some voltage variations from sensors that are affected by various frequencies of electromagnetic radiation and, when integrated with location and orientation data, generate a data product that needs interpretation by experts in a way that may or may not correlate with actual sea surface or tropospheric temperature. The article is pointing at some inconsistencies in some, but not all, satellite data products. It's not quite saying "if the observations do not fit the theory, the observations are wrong" so much as "if the interpretation of the observations do not fit the theory, the interpretation of the observations may be wrong".

threeseed 5y ago

From the article: "But our analysis reveals that several observational datasets — particularly those with the smallest values of ocean surface warming and tropospheric warming — appear to be at odds with other, independently measured complementary variables (e.g. tropical temperature and moisture)" Which suggests that unless all of the physics is wrong there could be anomalies in either the satellites or the ways its data is processed.

gmueckl 5y ago

I don't have access to the full paper, but my reading of the abstract is (in short) that satellite measurements of independent quantities have ratios that are only (sort of) reproduced by models that show a higher warming. This leaves two possibilities: the models are wrong or the measurements are off.

acqq 5y ago

The youtube link is to Roy Spencer, the same one who claims "I came to the realization that intelligent design, as a theory of origins, is no more religious, and no less scientific, than evolutionism." Really? In the video, speaking for "Heartland Institute" a think tank previously also denying that smoking causes cancer. https://skepticalscience.com/Roy_Spencer_arg.htm https://skepticalscience.com/Roy_Spencer_arg.htm Denying global warming at least since 1997, using anything he finds most convenient at the moment.

wcoenen 5y ago
He's also a signatory to "An Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming". Which basically claims there can't be a problem with the Earth's climate, because it was designed by God for humans to thrive. https://cornwallalliance.org/2009/05/evangelical-declaration-on-global-warming/ https://cornwallalliance.org/2009/05/evangelical-declaration...
zackees 5y ago
Evolution as the origin of all life has major problems. For example many animals in the fossil records have no ancestor. They just suddenly appear. Also genes appear in the human genome that don’t have any good explanation. For example the Rh- bloodline should be impossible given that no other primate has it and the devastation it brings to mother mismatched with their offspring during gestation. The idea that ancient astronauts visited earth, modified genetics and then left has become much more plausible given that the government is admitting they lied about the existence of aliens. So the whole “intelligent design is a religion” no longer is accurate. It’s actually a very plausible hypothesis that matches many data points and should be taken seriously.

bregma 5y ago

The point of the paper is that the satellite data may be being misinterpreted. Satellites do not measure sea surface or tropospheric air temperatures. They measure some voltage variations from sensors that are affected by various frequencies of electromagnetic radiation and, when integrated with location and orientation data, generate a data product that needs interpretation by experts in a way that may or may not correlate with actual sea surface or tropospheric temperature. The article is pointing at some inconsistencies in some, but not all, satellite data products. It's not quite saying "if the observations do not fit the theory, the observations are wrong" so much as "if the interpretation of the observations do not fit the theory, the interpretation of the observations may be wrong".