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Oh hey, Mike Hearn! I've long been a fan of yours in Bitcoin. It's good to see you're interested in 'bad science' lately as well -- this is a topic I've also

by toomim 5y ago

Oh hey, Mike Hearn! I've long been a fan of yours in Bitcoin. It's good to see you're interested in 'bad science' lately as well -- this is a topic I've also been working on for the last N years along with Bitcoin. I hope we get to interact more in the future. :) My envisioned solution is similar to yours, here. But rather than "privatize science", which I think most people will interpret as "move to industrial research", my rallying cry is a little more like "hey scientists, stop depending on public funding, let's find creative ways to get the science done." I also like to point out that money is often not the missing factor as much as community. This has always been true. Mendel discovered genetics by experimenting on beanstalks in his garden at his monastery. It cost him very little to do it, and he only stopped the research when his community told him to stop wasting time on beans and get back to the important accounting work that impacted the church's politics at the time. You might think that maybe science was cheap in the past, but that today you need lots of money, to get the lab equipment, etc. However, science always has a cutting edge of cheaply evaluable questions. We recently hosted a DIY Synthetic Biologist (currently on the homepage of https://invisible.college https://invisible.college) who showed the actual costs of his work, and his laboratory equipment was far, far, cheaper than the "cost" of his time. We can get far more science done with "amateur scientists" (remember that "ama" means love, and an amateur scientist is one doing science for love) by creating a scientific community outside the institutions for interested parties to work together, pool their brainpower and resources, and come up with great novel work. And if anyone else agrees with me on this, please let me know so we can forces. I'm toomim@gmail.com, and am doing work on invisible.college.

mike_hearn 5y ago
Hello! Absolutely, drop me an email any time you like. I absolutely agree that a lot of science can be done very cheaply. Some of the most impactful papers were done by people who weren't in an institutional framework, even in the modern era (Satoshi being an obvious example). Additionally it seems most of the really problematic fields are ones where the budget gets dispersed over large number of people writing very cheap low budget papers, hence millions of social science papers with tiny sample sizes. I'm a big supporter of industrial research though. Many great papers come out of industrial labs. Modern computing is practically defined by such research. The big advances all seem to come from big corporate labs (Xerox PARC, Bell Labs, Google, DeepMind, IBM, Sun, Microsoft, etc). The research is powerful because it's funded by people who expect some sort of meaningful results and supervise the work to ensure it doesn't go completely off the rails. Academic institutions have developed this totally hands off attitude that makes research more or less unaccountable to any standard beyond "will it get published", which in turn can be rephrased as "are the claims interesting".
- toomim 5y ago
  Great! Thank you for the invitation! :) > The big advances all seem to come from big corporate labs That's an interesting claim, and I'd encourage you to find some statistics to verify this hypothesis, because in my experience, that doesn't ring true. From my subjective perspective, it seems that academic and industrial research labs innovate at roughly the same rate per-capita. I was a PhD student when Microsoft was dominant, hiring the best faculty from all top-4 CS schools (CMU, Berkeley, MIT, Stanford), and they certainly produced a lot of papers, and did seem to dominate conferences, but the actual innovation in computing came from Apple and startups, which did not have "research labs". Microsoft, including its giant industrial research lab, certainly was not the driver of innovation in computing! And here are some numbers to back that up: Microsoft's R&D budget in 2011 was 10x the budget of the entire NSF -- for all sciences. Yet, Microsoft was clearly not producing more than 10x the scientific output of all NSF-funded academic science. So it would help to have some statistics for the claim that industrial research innovates more than academic research. They certainly pay more, and often hire more people, but per-capita they don't seem any more productive or healthier than academics.
  - mike_hearn 5y ago
    Ah, right. That gets us into the definitions of innovation and research. Apple does very little research, in the conventional scientific sense we're discussing here, I think that's pretty uncontroversial. They produce few if any papers. They are (or were, under Jobs) very good at coming up with new ideas that strongly appeal to the buyer and which got them a reputation for innovation, but which probably wouldn't be considered clever enough to be research papers. At least not top tier papers. For example, exposé is a widely imitated feature and was considered very innovative at the time, but it wouldn't be seen as serious computer science. The iPhone is/was widely considered innovative but had basically no new research tech in it, given that capacitive touch screens weren't developed by Apple. It was just a really nicely implemented mobile computer. Actually the innovations in the iPhone are nearly all packagings of tech developed by third party firms that Apple then buys or buys exclusivity rights too. At least, that's true in my view. Microsoft's R&D budget I think is also a victim of definitions. Software firms normally report all product development as R&D, right? I think these days they may even report datacenter builds as R&D. We can see this on Microsoft's investor website: "In addition to our main research and development operations, we also operate Microsoft Research. Microsoft Research is one of the world's largest computer science research organizations" i.e. the kind of university type "scientific" research we're discussing here is only a sideshow in Microsoft's R&D budget. You're right to call me out though; I don't have any stats to prove that industrial research does more than academic research. It's not a statistical argument to begin with, just my own own perception ("all seem to"). I read a lot of CS papers and the best ones have corporate email addresses at the top - the second best, a mix of corporate and university addresses, the third best, only university addresses. If you asked the man on the street to name the biggest innovations in computing in the past 20 years they'd probably say things like, uh, smartphones, YouTube, AI, blockchain, etc etc. All things that have little connection to universities, with AI being the closest but it was Google that revived that whole field and has been pushing it forward ever since. Neural nets weren't receiving much investment by the academic community before that. Anyway, that's CS. CS really isn't the problem here. The pseudo-science is elsewhere.

by toomim 5y ago

mike_hearn 5y ago

Hello! Absolutely, drop me an email any time you like. I absolutely agree that a lot of science can be done very cheaply. Some of the most impactful papers were done by people who weren't in an institutional framework, even in the modern era (Satoshi being an obvious example). Additionally it seems most of the really problematic fields are ones where the budget gets dispersed over large number of people writing very cheap low budget papers, hence millions of social science papers with tiny sample sizes. I'm a big supporter of industrial research though. Many great papers come out of industrial labs. Modern computing is practically defined by such research. The big advances all seem to come from big corporate labs (Xerox PARC, Bell Labs, Google, DeepMind, IBM, Sun, Microsoft, etc). The research is powerful because it's funded by people who expect some sort of meaningful results and supervise the work to ensure it doesn't go completely off the rails. Academic institutions have developed this totally hands off attitude that makes research more or less unaccountable to any standard beyond "will it get published", which in turn can be rephrased as "are the claims interesting".

toomim 5y ago
Great! Thank you for the invitation! :) > The big advances all seem to come from big corporate labs That's an interesting claim, and I'd encourage you to find some statistics to verify this hypothesis, because in my experience, that doesn't ring true. From my subjective perspective, it seems that academic and industrial research labs innovate at roughly the same rate per-capita. I was a PhD student when Microsoft was dominant, hiring the best faculty from all top-4 CS schools (CMU, Berkeley, MIT, Stanford), and they certainly produced a lot of papers, and did seem to dominate conferences, but the actual innovation in computing came from Apple and startups, which did not have "research labs". Microsoft, including its giant industrial research lab, certainly was not the driver of innovation in computing! And here are some numbers to back that up: Microsoft's R&D budget in 2011 was 10x the budget of the entire NSF -- for all sciences. Yet, Microsoft was clearly not producing more than 10x the scientific output of all NSF-funded academic science. So it would help to have some statistics for the claim that industrial research innovates more than academic research. They certainly pay more, and often hire more people, but per-capita they don't seem any more productive or healthier than academics.
- mike_hearn 5y ago
  Ah, right. That gets us into the definitions of innovation and research. Apple does very little research, in the conventional scientific sense we're discussing here, I think that's pretty uncontroversial. They produce few if any papers. They are (or were, under Jobs) very good at coming up with new ideas that strongly appeal to the buyer and which got them a reputation for innovation, but which probably wouldn't be considered clever enough to be research papers. At least not top tier papers. For example, exposé is a widely imitated feature and was considered very innovative at the time, but it wouldn't be seen as serious computer science. The iPhone is/was widely considered innovative but had basically no new research tech in it, given that capacitive touch screens weren't developed by Apple. It was just a really nicely implemented mobile computer. Actually the innovations in the iPhone are nearly all packagings of tech developed by third party firms that Apple then buys or buys exclusivity rights too. At least, that's true in my view. Microsoft's R&D budget I think is also a victim of definitions. Software firms normally report all product development as R&D, right? I think these days they may even report datacenter builds as R&D. We can see this on Microsoft's investor website: "In addition to our main research and development operations, we also operate Microsoft Research. Microsoft Research is one of the world's largest computer science research organizations" i.e. the kind of university type "scientific" research we're discussing here is only a sideshow in Microsoft's R&D budget. You're right to call me out though; I don't have any stats to prove that industrial research does more than academic research. It's not a statistical argument to begin with, just my own own perception ("all seem to"). I read a lot of CS papers and the best ones have corporate email addresses at the top - the second best, a mix of corporate and university addresses, the third best, only university addresses. If you asked the man on the street to name the biggest innovations in computing in the past 20 years they'd probably say things like, uh, smartphones, YouTube, AI, blockchain, etc etc. All things that have little connection to universities, with AI being the closest but it was Google that revived that whole field and has been pushing it forward ever since. Neural nets weren't receiving much investment by the academic community before that. Anyway, that's CS. CS really isn't the problem here. The pseudo-science is elsewhere.