3 ms·

half US homeless are in California with migrants arriving daily crime in SF has absolutely exploded These don't seem to be reflected in easily googleable stat

by pvg 5y ago

half US homeless are in California with migrants arriving daily crime in SF has absolutely exploded These don't seem to be reflected in easily googleable stats https://www.usich.gov/tools-for-action/map/#fn[]=1400&fn[]=2800&fn[]=6200&fn[]=10000&fn[]=13200 https://www.usich.gov/tools-for-action/map/#fn[]=1400&fn[]=2... https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crime-dashboard https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crim...

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
Devil’s advocate: a lot of crime in San Francisco isn’t reported. For example, the case mentioned in the article.
- paxys 5y ago
  The case mentioned in the article was reported. Reported != solved. If you called the police and they wrote it down, that's really all it takes to get counted.
- quanticle 5y ago
  The crime in the article was reported. From the article: The police officer said he was glad to have the license plate number but that robbery is so low-profile in the courts right now that even if they did catch him, without video proof, the thieves would be let go within a day or so. No, the officer didn't take action based upon what they saw, but it's reasonable to conclude that a police report was filled out for this incident.
  - aranchelk 5y ago
    It would be entirely reasonable for the cops to file a report, but I would not make the assumption that they did. Reasons cops file reports include: An intention to investigate the crime The victim requests a report for an insurance claim In this case they know it’s a hard crime to investigate. Based on the articles I’ve read, it seems thieves in SF often use stolen cars, so even the plates may not be that helpful. Moreover we have serious crimes like attempted murder and illegal gun possession in SF going un-prosecuted, so the cops cannot assume an arrest could lead to anything at all. Additionally filing a report with little hope for an arrest makes the precincts numbers look bad. Those numbers will get reported in neighborhood association meetings, and those association people (I’m one of them) can be a real pain in the ass to the politicians (i.e. the boss’s boss’s boss). It’s just not a good incentive structure and if we were going to do a clean redesign IMO the politicians and cops should have as little control over the official statistics as possible.
    - quanticle 5y ago
      Those are all fair points. I was thinking that the photographer would have asked for a report for insurance purposes, but maybe that isn't a great assumption.
- DeRock 5y ago
  The article mentions his conversation with the police, so assume it was reported.
  - dannyw 5y ago
    Not necessarily. At least here, when a police officer tells me they don't have the resources to go after something, they don't even ask for any of my details (nor seem to care) so it's hard to imagine they're recorded.
- RobertoG 5y ago
  Is crime in San Francisco reported in a lower percentage than in other places? That sounds weird, why should?
  - paxys 5y ago
    When the data supports your views – "here, look at this". When the data doesn't support your views – "it isn't reported correctly anyways". This is standard online discourse.
- pvg 5y ago
  Sure, the data might be bad. That's a sensible objection - I think the question it raises is 'what's your data'. Like, what are you devil's advocating, on what basis. The 'quality of data' question applies universally.
diob 5y ago
Thanks for actually linking to stats. I've been to San Francisco, it's not as bleak as the anecdotes folks constantly try to put on it. One of my favorite cities to visit.
- olivermarks 5y ago
  https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/audit-california-track-homeless-spending-set-policy-75835197 https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/audit-california-track-h... There are all sorts of stats and data out there. finding accurate information is very hard. Most counties have HMIS systems but many are not well maintained which tends to lead to very inaccurate data reporting. There is also the issue that the moment a person arrives in California and sits on the pavement they are considered a 'resident' by many of the data capture folks, many of whom are pursuing ideological agendas.
  - pvg 5y ago
    There are all sorts of stats and data out there That's true, do you happen to recall the sources of the ones you cited?
blululu 5y ago
I really appreciate this post. This is exactly why I thumb through HackerNews comments. From the look of it, CA has ~26% of the nation’s homeless population.
- visualradio 5y ago
  The idea that the majority homeless Californians are 'migrants' from out of state is largely upper class propaganda promoted to avoid discussion of downward mobility caused by high land prices. The problem could be solved by repealing proposition 58 and 13, establishing a state board of commisioners to reappraise all land at the state level at present market valuations, and replacing sales taxes with distributive land taxes. But property owners obviously don't want to hear that and would prefer to pretend the problem doesn't exist. "Where does California's Homeless Population Come From?" https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/06/us/homeless-population.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/06/us/homeless-population.ht... > As the data shows us, most of the homeless people you pass on the streets every day are in fact Californians. Some may have rented an apartment or once owned a home in your neighborhood. > L.A.H.S.A.’s 2019 homeless count found that 64 percent of the 58,936 Los Angeles County residents experiencing homelessness had lived in the city for more than 10 years. Less than a fifth (18 percent) said they had lived out of state before becoming homeless. > In Los Angeles, a renter earning minimum wage ($13.25 an hour) would need to work 79 hours per week to afford a one-bedroom apartment. > Data about migration to California from other states among the housed population showed that the largest group of transplants to the state were actually college-educated professionals > “I hear a lot of people complain that the homeless people are all from ‘somewhere else,’” wrote Ms. Kroger of Stockton, a lifelong Californian. “I think it might raise empathy and compassion if it turns out that the majority of the people who have been displaced are from the very communities in which they are now trying to survive on the streets.”
  - olivermarks 5y ago
    'The idea that the majority homeless Californians are 'migrants' from out of state is largely upper class propaganda promoted to avoid discussion of downward mobility caused by high land prices'. This, like so much of the political data wars over SMI, SA & transients, is partially true in coastal California. The reality is usually found in non politician friendly audits such as the Sonoma county grand jury findings or the recent California wide audit. https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/state-auditor-releases-scathing-audit-of-the-failure-to-mitigate-homelessness-in-california/ https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/state-auditor-releases... http://sonoma.courts.ca.gov/sites/all/assets/pdfs/general-info/Grand%20Jury%20Homeless%20Report%20Final.pdf http://sonoma.courts.ca.gov/sites/all/assets/pdfs/general-in... California has huge numbers of vehicle living transients who understandably migrate from colder and hotter climes across America, half the US homeless according to the recent audit. The bigger issue locally in California is migration from places like Redding down to the bay area, encouraged by the street grapevine about prop 47 lack of law enforcement, rich pickings and relaxed drug rules. In San Francisco drug dealers are commuting in from the central valley with Meth and Fentanyl, the current core are Hondurans. The best way to find out what is really going on is to talk to homeless people, ask them where they are from, talk to local emergency response crews and find out about HUD oversight of Continuum of Care, who in turn are supposed to provide oversight of the CDC. I strongly recommend taking politician and 'non profit' pr and stats with a strong pinch of salt...

by pvg 5y ago

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

Devil’s advocate: a lot of crime in San Francisco isn’t reported. For example, the case mentioned in the article.

paxys 5y ago
The case mentioned in the article was reported. Reported != solved. If you called the police and they wrote it down, that's really all it takes to get counted.
quanticle 5y ago
The crime in the article was reported. From the article: The police officer said he was glad to have the license plate number but that robbery is so low-profile in the courts right now that even if they did catch him, without video proof, the thieves would be let go within a day or so. No, the officer didn't take action based upon what they saw, but it's reasonable to conclude that a police report was filled out for this incident.
- aranchelk 5y ago
  It would be entirely reasonable for the cops to file a report, but I would not make the assumption that they did. Reasons cops file reports include: An intention to investigate the crime The victim requests a report for an insurance claim In this case they know it’s a hard crime to investigate. Based on the articles I’ve read, it seems thieves in SF often use stolen cars, so even the plates may not be that helpful. Moreover we have serious crimes like attempted murder and illegal gun possession in SF going un-prosecuted, so the cops cannot assume an arrest could lead to anything at all. Additionally filing a report with little hope for an arrest makes the precincts numbers look bad. Those numbers will get reported in neighborhood association meetings, and those association people (I’m one of them) can be a real pain in the ass to the politicians (i.e. the boss’s boss’s boss). It’s just not a good incentive structure and if we were going to do a clean redesign IMO the politicians and cops should have as little control over the official statistics as possible.
  - quanticle 5y ago
    Those are all fair points. I was thinking that the photographer would have asked for a report for insurance purposes, but maybe that isn't a great assumption.
DeRock 5y ago
The article mentions his conversation with the police, so assume it was reported.
- dannyw 5y ago
  Not necessarily. At least here, when a police officer tells me they don't have the resources to go after something, they don't even ask for any of my details (nor seem to care) so it's hard to imagine they're recorded.
RobertoG 5y ago
Is crime in San Francisco reported in a lower percentage than in other places? That sounds weird, why should?
- paxys 5y ago
  When the data supports your views – "here, look at this". When the data doesn't support your views – "it isn't reported correctly anyways". This is standard online discourse.
pvg 5y ago
Sure, the data might be bad. That's a sensible objection - I think the question it raises is 'what's your data'. Like, what are you devil's advocating, on what basis. The 'quality of data' question applies universally.

diob 5y ago

Thanks for actually linking to stats. I've been to San Francisco, it's not as bleak as the anecdotes folks constantly try to put on it. One of my favorite cities to visit.

olivermarks 5y ago
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/audit-california-track-homeless-spending-set-policy-75835197 https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/audit-california-track-h... There are all sorts of stats and data out there. finding accurate information is very hard. Most counties have HMIS systems but many are not well maintained which tends to lead to very inaccurate data reporting. There is also the issue that the moment a person arrives in California and sits on the pavement they are considered a 'resident' by many of the data capture folks, many of whom are pursuing ideological agendas.
- pvg 5y ago
  There are all sorts of stats and data out there That's true, do you happen to recall the sources of the ones you cited?

blululu 5y ago

I really appreciate this post. This is exactly why I thumb through HackerNews comments. From the look of it, CA has ~26% of the nation’s homeless population.

visualradio 5y ago
The idea that the majority homeless Californians are 'migrants' from out of state is largely upper class propaganda promoted to avoid discussion of downward mobility caused by high land prices. The problem could be solved by repealing proposition 58 and 13, establishing a state board of commisioners to reappraise all land at the state level at present market valuations, and replacing sales taxes with distributive land taxes. But property owners obviously don't want to hear that and would prefer to pretend the problem doesn't exist. "Where does California's Homeless Population Come From?" https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/06/us/homeless-population.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/06/us/homeless-population.ht... > As the data shows us, most of the homeless people you pass on the streets every day are in fact Californians. Some may have rented an apartment or once owned a home in your neighborhood. > L.A.H.S.A.’s 2019 homeless count found that 64 percent of the 58,936 Los Angeles County residents experiencing homelessness had lived in the city for more than 10 years. Less than a fifth (18 percent) said they had lived out of state before becoming homeless. > In Los Angeles, a renter earning minimum wage ($13.25 an hour) would need to work 79 hours per week to afford a one-bedroom apartment. > Data about migration to California from other states among the housed population showed that the largest group of transplants to the state were actually college-educated professionals > “I hear a lot of people complain that the homeless people are all from ‘somewhere else,’” wrote Ms. Kroger of Stockton, a lifelong Californian. “I think it might raise empathy and compassion if it turns out that the majority of the people who have been displaced are from the very communities in which they are now trying to survive on the streets.”
- olivermarks 5y ago
  'The idea that the majority homeless Californians are 'migrants' from out of state is largely upper class propaganda promoted to avoid discussion of downward mobility caused by high land prices'. This, like so much of the political data wars over SMI, SA & transients, is partially true in coastal California. The reality is usually found in non politician friendly audits such as the Sonoma county grand jury findings or the recent California wide audit. https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/state-auditor-releases-scathing-audit-of-the-failure-to-mitigate-homelessness-in-california/ https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/state-auditor-releases... http://sonoma.courts.ca.gov/sites/all/assets/pdfs/general-info/Grand%20Jury%20Homeless%20Report%20Final.pdf http://sonoma.courts.ca.gov/sites/all/assets/pdfs/general-in... California has huge numbers of vehicle living transients who understandably migrate from colder and hotter climes across America, half the US homeless according to the recent audit. The bigger issue locally in California is migration from places like Redding down to the bay area, encouraged by the street grapevine about prop 47 lack of law enforcement, rich pickings and relaxed drug rules. In San Francisco drug dealers are commuting in from the central valley with Meth and Fentanyl, the current core are Hondurans. The best way to find out what is really going on is to talk to homeless people, ask them where they are from, talk to local emergency response crews and find out about HUD oversight of Continuum of Care, who in turn are supposed to provide oversight of the CDC. I strongly recommend taking politician and 'non profit' pr and stats with a strong pinch of salt...