The problem with that approach is that it assumes everyone is foolish. A rational actor presented with information that oil supplies will decrease in the near f

The problem with that approach is that it assumes everyone is foolish. A rational actor presented with information that oil supplies will decrease in the near future would adjust his behavior as he sees fit. Moreover, the market will price in the costs of continuing to rely on oil. Sure, price in the externalities of oil use, but I don't think we should raise prices beyond that just to reduce demand.