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My general take is that it's not worth it. Professional traders will beat you to it, and you're looking at maybe a 1% drop. * If it goes up, you lose money. *

My general take is that it's not worth it. Professional traders will beat you to it, and you're looking at maybe a 1% drop. * If it goes up, you lose money. * If it goes down, and you have $100k invested, you make $1k. $1k is 3 hours consulting time for a SWE. It seems easier to find consulting gigs and consult for 3 hours than to play the market. Unless I have specialized knowledge on a particular industry beyond what pros do, I'm index funds, all the way. Those annual gains are helpful. Micromanagement pays less than a typical salary, or investing in up-skilling.

johnsimer 5y ago
There are plenty of ways for your gains to be X multiple of the % change in the underlying stock
CheezeIt 5y ago
You often do have specialized knowledge. Possible past examples: 1. Buying puts before the coming stock market crash back in January 2020. 2. Buying calls in WDC and STX after reading on HN about Chia Coin and hard drive prices, in early May, if you weren’t already aware in April. It was not a sure thing because prices move for other reasons, but a very very positive EV, and a great diversification of a crypto position.
- hakfoo 5y ago
  I've rode a few hundred dollars investment in AMD for over a decade, and it would now buy a servicable used car. The primary logic was "they're too important from a regulation perspective to fail." Even at the worst days of buggy original-stepping Phenoms and sort-of-eight-core Bulldozer chips, the day AMD shuts down is the day every anti-trust regulator in the universe comes tumbling down on Intel. I suspect it's still a viable theory even today; I can't really imagine Intel being willing to argue in court that the real competition for the future of desktop and bigger computing is things like RISC-V and ARM parts, products they have a history of not competing with effectively.
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johnsimer 5y ago

There are plenty of ways for your gains to be X multiple of the % change in the underlying stock

CheezeIt 5y ago

You often do have specialized knowledge. Possible past examples: 1. Buying puts before the coming stock market crash back in January 2020. 2. Buying calls in WDC and STX after reading on HN about Chia Coin and hard drive prices, in early May, if you weren’t already aware in April. It was not a sure thing because prices move for other reasons, but a very very positive EV, and a great diversification of a crypto position.

hakfoo 5y ago
I've rode a few hundred dollars investment in AMD for over a decade, and it would now buy a servicable used car. The primary logic was "they're too important from a regulation perspective to fail." Even at the worst days of buggy original-stepping Phenoms and sort-of-eight-core Bulldozer chips, the day AMD shuts down is the day every anti-trust regulator in the universe comes tumbling down on Intel. I suspect it's still a viable theory even today; I can't really imagine Intel being willing to argue in court that the real competition for the future of desktop and bigger computing is things like RISC-V and ARM parts, products they have a history of not competing with effectively.

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