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Actually the one sweating should be Russia, because on the long haul (10-20 years), Germany is going to be energy independent due to massive investments (also s

by 5ersi 5y ago

Actually the one sweating should be Russia, because on the long haul (10-20 years), Germany is going to be energy independent due to massive investments (also subsidies) into renewable energy. Most of the countries that largely depend on oil/gas exports (Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc..) are going to be facing a major socioeconomic crises in the next decades.

newdude116 5y ago
"Actually the one sweating should be Russia, because on the long haul (10-20 years), Germany is going to be energy independent due to massive investments (also subsidies) into renewable energy." ROTFL Edit: Yes, please feel free to show your ignorance and lack of basic math skills and downvote this comment. For all others: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ I am sure Russia is not scared. Who should be scared is the world and who is scared is me but such dumb comments.
- Hikikomori 5y ago
  Interesting and fun read, but don't see how it relates to the near future, and even longer term. Energy demands likely closely follows population growth, which has been trending down for the last 50 years or so. Once it levels out so will energy demands, with some time lag as some countries catches up with standard of living. Unless your argument is that we will be unable to meet our energy demands at that point in time even with large amounts of renewables and nuclear I don't really see your point, even so Germany can likely meet their demands using renewables in the near future and go back to using nuclear at some later point in time.
  - newdude116 5y ago
    Besides, that Germany is extremely bad suited for re-newable energies (little sun, wind at the wrong places, little hydroelectric power): 1. Yes, population growth may stop 2. Your argument with population numbers is totally irrelevant. Economics growth, which is linked to energy consumption, won't stop. If is stops, our society will likely collapse. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-state-economy-except-at-a-very-basic-level/ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-sta... In fact, with injecting trillions of dollars in the economy and negative interest rates, we may already have reached the end game. Exactly at the time from predicted by the Club of Rome, I think they predicted trouble for around 2030.
    - jiofih 5y ago
      So after your random-blog-post defense failed, you’re gonna completely drop the subject? I’d love to hear a proper response to the parent. Germany already produces enough renewable energy to sustain all residential use. There is no real physical limitation to achieving 100% renewables despite your “argument”. These are both very shallow articles. You need to find better sources if you’re gonna spout such claims, big words have no meaning of their own.
      - newdude116 5y ago
        "So after your random-blog-post defense failed" I don't see this. The original post was just extraordinary naive. "Germany already produces enough renewable energy to sustain all residential use." Maybe, a short look at the numbers look inconclusive. Besides that Germany relies on its neighbors to stabilize the net (speak nuclear!), it is unclear for me what the numbers mean. "Residential" use. Including heating? Basically everybody heats with oil or gas in Germany. You would also to take into account production costs (energy) of solar and wind energy harvesting systems. Please also see: "The institute’s Energy Charts project does not include data on the amount of power the generating facilities consume themselves to operate, or the power German industry produces and consumes without it being fed into the public grid." The is an incredibly stupid publication from an MIT professor, claiming that energy efficiency is increasing (we produce more with less), based on statistical data. I think he did not understand the numbers. The US, like Germany is just exporting energy hungry productions to China. Consequently the numbers show exactly this. I emailed him the data an ask for an explanation based on his thesis but he did not reply. "There is no real physical limitation to achieving 100% renewables despite your “argument”. Either you did not read, or did not understand the link I posted. For the sake of the argument, lets assume that Germany CAN produce 100% of the required energy by renewable energy. What you don't take into account (besides exporting energy hungry productions): German does not only have to produce 100% of the energy, she has also to compensate for the GROWTH of energy consumption. Please read the article again. And this is something that is likely physically impossible. "These are both very shallow articles." You are free to have your own opinion. I consider both authors extremely smart. Gail Tverberg is possibly one of the smartest people I know. Ugo Bardi (not quoted here) is also worth to read. https://www.amazon.com/Seneca-Effect-Collapse-Frontiers-Collection/dp/3319572067 https://www.amazon.com/Seneca-Effect-Collapse-Frontiers-Coll... PS: I think it was this guy: The planet has a fever, and the cure is more capitalism, a prominent researcher argues https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/06/20/134845/the-planet-has-a-fever-and-the-cure-is-more-capitalism-a-prominent-economist-argues/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/06/20/134845/the-plane... I emailed him that I think energy hungry production is just outsourced to China and that the seemingly more efficient production is misleading. I asked him based on the following two articles, if he still believes in his thesis: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/11/15/is-it-really-possible-to-decouple-gdp-growth-from-energy-growth/ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/11/15/is-it-really-possible-... http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-consumption-are-inseparable.html http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-... But he did not reply.

by 5ersi 5y ago

newdude116 5y ago

"Actually the one sweating should be Russia, because on the long haul (10-20 years), Germany is going to be energy independent due to massive investments (also subsidies) into renewable energy." ROTFL Edit: Yes, please feel free to show your ignorance and lack of basic math skills and downvote this comment. For all others: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ I am sure Russia is not scared. Who should be scared is the world and who is scared is me but such dumb comments.

Hikikomori 5y ago
Interesting and fun read, but don't see how it relates to the near future, and even longer term. Energy demands likely closely follows population growth, which has been trending down for the last 50 years or so. Once it levels out so will energy demands, with some time lag as some countries catches up with standard of living. Unless your argument is that we will be unable to meet our energy demands at that point in time even with large amounts of renewables and nuclear I don't really see your point, even so Germany can likely meet their demands using renewables in the near future and go back to using nuclear at some later point in time.
- newdude116 5y ago
  Besides, that Germany is extremely bad suited for re-newable energies (little sun, wind at the wrong places, little hydroelectric power): 1. Yes, population growth may stop 2. Your argument with population numbers is totally irrelevant. Economics growth, which is linked to energy consumption, won't stop. If is stops, our society will likely collapse. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-state-economy-except-at-a-very-basic-level/ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-sta... In fact, with injecting trillions of dollars in the economy and negative interest rates, we may already have reached the end game. Exactly at the time from predicted by the Club of Rome, I think they predicted trouble for around 2030.
  - jiofih 5y ago
    So after your random-blog-post defense failed, you’re gonna completely drop the subject? I’d love to hear a proper response to the parent. Germany already produces enough renewable energy to sustain all residential use. There is no real physical limitation to achieving 100% renewables despite your “argument”. These are both very shallow articles. You need to find better sources if you’re gonna spout such claims, big words have no meaning of their own.
    - newdude116 5y ago
      "So after your random-blog-post defense failed" I don't see this. The original post was just extraordinary naive. "Germany already produces enough renewable energy to sustain all residential use." Maybe, a short look at the numbers look inconclusive. Besides that Germany relies on its neighbors to stabilize the net (speak nuclear!), it is unclear for me what the numbers mean. "Residential" use. Including heating? Basically everybody heats with oil or gas in Germany. You would also to take into account production costs (energy) of solar and wind energy harvesting systems. Please also see: "The institute’s Energy Charts project does not include data on the amount of power the generating facilities consume themselves to operate, or the power German industry produces and consumes without it being fed into the public grid." The is an incredibly stupid publication from an MIT professor, claiming that energy efficiency is increasing (we produce more with less), based on statistical data. I think he did not understand the numbers. The US, like Germany is just exporting energy hungry productions to China. Consequently the numbers show exactly this. I emailed him the data an ask for an explanation based on his thesis but he did not reply. "There is no real physical limitation to achieving 100% renewables despite your “argument”. Either you did not read, or did not understand the link I posted. For the sake of the argument, lets assume that Germany CAN produce 100% of the required energy by renewable energy. What you don't take into account (besides exporting energy hungry productions): German does not only have to produce 100% of the energy, she has also to compensate for the GROWTH of energy consumption. Please read the article again. And this is something that is likely physically impossible. "These are both very shallow articles." You are free to have your own opinion. I consider both authors extremely smart. Gail Tverberg is possibly one of the smartest people I know. Ugo Bardi (not quoted here) is also worth to read. https://www.amazon.com/Seneca-Effect-Collapse-Frontiers-Collection/dp/3319572067 https://www.amazon.com/Seneca-Effect-Collapse-Frontiers-Coll... PS: I think it was this guy: The planet has a fever, and the cure is more capitalism, a prominent researcher argues https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/06/20/134845/the-planet-has-a-fever-and-the-cure-is-more-capitalism-a-prominent-economist-argues/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/06/20/134845/the-plane... I emailed him that I think energy hungry production is just outsourced to China and that the seemingly more efficient production is misleading. I asked him based on the following two articles, if he still believes in his thesis: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/11/15/is-it-really-possible-to-decouple-gdp-growth-from-energy-growth/ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/11/15/is-it-really-possible-... http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-consumption-are-inseparable.html http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-... But he did not reply.