NATO has very heavy radar and ELINT coverage over that area, due to proximity to Kaliningrad. An intercept and shoot down would have been observed. Since the ai

NATO has very heavy radar and ELINT coverage over that area, due to proximity to Kaliningrad. An intercept and shoot down would have been observed. Since the aircraft is Polish registered, and flying from Greece to Lithuania, it would be viewed as a direct attack on NATO. This more mild strategy worked perfectly: Lukashenko gets to execute a political threat on trumped up charges, and there's essentially zero risk of a reprisal other than further sanctions, which were going to happen anyhow. This is one of the reasons why I wish US/NATO had taken a stronger stand vs Russia's hybrid warfare tactics.