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What sanctions are left to use? Asset freezes and travel sanctions weren’t enough. Total export sanctions to the west? They sell some fuel etc. and EU is a lar

What sanctions are left to use? Asset freezes and travel sanctions weren’t enough. Total export sanctions to the west? They sell some fuel etc. and EU is a large trading partner.

snvzz 5y ago
Total isolation would be a start.
- GekkePrutser 5y ago
  I would agree, but the problem is that such sanctions hurt the population the most. This is not a good choice in dictatorships as the population has no choice who to vote for. The regime top clique will keep eating well off smuggled imports, while the general population will starve.
  - snvzz 5y ago
    >but the problem is that such sanctions hurt the population the most. This sort of coexistence has been attempted and patently failed. It's their population, not ours. An important distinction. We (rest of the world, but particularly Europe) need to get stricter.
    - pdpi 5y ago
      What does that achieve, though?
      - jiofih 5y ago
        Pressure to stop pulling this kind of bs if they want to remain a viable economy in Europe. Honestly, I wish the next step would be for NATO to step in and restore the country to a legitimate government. Between this, Syria, Lebanon, Ukraine, China, Israel, the world has been way too conivent with the destruction of democracy.
        pdpi 5y ago
        Sanctions only achieve that if they punish the illegitimate government (hopefully without punishing the rest of the population). Being tough for the sake of being tough without having a clear model for what leverage you’re getting is just political posturing.
        Jeff_Brown 5y ago
        > if they want to remain a viable economy What a country wants is not in general what those in power want.
        vbezhenar 5y ago
        Belarus is in military alliance with Russia (Collective Security Treaty Organization). Any military action against Belarus will be met with Russian army defending its territory. Also I think that the more sanctions are put from West to Belarus, the closer it gets to become another Russia state. I'm not sure if that's the outcome West wants to see.
        jiofih 5y ago
        And military action from Belarus against an EU civilian aircraft should be met with what?
        vbezhenar 5y ago
        Belarus was within its bounds. They did not shoot aircraft, they released aircraft and all EU citizens shortly afterwards, they have legal reasons to do so (which was likely fabricated, but one can't prove that). It's a bad accident, but it's not a war.
        fakename11 5y ago
        Are you seriously describing this as a "bad accident"?
        jiofih 5y ago
        I’m appalled. Just because they didn’t kill anyone (yet, as one passenger is on their way to the firing squad) this should be fine? This is plain and simple hijacking of an international flight and not “within bounds” at all. Laws are to be followed in principle, not just technical merit, these are not computer games.
  - orthoxerox 5y ago
    > This is not a good choice in dictatorships as the population has no choice who to vote for. The population voted for the opposition candidate, took to the streets when the results were rigged, but had no leaders willing to escalate the confrontation when the state had its pants down. The dictator has buckled his pants and has gradually reduced the opposition to posting memes in Telegram chats. And even this activity is no longer safe.
    - pedrosorio 5y ago
      > but had no leaders willing to escalate the confrontation when the state had its pants down Are we talking about military leaders who support the current dictator? What could the leaders of the opposition have done to escalate the confrontation further?
    - sam_lowry_ 5y ago
      > had no leaders Leaders were either killed or forced into exile.
  - Otek 5y ago
    I know what I will write will sound like I don’t have any empathy but… hitting population hard, to the starvation even, will make them go after Lukashenko. This is why communism in Poland was defeated by the workers. They had no bread so they had to rise. Again, I would like to underline that this is not a solution that I support but history showed us this is how u make a revolution and real change
    - awb 5y ago
      Maybe decades ago, but there was no uprising in North Korea despite famines and food rationing.
    - T-A 5y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine
- Tade0 5y ago
  That's about the worst idea possible. Many people work in neighbouring countries and cross the border regularly to see their families. Such a move would affect them the most.
  - rebuilder 5y ago
    That's the point, to rile up the population so much that the regime must either cave to whatever is being demanded of them or face an uprising. Will it work? Very iffy - often the only thing worse than an autocratic regime is whatever fills the power vacuum its fall creates. Disorderly transfers of power are bad business.
    - Jeff_Brown 5y ago
      It's easy to call for a Hail Mary strategy from afar. Protest is becoming more common[1], but protests that successfully topple regimes remain rare. I could swear I saw recent research indicating that the fraction of protest movements that lead to regime change has fallen over time, but I can't find it now. [1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/10/political-protests-have-become-more-widespread-and-more-frequent https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/10/politica...
      - rebuilder 5y ago
        I don't mean to call for anything, just pointing out that sanctions mainly hurting the population may be the intended effect.
        Jeff_Brown 5y ago
        That's fair. I'll soften my point, to say merely that the call is often made, not that you were making it.
    - monoideism 5y ago
      Belarussian population has been admirably fired up for quite some time. There have been multiple uprisings. But when they're up against armed militia and police, they can't do much (this is why so many Americans are adamant about the 1st Amendment). Targeted sanctions are the only ethical option at this point. Don't make the population suffer like we did for Iraq.
varjag 5y ago
- Drop official relations to the regime in any capacity. Diplomatic, economic, sports. Exclude it from membership in any organization where Russia has no veto right. - Recognize Tsikhanouskaya government as interim government in exile. Insist that this government is the official venue for any engagement (exports, imports, sport event participation). - Ban all regime officials in all branches from entry.
- ckdarby 5y ago
  You move to tactics that can cripple a country even if the country doesn't need international trade. The focus shifts to cyber warfare where you take out infrastructure.
- ivan_gammel 5y ago
  Tsikhanouskaya has no government and cannot be recognized as a legitimate president, only as opposition leader. There are only indications that she may have got popular vote, but until there are free and transparent elections it is only a rumor - not enough for recognition by democratic standards. In this role the only topic that can be discussed with her is the peaceful transition of power and organization of new elections - until they happen, there is no recognized government and no negotiation party. Active non-recognition can be a good option here: since there is no recognized government, in all applicable cases (events, elections in international organizations etc) it shall be decided that Belarus abstained from vote or was absent. Membership and contractual payments from Belarus can be rejected and considered not happening, resulting in suspensions, sanctions and cancellations and so on and so on.
  - varjag 5y ago
    Tsikhanuskaya has a competent skeletal crew that can be built into a government, that's just a technicality. And yes it absolutely can get recognized; historically governments were recognized with less. If democratic process is your only yardstick for recognition of world governments, I have bad news about a lot of places that are none the less recognized. It is a matter of political will, which is the only thing that is practically lacking.
gpm 5y ago
Borrowing from someone somewhere else in this thread, banning all air travel into and out of Belarusian air space seems appropriate.
- Mountain_Skies 5y ago
  Russia has military bases and radar installations in Belarus. What are you planning to do about them? Have NATO shoot down Russian aircraft over Belarus?
  - gpm 5y ago
    Ah, I meant from allied states. You'd probably refuse entry to planes that went directly Belarus airspace -> Russian airspace -> allied airspace as well, but you don't have the ability to deny Belarus airspace -> Russia airspace. Poland is apparently really mad about this, and given that Ukraine is currently at war with Russia you can probably get them on board. Just those two are a pretty good "wall". Maybe add in a few states blocking northern routes (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), or not as effectively (Germany, Denmark, Sweden) and they're really isolated from everything apart from Russia. Anyways, idle speculation, I'm definitely not an expert on this type of politics. I'm sure that in reality a move like this would have all sorts of consequences that I can't predict.
def_true_false 5y ago
Well, Germany could build a gas pipeline through Belarus, too. /s

What sanctions are left to use? Asset freezes and travel sanctions weren’t enough. Total export sanctions to the west? They sell some fuel etc. and EU is a large trading partner.

snvzz 5y ago

Total isolation would be a start.

GekkePrutser 5y ago
I would agree, but the problem is that such sanctions hurt the population the most. This is not a good choice in dictatorships as the population has no choice who to vote for. The regime top clique will keep eating well off smuggled imports, while the general population will starve.
- snvzz 5y ago
  >but the problem is that such sanctions hurt the population the most. This sort of coexistence has been attempted and patently failed. It's their population, not ours. An important distinction. We (rest of the world, but particularly Europe) need to get stricter.
  - pdpi 5y ago
    What does that achieve, though?
    - jiofih 5y ago
      Pressure to stop pulling this kind of bs if they want to remain a viable economy in Europe. Honestly, I wish the next step would be for NATO to step in and restore the country to a legitimate government. Between this, Syria, Lebanon, Ukraine, China, Israel, the world has been way too conivent with the destruction of democracy.
      - pdpi 5y ago
        Sanctions only achieve that if they punish the illegitimate government (hopefully without punishing the rest of the population). Being tough for the sake of being tough without having a clear model for what leverage you’re getting is just political posturing.
      - Jeff_Brown 5y ago
        > if they want to remain a viable economy What a country wants is not in general what those in power want.
      - vbezhenar 5y ago
        Belarus is in military alliance with Russia (Collective Security Treaty Organization). Any military action against Belarus will be met with Russian army defending its territory. Also I think that the more sanctions are put from West to Belarus, the closer it gets to become another Russia state. I'm not sure if that's the outcome West wants to see.
        jiofih 5y ago
        And military action from Belarus against an EU civilian aircraft should be met with what?
        vbezhenar 5y ago
        Belarus was within its bounds. They did not shoot aircraft, they released aircraft and all EU citizens shortly afterwards, they have legal reasons to do so (which was likely fabricated, but one can't prove that). It's a bad accident, but it's not a war.
        fakename11 5y ago
        Are you seriously describing this as a "bad accident"?
        jiofih 5y ago
        I’m appalled. Just because they didn’t kill anyone (yet, as one passenger is on their way to the firing squad) this should be fine? This is plain and simple hijacking of an international flight and not “within bounds” at all. Laws are to be followed in principle, not just technical merit, these are not computer games.
- orthoxerox 5y ago
  > This is not a good choice in dictatorships as the population has no choice who to vote for. The population voted for the opposition candidate, took to the streets when the results were rigged, but had no leaders willing to escalate the confrontation when the state had its pants down. The dictator has buckled his pants and has gradually reduced the opposition to posting memes in Telegram chats. And even this activity is no longer safe.
  - pedrosorio 5y ago
    > but had no leaders willing to escalate the confrontation when the state had its pants down Are we talking about military leaders who support the current dictator? What could the leaders of the opposition have done to escalate the confrontation further?
  - sam_lowry_ 5y ago
    > had no leaders Leaders were either killed or forced into exile.
- Otek 5y ago
  I know what I will write will sound like I don’t have any empathy but… hitting population hard, to the starvation even, will make them go after Lukashenko. This is why communism in Poland was defeated by the workers. They had no bread so they had to rise. Again, I would like to underline that this is not a solution that I support but history showed us this is how u make a revolution and real change
  - awb 5y ago
    Maybe decades ago, but there was no uprising in North Korea despite famines and food rationing.
  - T-A 5y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine
Tade0 5y ago
That's about the worst idea possible. Many people work in neighbouring countries and cross the border regularly to see their families. Such a move would affect them the most.
- rebuilder 5y ago
  That's the point, to rile up the population so much that the regime must either cave to whatever is being demanded of them or face an uprising. Will it work? Very iffy - often the only thing worse than an autocratic regime is whatever fills the power vacuum its fall creates. Disorderly transfers of power are bad business.
  - Jeff_Brown 5y ago
    It's easy to call for a Hail Mary strategy from afar. Protest is becoming more common[1], but protests that successfully topple regimes remain rare. I could swear I saw recent research indicating that the fraction of protest movements that lead to regime change has fallen over time, but I can't find it now. [1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/10/political-protests-have-become-more-widespread-and-more-frequent https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/10/politica...
    - rebuilder 5y ago
      I don't mean to call for anything, just pointing out that sanctions mainly hurting the population may be the intended effect.
      - Jeff_Brown 5y ago
        That's fair. I'll soften my point, to say merely that the call is often made, not that you were making it.
  - monoideism 5y ago
    Belarussian population has been admirably fired up for quite some time. There have been multiple uprisings. But when they're up against armed militia and police, they can't do much (this is why so many Americans are adamant about the 1st Amendment). Targeted sanctions are the only ethical option at this point. Don't make the population suffer like we did for Iraq.

varjag 5y ago

- Drop official relations to the regime in any capacity. Diplomatic, economic, sports. Exclude it from membership in any organization where Russia has no veto right. - Recognize Tsikhanouskaya government as interim government in exile. Insist that this government is the official venue for any engagement (exports, imports, sport event participation). - Ban all regime officials in all branches from entry.

ckdarby 5y ago
You move to tactics that can cripple a country even if the country doesn't need international trade. The focus shifts to cyber warfare where you take out infrastructure.
ivan_gammel 5y ago
Tsikhanouskaya has no government and cannot be recognized as a legitimate president, only as opposition leader. There are only indications that she may have got popular vote, but until there are free and transparent elections it is only a rumor - not enough for recognition by democratic standards. In this role the only topic that can be discussed with her is the peaceful transition of power and organization of new elections - until they happen, there is no recognized government and no negotiation party. Active non-recognition can be a good option here: since there is no recognized government, in all applicable cases (events, elections in international organizations etc) it shall be decided that Belarus abstained from vote or was absent. Membership and contractual payments from Belarus can be rejected and considered not happening, resulting in suspensions, sanctions and cancellations and so on and so on.
- varjag 5y ago
  Tsikhanuskaya has a competent skeletal crew that can be built into a government, that's just a technicality. And yes it absolutely can get recognized; historically governments were recognized with less. If democratic process is your only yardstick for recognition of world governments, I have bad news about a lot of places that are none the less recognized. It is a matter of political will, which is the only thing that is practically lacking.

gpm 5y ago

Borrowing from someone somewhere else in this thread, banning all air travel into and out of Belarusian air space seems appropriate.

Mountain_Skies 5y ago
Russia has military bases and radar installations in Belarus. What are you planning to do about them? Have NATO shoot down Russian aircraft over Belarus?
- gpm 5y ago
  Ah, I meant from allied states. You'd probably refuse entry to planes that went directly Belarus airspace -> Russian airspace -> allied airspace as well, but you don't have the ability to deny Belarus airspace -> Russia airspace. Poland is apparently really mad about this, and given that Ukraine is currently at war with Russia you can probably get them on board. Just those two are a pretty good "wall". Maybe add in a few states blocking northern routes (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), or not as effectively (Germany, Denmark, Sweden) and they're really isolated from everything apart from Russia. Anyways, idle speculation, I'm definitely not an expert on this type of politics. I'm sure that in reality a move like this would have all sorts of consequences that I can't predict.

def_true_false 5y ago

Well, Germany could build a gas pipeline through Belarus, too. /s