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I tend to trust state policy and political leanings more as an indicator then a self reported study. Can you please dig into why you trust this self reported st

I tend to trust state policy and political leanings more as an indicator then a self reported study. Can you please dig into why you trust this self reported study on the politically charged mask use question? Especially when the study is performed by academics that is perceived to be too often left-wing activists by republicans and many libertarians? (And according to Haidt have a provably largely left leaning bias) Self reported results are prone to preference falsification and hidden bias in whom answers. (“Yes, mom, I did my homework” ;) ) Self reported results of politically charged questions are effectively polls. To indicate the problem you can observed how inaccurate polls around politically charged choices has become when compared to actual choices. The normal problems with self reported results are probably aggravated by how academics, major authorities, media, and tech companies have openly without cover used force to promote the “right” answer and suppressed the “wrong”. The use of force to enforce specific conclusions had been an extraordinary and very noticeable break from western traditions.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> I tend to trust state policy and political leanings more as an indicator then a self reported study. I don’t, in the absence of strong enforcement of policy (which did not exist in, e g., California COVID policy), especially on issues of strong partisan posturing; even solid red or blue states tend to be pretty closely balanced in the population; majoritarianism, reinforced by gerrymandering and related mechanisms, produces strong and durable political dominance from slight population imbalances, so “state dominant party” stereotypes and state policy vastly exaggerate differences in distribution of individual belief, preference, and, in the absence of effective compulsion, behavior. > To indicate the problem you can observed how inaccurate polls around politically charged choices has become when compared to actual choices. They...haven’t, really, become particularly inaccurate. Poll-based predictions of binary outcomes of things that poll very close to even have become somewhat less reliable than they very briefly were before (they were a fairly new practice compared to just reporting polls without predictions, anyway, so its not like there was a well-established baseline) because when polls are near even, very slight changes in accuracy have an outsize effect on binary predictions.

dragonwriter 5y ago

> I tend to trust state policy and political leanings more as an indicator then a self reported study. I don’t, in the absence of strong enforcement of policy (which did not exist in, e g., California COVID policy), especially on issues of strong partisan posturing; even solid red or blue states tend to be pretty closely balanced in the population; majoritarianism, reinforced by gerrymandering and related mechanisms, produces strong and durable political dominance from slight population imbalances, so “state dominant party” stereotypes and state policy vastly exaggerate differences in distribution of individual belief, preference, and, in the absence of effective compulsion, behavior. > To indicate the problem you can observed how inaccurate polls around politically charged choices has become when compared to actual choices. They...haven’t, really, become particularly inaccurate. Poll-based predictions of binary outcomes of things that poll very close to even have become somewhat less reliable than they very briefly were before (they were a fairly new practice compared to just reporting polls without predictions, anyway, so its not like there was a well-established baseline) because when polls are near even, very slight changes in accuracy have an outsize effect on binary predictions.