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Letting all the schoolkids and leafy surrey familes off on their ski holidays to Italy in Feb half term (15th-23rd) was probably one early bad decision, how muc
by iso1631 5y ago
Letting all the schoolkids and leafy surrey familes off on their ski holidays to Italy in Feb half term (15th-23rd) was probably one early bad decision, how much different that would have made in the mid term, but closing borders was never on the cards for any country - closing heathrow was unthinkable even in mid March.
New Zealand borders closed on 19 March 2020. Based on deaths and IFR at that time, there were likely 150,000 new cases a day in the UK on 19th March. Closing borders then wasn't going to stop the spread.
Maybe a strict lockdown after the Feb half term and a total closure of all borders - including lorry drivers, could have worked.
Would it be worth it? The age-standardised mortality rate for the UK in 2020 was 1,043.50 per 100k, the highest since....
2008, when it was 1,091.90 per 100k. That wasn't an anomoly either - every year from 1990 to 2008 was higher. Even ignoring ages, the crude mortality rate per 100k was higher for every year before 2003.