4 ms·

> no such thing as too late Go ahead and buy some homes for investment! Go buy some Dogecoin! Some GME! What a low information take, to say something about rur

> no such thing as too late Go ahead and buy some homes for investment! Go buy some Dogecoin! Some GME! What a low information take, to say something about rural homes and Biden or whatever. In the service of curiosity: maybe if you sold your $185,000 home from 1986 for $1.5m today, you’ll walk away a millionaire. A lot of people are looking at that arithmetic in San Francisco. And yet they do not sell! The index for months on market is at record lows. What’s going to really happen? They will watch the market fall, and then say to themselves “guess I should just wait until it goes back up in 10 years.”

mschuster91 5y ago
> They will watch the market fall The market won't fall, that is the entire point. It reasonably cannot fall, since the only politics that could make it fall (buildout of rural infrastructure, overriding NIMBY shit) won't ever pass. Inertia is massive.
- xupybd 5y ago
  The debt in the current world economy is unheard of, and the cost of housing is getting out of reach of first home buyers. Something has to give at some point. If interest rates rise in the next 10 years then I suspect many will be left with mortgage payments they can't afford.
  - mschuster91 5y ago
    > If interest rates rise in the next 10 years then I suspect many will be left with mortgage payments they can't afford. Sure, but there will always be a bigger (Chinese) fish to eat you(r investment). If there is one thing this world does not lack, it's a bunch of individuals and investment funds looking to make money on rent.
    - xupybd 5y ago
      Oof a Chinese land grab after a mortgage crash. That's a bad future. I really hope that doesn't happen.
    - SuoDuanDao 5y ago
      Surely though, it isn't a given rents will stay high in places where they're currently high? No one's trying to make money on rent in, say, Detroit.
- webmaven 5y ago
  > > They will watch the market fall > The market won't fall, that is the entire point. It reasonably cannot fall, since the only politics that could make it fall (buildout of rural infrastructure, overriding NIMBY shit) won't ever pass. Inertia is massive. That's probably overoptimistic. There are political circumstances that could cause metropolitan property values to fall on annual or even decadal timescales. Consider, for example, the possibility of policies that have the effect of curtailing real estate investment by those exfiltrating funds from various regimes. Or policies that made every school a good school, ending the (sometimes huge) price premium homes in 'good' school districts get.
  - bradleyjg 5y ago
    Suppose house prices fall by twenty percent. People will be furious that their can’t lose investment is losing. People in this case being an outright majority of all adult citizens and disproportionately likely to be voters. Politicians will do everything in their power to reverse the trend and keep the good times going. Someday they may find it impossible, but I find it hard to believe we are close to that.
    - webmaven 5y ago
      That 'outright majority' though is being eroded as more people are priced out of the market. If the percentage of renters continues to grow (and property ownership keeps concentrating), you could see that math get flipped on its head (though there is an intermediate stage where 'likely to donate' outweighs 'likely to vote' to keep things as they are). There are other possible policy scenarios, though. Sane densification of suburbia for example seems more likely than massive rural infra buildout.
- monkeydreams 5y ago
  House prices are largely as insane as they are due to the domination of monetary policy. Inflation is eventually going to bite and the slow and painful walk back will begin. As interest rates begin to climb, house prices shall fall. If inflation forces banks to rapidly increase interest rates, house prices will crash.
sombremesa 5y ago
Chiming in as someone who has a few million in liquidity and a few more in real estate: some people buy a house to...you know, actually live in it and stuff. If you sell your primary home out of greed, assuming you otherwise like living there, you are attempting to time the market. That never ends well. Another thing that never works is trying to talk sense on the internet.
- jjav 5y ago
  > Chiming in as someone who has a few million in liquidity and a few more in real estate: some people buy a house to...you know, actually live in it and stuff. > If you sell your primary home out of greed, assuming you otherwise like living there, you are attempting to time the market. Very well said. A home is not a stock to trade, trying to time the market. The point of a home is to live in it. Maybe sell in retirement to downsize. The estimated value fluctuations in the middle decades are not relevant to the homeowner.
  - bradleyjg 5y ago
    That’s the theory but in practice it’s been a rigged casino for 40 years. Of course people have changed their behaviors in response to that longstanding a trend.
jjav 5y ago
> And yet they do not sell! The index for months on market is at record lows. What’s going to really happen? They will watch the market fall, and then say to themselves “guess I should just wait until it goes back up in 10 years.” That's because a home is a place to live. Except for house flippers, nobody is watching the prices as if it were a stock symbol looking for an exit point. It's a home, purpose is to live there.

mschuster91 5y ago

> They will watch the market fall The market won't fall, that is the entire point. It reasonably cannot fall, since the only politics that could make it fall (buildout of rural infrastructure, overriding NIMBY shit) won't ever pass. Inertia is massive.

xupybd 5y ago
The debt in the current world economy is unheard of, and the cost of housing is getting out of reach of first home buyers. Something has to give at some point. If interest rates rise in the next 10 years then I suspect many will be left with mortgage payments they can't afford.
- mschuster91 5y ago
  > If interest rates rise in the next 10 years then I suspect many will be left with mortgage payments they can't afford. Sure, but there will always be a bigger (Chinese) fish to eat you(r investment). If there is one thing this world does not lack, it's a bunch of individuals and investment funds looking to make money on rent.
  - xupybd 5y ago
    Oof a Chinese land grab after a mortgage crash. That's a bad future. I really hope that doesn't happen.
  - SuoDuanDao 5y ago
    Surely though, it isn't a given rents will stay high in places where they're currently high? No one's trying to make money on rent in, say, Detroit.
webmaven 5y ago
> > They will watch the market fall > The market won't fall, that is the entire point. It reasonably cannot fall, since the only politics that could make it fall (buildout of rural infrastructure, overriding NIMBY shit) won't ever pass. Inertia is massive. That's probably overoptimistic. There are political circumstances that could cause metropolitan property values to fall on annual or even decadal timescales. Consider, for example, the possibility of policies that have the effect of curtailing real estate investment by those exfiltrating funds from various regimes. Or policies that made every school a good school, ending the (sometimes huge) price premium homes in 'good' school districts get.
- bradleyjg 5y ago
  Suppose house prices fall by twenty percent. People will be furious that their can’t lose investment is losing. People in this case being an outright majority of all adult citizens and disproportionately likely to be voters. Politicians will do everything in their power to reverse the trend and keep the good times going. Someday they may find it impossible, but I find it hard to believe we are close to that.
  - webmaven 5y ago
    That 'outright majority' though is being eroded as more people are priced out of the market. If the percentage of renters continues to grow (and property ownership keeps concentrating), you could see that math get flipped on its head (though there is an intermediate stage where 'likely to donate' outweighs 'likely to vote' to keep things as they are). There are other possible policy scenarios, though. Sane densification of suburbia for example seems more likely than massive rural infra buildout.
monkeydreams 5y ago
House prices are largely as insane as they are due to the domination of monetary policy. Inflation is eventually going to bite and the slow and painful walk back will begin. As interest rates begin to climb, house prices shall fall. If inflation forces banks to rapidly increase interest rates, house prices will crash.

sombremesa 5y ago

Chiming in as someone who has a few million in liquidity and a few more in real estate: some people buy a house to...you know, actually live in it and stuff. If you sell your primary home out of greed, assuming you otherwise like living there, you are attempting to time the market. That never ends well. Another thing that never works is trying to talk sense on the internet.

jjav 5y ago
> Chiming in as someone who has a few million in liquidity and a few more in real estate: some people buy a house to...you know, actually live in it and stuff. > If you sell your primary home out of greed, assuming you otherwise like living there, you are attempting to time the market. Very well said. A home is not a stock to trade, trying to time the market. The point of a home is to live in it. Maybe sell in retirement to downsize. The estimated value fluctuations in the middle decades are not relevant to the homeowner.
- bradleyjg 5y ago
  That’s the theory but in practice it’s been a rigged casino for 40 years. Of course people have changed their behaviors in response to that longstanding a trend.

jjav 5y ago

> And yet they do not sell! The index for months on market is at record lows. What’s going to really happen? They will watch the market fall, and then say to themselves “guess I should just wait until it goes back up in 10 years.” That's because a home is a place to live. Except for house flippers, nobody is watching the prices as if it were a stock symbol looking for an exit point. It's a home, purpose is to live there.