3 ms·

None of the articles support a narrative that there is an epidemic of vacancies among high-end housing. Vancouver: The article claims that there is ~5% vacancy

None of the articles support a narrative that there is an epidemic of vacancies among high-end housing. Vancouver: The article claims that there is ~5% vacancy rate. This is actually below the normal rate for vacancies in the US. Condos have a higher vacancy rate, but the article offers a reasonable explanation. Manhattan: Ultra-luxury home vacancies aren't the same as luxury apartment buildings. Most people are not buying $5-$10 million condos. And even if the buildings are unsold, they aren't necessarily unoccupied. Seattle: Again focuses on "foreign investors" and unsold apartments. No concrete data on how many those apartments are actually empty. Melbourne: > Prosper Australia project director Karl Fitzgerald said, based on the water data, Melbourne's actual vacancy rate was closer to 7 per cent. 7% is on the high-end of vacancy rates, but if you reduced that down to 5% then the effect on prices would still be low. Boston: No data on vacancy rates. Again, sale != occupancy. There are plenty of property management companies that build out luxury apartment buildings and directly rent to people. The real issue is lack of housing, which can be fixed by letting developers build more housing, including high-end housing.

sp332 5y ago
Vancouver: "condominiums that are owned and not available for rent had a whopping 12.5 per cent vacancy rate" The Manhattan article links to https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/realestate/new-york-decade-real-estate.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/realestate/new-york-decad... which says "Nearly half of new condo units in Manhattan that came to market after 2015... remain unsold, according to a December analysis of both closed sales and contracts" and "7,050 new condo units available for sale in Manhattan in January [2020]" Melbourne: "Docklands... 17 per cent consuming no water in 2013" and "12.4 per cent of Cardinia and Clyde homes reported no water use." Boston: "12 of Boston’s newest and biggest luxury developments could remain largely empty despite having sold most of their available condo units to buyers."
- tylerhou 5y ago
  Vancouver: "City housing planner Matthew Bourke said there doesn't appear to be a correlation between empty homes and housing prices, given that the vacancy rate remained flat while prices skyrocketed.... Bourke told council that about 70 per cent of single-family homes marked as vacant in 2014 were found to be waiting for a renovation permit." 12.5 * 0.7 = 3.75% (this can't be directly compared to other vacancy numbers, though). Manhattan: Unsold != unoccupied. Melbourne: Now we're cherrypicking districts that have less than 15,000 residents total in a city of 5 million in one specific year? This is essentially p-hacking to support a non-existent narrative. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardinia,_Victoria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardinia,_Victoria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clyde,_Victoria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clyde,_Victoria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Docklands,_Victoria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Docklands,_Victoria Boston: "could remain largely empty." This is speculation. Where is the data?
  - sp332 5y ago
    "Came to market" clearly means they were not renting directly.

sp332 5y ago

Vancouver: "condominiums that are owned and not available for rent had a whopping 12.5 per cent vacancy rate" The Manhattan article links to https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/realestate/new-york-decade-real-estate.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/realestate/new-york-decad... which says "Nearly half of new condo units in Manhattan that came to market after 2015... remain unsold, according to a December analysis of both closed sales and contracts" and "7,050 new condo units available for sale in Manhattan in January [2020]" Melbourne: "Docklands... 17 per cent consuming no water in 2013" and "12.4 per cent of Cardinia and Clyde homes reported no water use." Boston: "12 of Boston’s newest and biggest luxury developments could remain largely empty despite having sold most of their available condo units to buyers."

tylerhou 5y ago
Vancouver: "City housing planner Matthew Bourke said there doesn't appear to be a correlation between empty homes and housing prices, given that the vacancy rate remained flat while prices skyrocketed.... Bourke told council that about 70 per cent of single-family homes marked as vacant in 2014 were found to be waiting for a renovation permit." 12.5 * 0.7 = 3.75% (this can't be directly compared to other vacancy numbers, though). Manhattan: Unsold != unoccupied. Melbourne: Now we're cherrypicking districts that have less than 15,000 residents total in a city of 5 million in one specific year? This is essentially p-hacking to support a non-existent narrative. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardinia,_Victoria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardinia,_Victoria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clyde,_Victoria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clyde,_Victoria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Docklands,_Victoria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Docklands,_Victoria Boston: "could remain largely empty." This is speculation. Where is the data?
- sp332 5y ago
  "Came to market" clearly means they were not renting directly.