4 ms·

There's a pretty comprehensive reddit post [0] by a virologist, James Duehr PhD, listing all the reasons why it appears that covid-19 did not come from the Wuha

There's a pretty comprehensive reddit post [0] by a virologist, James Duehr PhD, listing all the reasons why it appears that covid-19 did not come from the Wuhan lab (with numerous supporting references, well over a hundred). For example, section 4.4 [1] under Q4 in his table of contents explains how the strains of covid-19 from the Wuhan meat market are genetic descendants of earlier covid-19 patient samples from hundreds of miles away. There's a lot of good information in this post, I'd encourage anyone interested in this topic to read it. I have yet to see a fraction of the evidence presented by Dr. Duehr's reddit post in any article blaming the Wuhan lab. That includes this article, which quotes circumstantial evidence provided by unnamed and unconfirmed intelligence sources. [0] https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/fqpcfs2/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...

awb 5y ago
The theory centered mostly around: What are the odds that a bio lab doing gain of function research on SARS is in the same location as an outbreak of a novel SARS variant? Root Claim puts it’s at an 83% chance it’s a lab leak based on circumstantial evidence: https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2 https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV... It’s not definitive but it’s far from conspiracy theory territory.
- mikem170 5y ago
  Is this covered by Dr. Duehr's Section 2.1 [0] on chimeric work the lab was doing with viruses? That section explains how this looks very different genetically than a natural virus (one copy/paste versus hundreds of scattered little mutations). His explanations seem to have much more detail than the one you provided. [0] https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/fqpbagf/ https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...
  - awb 5y ago
    The source describes the difference between COVID and the research performed in a published paper. I don’t know the ins and outs of the lab or publishing research but it seems possible that other unpublished research could have been conducted. We’re a far cry from proving that the virus came from a lab leak, but I’ve read parts of this thread too and the author’s response to certain criticisms and while the author could be right I didn’t come away thinking that a lab leak was near 0% probable.
    - mikem170 5y ago
      But there are about 1200 mutations! From the source [0] Dr. Deurh's references: > there are 931 synonymous substitutions and 145 missense substitutions between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13. The other ORF regions (90%) are identical between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 Nobody does 931 + 145 substitutions for function of gain, do they? Dr Duehr says "this many differences or mutations (the mosaic) in the virus, can only reasonably have been made in nature." There was another section of his post that talked about how the receptor was optimized to work with multiple species (bat, pangolin, etc), something it would do evolving in nature. Now I'm not going to insist that there are never lab leaks. In fact, reading one article on this subject, I was shocked by how many lab leaks there are, every year, even right here in the U.S. [1]: > Young pointed to documents she recently obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, which revealed that laboratories in the United States "reported more than 450 accidents during 2015 through 2019 while experimenting with some of the world's most dangerous pathogens." > Such pathogens, Young revealed, included anthrax, Ebola, plague, and more. > "In nearly all reported cases, regulators deemed the breaches serious enough to put workers at risk of becoming infected," she wrote. "As a result, more than 660 U.S. scientists and other lab workers involved in the incidents underwent medical assessment or treatment with preventative medications." Based on Dr. Deuhr's thoroughly documented post I just don't think that covid-19 was a lab leak. Some viruses jump between animals and humans, this looks like it was just another one. I would rather that we talk about all the other lab leaks that go on. Who's making the decisions to put the public at risk? Is there anything we can do about any of this? There was a flu in the mid-1970s due to a lab leak. It's only a matter of time until something else happens. [0] https://www.futuremedicine.com/doi/full/10.2217/fvl-2020-0066 https://www.futuremedicine.com/doi/full/10.2217/fvl-2020-006... [1] https://www.theblaze.com/news/investigative-reporter-lab-leaks-wuhan-covid https://www.theblaze.com/news/investigative-reporter-lab-lea...

awb 5y ago

The theory centered mostly around: What are the odds that a bio lab doing gain of function research on SARS is in the same location as an outbreak of a novel SARS variant? Root Claim puts it’s at an 83% chance it’s a lab leak based on circumstantial evidence: https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2 https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV... It’s not definitive but it’s far from conspiracy theory territory.

mikem170 5y ago
Is this covered by Dr. Duehr's Section 2.1 [0] on chimeric work the lab was doing with viruses? That section explains how this looks very different genetically than a natural virus (one copy/paste versus hundreds of scattered little mutations). His explanations seem to have much more detail than the one you provided. [0] https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/fqpbagf/ https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...
- awb 5y ago
  The source describes the difference between COVID and the research performed in a published paper. I don’t know the ins and outs of the lab or publishing research but it seems possible that other unpublished research could have been conducted. We’re a far cry from proving that the virus came from a lab leak, but I’ve read parts of this thread too and the author’s response to certain criticisms and while the author could be right I didn’t come away thinking that a lab leak was near 0% probable.
  - mikem170 5y ago
    But there are about 1200 mutations! From the source [0] Dr. Deurh's references: > there are 931 synonymous substitutions and 145 missense substitutions between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13. The other ORF regions (90%) are identical between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 Nobody does 931 + 145 substitutions for function of gain, do they? Dr Duehr says "this many differences or mutations (the mosaic) in the virus, can only reasonably have been made in nature." There was another section of his post that talked about how the receptor was optimized to work with multiple species (bat, pangolin, etc), something it would do evolving in nature. Now I'm not going to insist that there are never lab leaks. In fact, reading one article on this subject, I was shocked by how many lab leaks there are, every year, even right here in the U.S. [1]: > Young pointed to documents she recently obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, which revealed that laboratories in the United States "reported more than 450 accidents during 2015 through 2019 while experimenting with some of the world's most dangerous pathogens." > Such pathogens, Young revealed, included anthrax, Ebola, plague, and more. > "In nearly all reported cases, regulators deemed the breaches serious enough to put workers at risk of becoming infected," she wrote. "As a result, more than 660 U.S. scientists and other lab workers involved in the incidents underwent medical assessment or treatment with preventative medications." Based on Dr. Deuhr's thoroughly documented post I just don't think that covid-19 was a lab leak. Some viruses jump between animals and humans, this looks like it was just another one. I would rather that we talk about all the other lab leaks that go on. Who's making the decisions to put the public at risk? Is there anything we can do about any of this? There was a flu in the mid-1970s due to a lab leak. It's only a matter of time until something else happens. [0] https://www.futuremedicine.com/doi/full/10.2217/fvl-2020-0066 https://www.futuremedicine.com/doi/full/10.2217/fvl-2020-006... [1] https://www.theblaze.com/news/investigative-reporter-lab-leaks-wuhan-covid https://www.theblaze.com/news/investigative-reporter-lab-lea...