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When I say we're running out of oil, I mean we're running out of cheap, easily accessible oil. We'll have oil for quite some time; it will just get more expensi
by natrius 18y ago
When I say we're running out of oil, I mean we're running out of cheap, easily accessible oil. We'll have oil for quite some time; it will just get more expensive. Maybe I'm wrong and the peak of global oil supply is still a ways off. In that case, we'll have made a less painful transition than we would have otherwise. The longer we continue to use energy as we currently do, the more infrastructure will be built based on that consumption, and the more new infrastructure we will need to build in the future to accommodate lower energy use.
"When we get into "potential environmental damages", unless you're prepared to make a risk-reward argument with hard statistics we're treading on personal opinion ground."
It is personal opinion. I don't see the problem with that. I like my shorelines sans oil spills. I don't think the risk is worth a couple of cents a gallon off of gas. Any quantification of the risks and rewards of offshore drilling will be equally subjective as my assertion that it isn't worth it. If the rest of the country agrees (which looks unlikely at this point), then more offshore drilling won't happen.
"doesn't the market provide the most goods at the lowest prices, thereby helping the poor much more optimally than a government policy would?"
Yes. Cheap energy for the poor would be nice, but the decrease in price of energy caused by offshore drilling isn't worth the potential environmental damage in my opinion.
"But you're talking about potentially billons of people who will have a harder time reaching their potential for decades while we re-tool."
It sounds like you're talking about more than just offshore drilling here, as that would have a tiny effect on people reaching their potential. As far as broader governmental efforts that will raise the price of oil, I don't think we should go any further than pricing in the externalities of oil usage. Paying for the damage you cause isn't that radical of a notion.
- DanielBMarkham 18y agoOk. I'm happy that at least we're discussing opinions here. Looks like the Chinese are going to develop off Cuba and the Russians have plans for the North Pole. You must feel we're in a pretty strong position to give up the cheap energy close-by and plan on a transition of unknown qualities and length. I mean, I'm all for the transition too, as I've pointed out, but to _manage_ the transition? Wow. It's a breathtaking position. As an example, our behavior over the last 30 years sounds like: hey look -- the world energy market isn't to our liking. Let's stop local energy production and transmission and then it'll transition to something better! This "what is a pretty beach" or "what is a pretty sky' question is going to continue haunting us, and it's quite frankly the reason we've screwed the pooch so long by not building anything. For that reason, I am dubious that we can ever come to a national consensus. It's something the politicians have figured out that they can keep us fighting about. I'd like to see several hundred nuclear power plants built over the next 30 years. I'd also like a pony. I'd like to see the fuel re-processed, like France does. If entrepreneurs want to continue work with wind and solar let's encourage them by offering prizes for measurable goals.