3 ms·
I haven't gone through the data myself, and maybe someone else already mentioned this, but I am not sure whether "excess deaths" takes into account lifespan. It
by jimmygrapes 5y ago
I haven't gone through the data myself, and maybe someone else already mentioned this, but I am not sure whether "excess deaths" takes into account lifespan. It has been roughly 70 to 80 years since "baby boomers" were born; based on common lifespans, wouldn't it be expected to have a "death boom" around this time?
- skybrian 5y agoYou can estimate gradual changes like that by looking at a long-term graph. Here's a graph from before the pandemic, including a (now out of date) projection: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/deat... (Note that the slope looks exaggerated because the baseline isn't zero.)
- Cogito 5y agoThe general way to do that correction is to look at actuarial tables for deaths by cohort. These models are obviously not 100% accurate, but they do take into account many factors, and are incentivised to be as accurate as possible as they determine the profitavility of life insurance. In this context, excess deaths are variations from these tables - more people from a cohort dying in a certain time period than expected.