3 ms·

I don't think there is that much chance of shooting war, both sides have too much to lose. On the other hand I do think the intelligence services on both side

• pasabagi 5y ago
  > I don't think there is that much chance of shooting war, both sides have too much to lose. Everybody always thinks that, but unfortunately, these things sometimes happen, even by accident. Sane and reasonable people consistently and massively overestimate the high level decision-making around this kind of thing. James Mattis, for example, was quite keen on a war on Iran, which any reasonable person could tell you would be an absolute debacle, worse than Iraq and Afghanistan combined. MacArthur wanted to nuke China. A half-century earlier, Japan invaded China largely against the government's will, mostly due to a group of junior officers, and declared war on America essentially because what had started out as a worst-case contingency plan / way to get naval funding gained a life of its own. If the American state ever decides that a war is preferable to the loss of global primacy, a war could happen. People will convince themselves it will be short, the loss of life will be minimal, and if they convince everybody else, then you have your awful, monstrous disaster - just like the Japanese had, or the Iraqis had, or every state that ever stumbled into something that ended up totally out of their control.