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> Cars? Who cares, that's not what Shell sells. The only reason Shell truly exists is because all of those gas tanks. >And it's even possible to build cars th

> Cars? Who cares, that's not what Shell sells. The only reason Shell truly exists is because all of those gas tanks. >And it's even possible to build cars that don't depend on carbon emissions, Sure, really only in the past 5-8 years. ( what about those Tesla stations ran by diesel generators? ) >Renewables are cheaper than natural gas right now, and by the time we need massive amounts of storage, renewables plus lithium ion batteries will be cheaper than combined cycle gas turbines. Every time, I mean every time this threshold is crossed the cost of fossil fuels plummets way below the threshold. 1.4 billion cars are on the road a little over 1 million are electric in any way. I don't see how this is the gas companies fault. They have provided a product to 1.4 billion gas tanks ( a lot of those weekly ) on a consistently reliable basis. If there is ever a threat of a shortage people start lining up for miles to buy the product Shell is 'forcing' them to buy? Perhaps we need to hold the gas tank companies responsible for making a product that holds fuel. This is a culture and economy problem not the fault of a fuel company. Our entire economy is dependent on fossil fuel. PS. It would be nice if you provided at least on reference for the last two paragraphs of your post. Way too many claims with no resources.

epistasis 5y ago
Two apologies are in order 1) I disagree with a lot of your comment but don't really know how to proceed productively, and 2) for not providing any sources, as I've come to think of these things as common knowledge the past few years. A link dump is never convincing, but in case you find my thinking so strange that you're intrigued how I got to where I am, here's some of the key bits of info: 1) Ramez Naam's summary of solar/storage costs (2020) -- He's a science fiction author, but has really brought together the best resources. Academic and industry energy models use old cost estimates for renewables and it gets them into huge problems. Naam's estimates have been far too conservative, but at least they've been less conservative than the pros' estimates: https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/ https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-c... 2) Lazard's levelized cost of storage/energy (2020, comes out annually) -- best free estimates of costs, IMHO. (note that the LCOE doesn't take into account the price of dispatchability, but storage fixes that) 3) RMI's analysis of stranded natural gas plants (2019) -- a bit dated, but shocked people when it came out, and even most utility IRPs don't consider this possibility yet, which means utility customers are going to get bilked for billions of dollars https://rmi.org/a-bridge-backward-the-risky-economics-of-new-natural-gas-infrastructure-in-the-united-states/ https://rmi.org/a-bridge-backward-the-risky-economics-of-new... 4) RMI's analysis of low NG deployments and high storage, solar, and wind deployments in open markets (2020) -- a follow on to the prior year's analysis, documenting that the open market realizes that new natural gas will likely become a stranded asset. Regulated utilities generally bear no risk of competition, so only regulatory bodies can reign in the bad economic decisions of utilities that are still deploying natural gas. https://rmi.org/clean-energy-is-canceling-gas-plants/ https://rmi.org/clean-energy-is-canceling-gas-plants/ 5) The IEA's recently released global energy transition pathway to keep to 1.5C of warming (2021) -- The IEA has been hopelessly wrong about our energy path, and they are here too, IMHO, estimating absolutely ridiculous hydrogen production capacity by 2030 (3TW!), and far too low renewables and storage. But even the IEA is now plotting a pathway with a very quick transition away from any fossil fuel that doesn't have it's CO2 emissions captured https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/05/all-fossil-fuel-exploration-needs-to-end-this-year-iea-says/ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/05/all-fossil-fuel-...
- kokanator 5y ago
  Just so it doesn't go without mentioning. Thank you for the references.

epistasis 5y ago

Two apologies are in order 1) I disagree with a lot of your comment but don't really know how to proceed productively, and 2) for not providing any sources, as I've come to think of these things as common knowledge the past few years. A link dump is never convincing, but in case you find my thinking so strange that you're intrigued how I got to where I am, here's some of the key bits of info: 1) Ramez Naam's summary of solar/storage costs (2020) -- He's a science fiction author, but has really brought together the best resources. Academic and industry energy models use old cost estimates for renewables and it gets them into huge problems. Naam's estimates have been far too conservative, but at least they've been less conservative than the pros' estimates: https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/ https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-c... 2) Lazard's levelized cost of storage/energy (2020, comes out annually) -- best free estimates of costs, IMHO. (note that the LCOE doesn't take into account the price of dispatchability, but storage fixes that) 3) RMI's analysis of stranded natural gas plants (2019) -- a bit dated, but shocked people when it came out, and even most utility IRPs don't consider this possibility yet, which means utility customers are going to get bilked for billions of dollars https://rmi.org/a-bridge-backward-the-risky-economics-of-new-natural-gas-infrastructure-in-the-united-states/ https://rmi.org/a-bridge-backward-the-risky-economics-of-new... 4) RMI's analysis of low NG deployments and high storage, solar, and wind deployments in open markets (2020) -- a follow on to the prior year's analysis, documenting that the open market realizes that new natural gas will likely become a stranded asset. Regulated utilities generally bear no risk of competition, so only regulatory bodies can reign in the bad economic decisions of utilities that are still deploying natural gas. https://rmi.org/clean-energy-is-canceling-gas-plants/ https://rmi.org/clean-energy-is-canceling-gas-plants/ 5) The IEA's recently released global energy transition pathway to keep to 1.5C of warming (2021) -- The IEA has been hopelessly wrong about our energy path, and they are here too, IMHO, estimating absolutely ridiculous hydrogen production capacity by 2030 (3TW!), and far too low renewables and storage. But even the IEA is now plotting a pathway with a very quick transition away from any fossil fuel that doesn't have it's CO2 emissions captured https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/05/all-fossil-fuel-exploration-needs-to-end-this-year-iea-says/ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/05/all-fossil-fuel-...

kokanator 5y ago
Just so it doesn't go without mentioning. Thank you for the references.