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This is very bold move. They want his network, that's why this young man is so valuable. I hope the international community will act quickly, that his contacts

• EugeneOZ 5y ago
  The international community will do exactly NOTHING, as always. Hundreds of people have been tortured in Belarus by a crazy dictator, and nobody actually gives a shit. The only thing they can do is to say how “worrying this situation is”. Leaders without the balls. Maniacs like Lukashenko and Putin will do whatever they want while the only reaction is talking.
  • ptero 5y ago
    What about forcing the plane of the Bolivian president to land in 2013; what that justified? Lukashenko is doing what "international community" did then -- trying to catch an inconvenient person that the state cannot legally reach otherwise. I am not claiming that such things should be left with no response. In fact, I suspect this might hasten Lukashenko's downfall (quod licet Iovi, non licet bovi), but he is just taking a page from the "western civilization" playbook. My 2c.
    • lovecg 5y ago
      > What about… I seem to remember there’s a term for what you’re doing in your post…
      • ptero 5y ago
        Please enlighten me. Ideally, not with a "whataboutism" label, but with a description of why it fits here.
      • whimsicalism 5y ago
        If we're trying to set up international norms, it kinda seems relevant to what those norms are. Are we distinguishing between those two events or are they equally illegal? What should the punishment be?
  • finnh 5y ago
    Many people give a shit, but it's not straightforward to replace a dictator with something better ... Witness every war since WWII
    • baybal2 5y ago
      It is straightforward, and US did it in 1945. It is very straightforward. Very straightforward.
      • selimthegrim 5y ago
        They seem to have lost their mojo in 2003.
      • PeterisP 5y ago
        1945 is probably a good counterexample. If Hitler had kept his regime and genocide locally and not invaded neighbours, there would be no WW2, everybody would let him do that. Just like in Cambodia, or Rwanda, or North Korea, or many, many other examples - as a rule, the world does not intervene with violent regime change just because a regime is abusing their people. Like, nobody in power batted an eye when Saddam gassed Kurds in his territory, intervention happened only when he invaded Kuwait. I'm not even sure if I have seen a single exception in 20th-21st century history; it feels like humanitarian aspects have been only used as a pretext or justification if there were other politic/economic reasons that mattered more than that.
        • konart 5y ago
          I think he was talking about Japan rather than Germany.
        • whimsicalism 5y ago
          Libya? Syria? Afghanistan, arguably? Vietnam? Those are really just off the top of my head.
          • PeterisP 5y ago
  • JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > international community will do exactly NOTHING, as always. Hundreds of people have been tortured in Belarus by a crazy dictator There is a huge difference between diverting an international flight and terrorising one’s own citizens. The latter is a humanitarian crisis. The former is a threat to me and my family. That’s a material difference. At the very least, Belarusian air space and air access rights should be curtailed. It would also be reasonable to scramble NATO assets to protect those airways.
    • stjohnswarts 5y ago
      Ryan Air should stop all flights in and out of Belarus until this guy is released and go somewhere where he is free. Then some other companies could follow their lead.
      • wasmitnetzen 5y ago
        Ryanair does not fly to Belarus, even in non-Covid times. This flight was just passing Belarusian airspace on the way to Lithuania.
    • throwaway21_ 5y ago
      NATO to "protect" airways over Belarus? When pigs fly, I guess.
    • Mountain_Skies 5y ago
      Russia would not permit NATO to control Belarusian air space. Despite some recent strained relations, Russia would see such a move against Belarus as a move against Russia. The western world's love of "no fly zones" only works with the weakest of opponents that have few friends. This isn't Iraq or Libya, this is Russia's front porch. This type of saber rattling is the type that starts act hot wars.
      • JumpCrisscross 5y ago
        > Russia would not permit NATO to control Belarusian air space Nobody proposed NATO air dominance over Belarus. What I proposed is restricting international flights through Belarusian ATZ, denying Belarusian flights international overfly, escorting international flights that get close to Belarus with armed NATO platforms and denying neighbouring airspace to Belarusian armed platforms.
  • sofixa 5y ago
    What do you want them to do? Do you think people anywhere are willing to go to ( potentially nuclear ) war over Belarus? And even if there's a war, ans the "good guys" win, how does that guarantee that things will be better than before, and won't devolve into chaos and civil war, like they did in Iraq or Lybia?
    • achikin 5y ago
      Well they did a lot for Japan and Germany after WW2.
      • sofixa 5y ago
        That was over 70 years ago. Try finding a more recent example.
      • whimsicalism 5y ago
        Frankly, and I rarely use this word, a stupid comparison. You're not going to get a lot of people on your side suggesting we do to Belarus what we did to Japan.
    • EugeneOZ 5y ago
      I want them to freeze bank accounts and immovables of the Belarusian establishment, including the most powerful elites. Look at Putin - doesn't matter what he does, his retinue does what they want. They are enjoying super-yachts, parking them without any issues in European ports, their kids are still “almost gods” and do whatever they want. The western world gratefully takes the money from dictatorship regimes, and they don't give a shit where money comes from. While it happens, dictators will not stop. As soon as dictators lose their establishment support, they’ll be overthrown. All of the “sanctions” are so ridiculous, that it looks like these sanctions were made to calm down the own citizens, not to stop this devastating money flow.
      • Arech 5y ago
        Thank you. This post should be pinned to the top.
  • aus-lander 5y ago
    "The international community will do exactly NOTHING" I very much hope you are right. I very much hope also, that this very same "international community", as you choose to call it, would stop supporting what might be very objectively called fomenting violence in Belorussia and Russia.
    • unethical_ban 5y ago
      Is this a throwaway from an HN user sympathetic to dictators, or is this a member of Russia's contracted troll farms?
      • aus-lander 5y ago
        No, most of Russian people, as far as I know, think more or less like me. I understand this might bother you, but you see, the reality is one thing, and your state propaganda is another.
        • aus-lander 5y ago
          .. so unless you think that I must not be allowed to express my opinion, because the only Russians allowed to express their opinions here would be Navalnyi followers and the like, bear with me.
          • unethical_ban 5y ago
            Well, if you support a gangster wannabe KGB agent like Putin, you're certainly in the wrong. But go ahead and express yourself. Welcome to American free expression.
        • unethical_ban 5y ago
          I'll trust the friend I have from Belarus, along with videos and reporting I've seen from Minsk, that this was in fact a wannabe dictator kidnapping his political opponent by forcing down an international flight.
• PeterisP 5y ago
  There's nothing effective that's going to be done about this. Regimes like that change only when forced by violence or credible threats of violence in their territory - actual power, not "soft power", it will change only because of large quantities of people in Belarus/Minsk actually make the change happen (as opposed to just asking for change). Looking around, who might make such a change? 1. Western countries definitely won't do that in Belarus, a boots-on-the-ground invasion like that seems totally implausible and would risk escalation into a military conflict with Russia, it's just not going to happen; 2. The Belarus opposition decided to explicitly avoid trying anything and limit their activities to nonviolent protests - last year there were some moments where perhaps they had a chance to overthrow the regime if they tried, but now the regime has succeeded in repressing the opposition (partly through acts like in this article), they can't rally masses as much anymore, so no chances in the short term; 3. Russia has no need to do that, they seem to be satisfied with the current direction and whatever deals they made; 4. Internally, the regime seems stable. Last year perhaps there were some questions on whether all structures of power would support Lukashenka, but that seems to be over for now - but IMHO this is the only thing that can change the country's direction, if the regime stays unified, Lukashenka will get away with all of this (and, most likely, escalate it) for a decade or more easily, the existing regime is stuck and can't change (since as soon as they loosen the grip, they'll end up like Gaddafi), but if a "court coup" happens, they might change the direction. So all that's on the table is complaining loudly and sanctions that aren't going to be effective in the short term. I mean, the only way how sanctions can work is if they make the economic situation dire enough so that Belarus people actually do revolt, until that, the regime will make sure that the siloviki get their share of the dwindling funds and it won't change their behavior as that behavior is now required for their self-preservation.
  • baybal2 5y ago
    > Western countries definitely won't do that in Belarus, a boots-on-the-ground invasion like that seems totally implausible Why so? NATO completely towers over Belorus army. It has only a single airbase — Minsk, and all its air defence for this city only. More importantly, it's military is critically short of skilled manpower, just like is Russian army (having more vehicles than pilots for them.) Belarus triggering a defence treaty with Russia? Pffff, he can trigger it upon his own head, as did Armenia. Russia will not come when faced with credible force. > but now the regime has succeeded in repressing the opposition (partly through acts like in this article), they can't rally masses as much anymore, so no chances in the short term; Any government in the world can be overthrown by a popular revolt. Any. If you think about things seriously, and reject useless sentimentalism, using power starts make sense. A very obvious benefit of doing so, is that it is the quickest, and easiest way to discredit defeatist voices.
• stjohnswarts 5y ago
  Good point. They no doubt learned a lot about torture during the Cold War years and from some of the best. It's really a shame that countries are allowed to do this and it would seem like there would be some international agreement against it.