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Expanding the sanctions to affect the entire country / citizenry has the side-effect of pushing populism there even closer to Russia, materially and emotionally

Expanding the sanctions to affect the entire country / citizenry has the side-effect of pushing populism there even closer to Russia, materially and emotionally, without having much effect on the actual bad actors beyond what the current sanctions do. Traditionally a next step would be political, then material, support for an organized internal opposition, but there doesn't seem to be an obvious one in this case.

ivan_gammel 5y ago
Economic sanctions can be aimed at Belarusian elites and state enterprises: ban on direct export to Belarus of luxury goods, advanced technology, ban on certain imports etc. At the same time freedom of movement with transit routes via Russia or Ukraine should be encouraged, to support low-volume trade and grey market. The bigger is shadow economy and the less concentrated is private sector, the more difficult is it for the regime to control it. It stimulates low level corruption and reduces loyalty of the law enforcement, increasing the chances of the opposition in the future.
- morelisp 5y ago
  > Economic sanctions can be aimed at Belarusian elites and state enterprises Yes, this is already happening since last year, and was already scheduled to be expanded for a fourth time in June. I assume this clinches that, and probably more. But the fact nobody seems to know there's been sanctions since last year suggests my other point - they're woefully ineffective as long as they can get other support.
Touche 5y ago
Sanctions are almost always too weak. Any sanction that the government can withstand is too weak and will have the affect you describe. A strong sanction that says "release the prisoner immediately" will be short and not affect citizens long enough to create such a sentiment.
- morelisp 5y ago
  What kind of sanction do you have in mind?
  - Touche 5y ago
    No use of airspace and no trade with NATO countries until the prisoners are released. It would take a week.
    - morelisp 5y ago
      No use of airspace is already being discussed and likely going to happen. NATO is a military alliance, not a trade union. There's no way for them to organize what you're suggesting. > It would take a week. Fidel might like to have a word with you...
      - bluGill 5y ago
        NATO members do talk to each other over a lot of different channels. It will take more than a week to organize, but it can be done.
        morelisp 5y ago
        But it will be as e.g. an EU action, not a NATO action. (I have doubts they will get anyone on the west side of the Atlantic to sign on, but I hope I'm wrong.) And the EU has already been acting. My point is: There's a lot of people in this thread demanding a vague "something" be done, but it's really not clear whether there is "something" between what the EU's plan has already been for months and a hot war, other than some ill-considered immediate panic.
      - Touche 5y ago
        Was Fidel being offered sanctions to end by releasing a specific hostage? Or was he being asked to relinquish power?

ivan_gammel 5y ago

Economic sanctions can be aimed at Belarusian elites and state enterprises: ban on direct export to Belarus of luxury goods, advanced technology, ban on certain imports etc. At the same time freedom of movement with transit routes via Russia or Ukraine should be encouraged, to support low-volume trade and grey market. The bigger is shadow economy and the less concentrated is private sector, the more difficult is it for the regime to control it. It stimulates low level corruption and reduces loyalty of the law enforcement, increasing the chances of the opposition in the future.

morelisp 5y ago
> Economic sanctions can be aimed at Belarusian elites and state enterprises Yes, this is already happening since last year, and was already scheduled to be expanded for a fourth time in June. I assume this clinches that, and probably more. But the fact nobody seems to know there's been sanctions since last year suggests my other point - they're woefully ineffective as long as they can get other support.

Touche 5y ago

Sanctions are almost always too weak. Any sanction that the government can withstand is too weak and will have the affect you describe. A strong sanction that says "release the prisoner immediately" will be short and not affect citizens long enough to create such a sentiment.

morelisp 5y ago
What kind of sanction do you have in mind?
- Touche 5y ago
  No use of airspace and no trade with NATO countries until the prisoners are released. It would take a week.
  - morelisp 5y ago
    No use of airspace is already being discussed and likely going to happen. NATO is a military alliance, not a trade union. There's no way for them to organize what you're suggesting. > It would take a week. Fidel might like to have a word with you...
    - bluGill 5y ago
      NATO members do talk to each other over a lot of different channels. It will take more than a week to organize, but it can be done.
      - morelisp 5y ago
        But it will be as e.g. an EU action, not a NATO action. (I have doubts they will get anyone on the west side of the Atlantic to sign on, but I hope I'm wrong.) And the EU has already been acting. My point is: There's a lot of people in this thread demanding a vague "something" be done, but it's really not clear whether there is "something" between what the EU's plan has already been for months and a hot war, other than some ill-considered immediate panic.
    - Touche 5y ago
      Was Fidel being offered sanctions to end by releasing a specific hostage? Or was he being asked to relinquish power?