4 ms·

I wonder if they mean like the thing like what people say about DST causing deaths. But if you look on the large scale that blip does not exist. Standupmaths

I wonder if they mean like the thing like what people say about DST causing deaths. But if you look on the large scale that blip does not exist. Standupmaths did a segment on it a few years ago. Basically the idea was 'yes you were going to die, and DST seemed to make it happen' but it seemed to only make it happen a few days sooner than it normally would have. Maybe that is what they are talking about? I personally know a couple of people who were marked as dying from covid. But the reality was they were going to die very soon. They both had very advanced stages of Alzheimer's.

froh 5y ago
as long as it's very.clear that the age distribution of surplus mortality in times of covid is heavily drawing from other than Alzheimer's dead-soon-anyhow; as long as it's very clear that covid-19 kills otherwise healthy diabetics, overweights, heart patients, cant-afford-healthcare people, was-misguided-about-indoor-events people, multiple sclerosis patients, the list goes on, and on and on, .... as long as that is crystal clear, that "two old dead soon anyhow Alzheimer's patients" completely misrepresent the 500.000+ dead US citizens... ... such an anecdote is perfectly fine ...
CrazyStat 5y ago
There have been a number of studies (e.g. [1], [2], [3]) published estimating how many years of life have been lost to COVID-19. The estimates vary between ~10-15 average years lost per COVID death. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3 [2] https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201021/More-than-25-million-person-years-of-life-lost-in-US-due-to-COVID-19.aspx https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201021/More-than-25-mill... [3] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200923124557.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200923124557.h...
- froh 5y ago
  thank you for these! two us centric and one global, same results! I can't resist: males of america! you are the the victims, the "loss leaders" of the plague: > We find that over 20.5 million years of life have been lost to COVID-19 globally. As of January 6, 2021, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2–9 times the average seasonal influenza; three quarters of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and almost a third from deaths below 55; and men have lost 45% more life years than women. let that sink in: > men have lost 45% more life years than women. mask up! vaccine up! and don't let them mn-killers tell you otherwise. /scnr
- iamcreasy 5y ago
  [Sorry for posting here. The other thread was flagged and subsequently closed] Can you suggest me an advanced Bayesian Statistics book that focuses on application without sacrificing too much mathematical rigor? I am graduating in MS in Stat. I've took a Bayesian Stat course that followed Statistical Rethinking by Richard McElreath. I liked this book because the author appeals to intuition instead of mathematical rigor. I took 2 semester long statistical inference course, so I am ready for some advance material.
  - CrazyStat 5y ago
    Bayesian Data Analysis by Gelman et al. There's a free PDF available on Gelman's website [1]. Definitely application-focused, and the authors are a who's-who of contemporary Bayesian statisticians. [1] http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/ http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/
    - iamcreasy 5y ago
      Thanks! I'll check it out.
aschatten 5y ago
If this model works as expected, then it should take into account those who "would have die very soon" otherwise. It models the deaths that would have happened if it were not for COVID and measures the difference against that number. So the person you mentioned should be counted in the projection.

froh 5y ago

as long as it's very.clear that the age distribution of surplus mortality in times of covid is heavily drawing from other than Alzheimer's dead-soon-anyhow; as long as it's very clear that covid-19 kills otherwise healthy diabetics, overweights, heart patients, cant-afford-healthcare people, was-misguided-about-indoor-events people, multiple sclerosis patients, the list goes on, and on and on, .... as long as that is crystal clear, that "two old dead soon anyhow Alzheimer's patients" completely misrepresent the 500.000+ dead US citizens... ... such an anecdote is perfectly fine ...

CrazyStat 5y ago

There have been a number of studies (e.g. [1], [2], [3]) published estimating how many years of life have been lost to COVID-19. The estimates vary between ~10-15 average years lost per COVID death. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3 [2] https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201021/More-than-25-million-person-years-of-life-lost-in-US-due-to-COVID-19.aspx https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201021/More-than-25-mill... [3] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200923124557.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200923124557.h...

froh 5y ago
thank you for these! two us centric and one global, same results! I can't resist: males of america! you are the the victims, the "loss leaders" of the plague: > We find that over 20.5 million years of life have been lost to COVID-19 globally. As of January 6, 2021, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2–9 times the average seasonal influenza; three quarters of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and almost a third from deaths below 55; and men have lost 45% more life years than women. let that sink in: > men have lost 45% more life years than women. mask up! vaccine up! and don't let them mn-killers tell you otherwise. /scnr
iamcreasy 5y ago
[Sorry for posting here. The other thread was flagged and subsequently closed] Can you suggest me an advanced Bayesian Statistics book that focuses on application without sacrificing too much mathematical rigor? I am graduating in MS in Stat. I've took a Bayesian Stat course that followed Statistical Rethinking by Richard McElreath. I liked this book because the author appeals to intuition instead of mathematical rigor. I took 2 semester long statistical inference course, so I am ready for some advance material.
- CrazyStat 5y ago
  Bayesian Data Analysis by Gelman et al. There's a free PDF available on Gelman's website [1]. Definitely application-focused, and the authors are a who's-who of contemporary Bayesian statisticians. [1] http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/ http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/
  - iamcreasy 5y ago
    Thanks! I'll check it out.

aschatten 5y ago

If this model works as expected, then it should take into account those who "would have die very soon" otherwise. It models the deaths that would have happened if it were not for COVID and measures the difference against that number. So the person you mentioned should be counted in the projection.